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Security ratings
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Editor's note: These rating are from 1-5 based on the following:
1 -- Get your bags packed
2 -- Start updating your résumé
3 -- Secure ... for now
4 -- Buy the house
5 -- Total security
-- incomplete
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Bill Belichick, New England: Has one Super Bowl ring and his team is playing like it wants another. During the ugly losing streak early in the season, Belichick seemed panicked publicly, but his players insist he kept them on an even keel. Still not a coach of great social ease, and his cryptic nature diminishes the fact he is one of the brightest minds in the league, but he has grown much the past two years.
Security level: 5
Brian Billick, Baltimore: Loves rubbing the media's noses in it when he is successful. Given the masterful job he has done this year, coach Know It All has earned the right to gloat. Got an extension last offseason and has deftly nurtured the NFL's youngest roster through the '02 rebuilding period.
Security level: 4
Bill Callahan, Oakland: Has gone from a first-time sideline boss some feared might be fired in the preseason by hands-on owner Al Davis to a legitimate coach of the year candidate. Not bad for a rookie. Has proven to be more than just Jon Gruden's caddie. The naysayers felt he didn't know the offense well enough even though he held the title of offensive coordinator, but he has out-Grudened his former boss. Because of who the owner is here, though, he'll never be completely safe.
Security level: 3
Dave Campo, Dallas: Ever since he assumed the coaching reins three years ago, the perception has been that Campo is merely keeping the seat warm for a big-name guy. There could be some truth to that, but owner Jerry Jones truly likes Campo, would just as soon not make a change during the coming offseason and probably won't. But the collapse of last Sunday could prompt Jones to revisit that stance.
Security level: 2
Dom Capers, Houston: Meticulously detailed. Supremely organized. Is willing to put in the long hours, which is what it takes to build a team from the ground up. Went to the conference championship game in his second season with the then-expansion Carolina Panthers and, while he won't repeat that with the Texas, is in solid.
Security level: 5
Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville: It's a coaching truism that everybody eventually outlives his welcome. With last Sunday's stunning loss to the Cleveland Browns on a "Hail Mary" play, it's becoming increasingly clear that might be the case here. Owner Wayne Weaver has championed his coach's cause for a long time. Even he was critical of the staff, though, following Sunday's loss. A week ago, Weaver told a local newspaper he intended to have Coughlin back in 2003. Now his resolve doesn't appear to be as certain.
Security level: 2
Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh: No doubt the Steelers have underachieved in a season when most pundits felt they were Super Bowl material again. But the Rooney family is loathe to fire coaches and, remember, they opted to retain Cowher over former director of football operations Tom Donahoe a couple of years ago. The dean of NFL head coaches, in his 11th season with the same team, but a stumble in the final three weeks could mean the Steelers miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.
Security level: 4
Butch Davis, Cleveland: Flipped his lid when Dwayne Rudd tossed his helmet, then lost quarterback Tim Couch in the first month of the season. But Davis has recovered to get his team into playoff contention. Tough-minded coach who expects that same attitude from his players. Gaining considerable clout in the organization and, with the death of owner Al Lerner, he should continue to strengthen his power base.
Security level: 5
Tony Dungy, Indianapolis: His first year with the Colts has been a roller coaster ride of sorts, but the team remains in the playoff hunt and he has fixed a previously miserable defense. A man who gets back in turn the respect he demonstrates toward his players.
Security level: 5
Herman Edwards, New York Jets: An amazingly candid coach who isn't above public bantering with the media and will call out his players when they need it. Articulate and brutally frank. Will remain above the fray at times, or jump into the middle of it if he feels he must. Recent hot streak has quieted his few detractors.
Security level: 5
Jim Fassel, New York Giants: One of the nicest guys in the league, but with a tough streak some people don't see. His future probably will be decided by the outcomes of the final three games. It has been an up-and-down season, one that mirrors where he seems to stand from one week to the next. But give him credit for having a team of modest talent still in the hunt for a wild-card spot.
Security level: incomplete
Jeff Fisher, Tennessee: Doesn't get nearly the credit he deserves, even from Titans management, for being one of the game's best coaches. Known as a player's coach, played in the league, good at doing the little things that seem to make a difference with his charges. Definitely knows how to roll with the punches.
Security level: 4
John Fox, Carolina: Like most new coaches, probably overestimated the talent level of his team. Only other mistake might be the uneven handling of off-field problems. You can't lionize a guy one week and then, when he gets in trouble, characterize him as an inherited problem. For the most part, a stand-up guy. He chose his assistants well and put together an excellent defense in a short period of time.
Security level: 4
Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay: The rubber-faced one hasn't won in the manner he wanted, and has been forced to count on his defense, as did predecessor Tony Dungy. But the bottom line is that he has won, there is promise of a trip deep into the playoffs, and the fans love Gruden and his sideline antics. Ownership turned a potentially embarrassing situation into a plus with his hiring. Look for Gruden to seek more control over personnel matters next year and to likely get it.
Security level: 5
Jim Haslett, New Orleans: Players seem to like the fact he gambles so much -- like trying a two-point conversion with the score 6-2 in the second quarter against Tampa Bay -- but those same players quit on him at the end of last year. He and management did a good offseason job of addition by subtraction and the decision to trade Ricky Williams and elevate Deuce McAllister to the lead tailback role was a stroke of genius. Passionate and emotional, and sometimes those emotions get in the way.
Security level: 4
Mike Holmgren, Seattle: If you believe all the rumors, he's gone and the Seahawks will have a more conventional coach-general manager football model in 2003. But the Seahawks have demonstrated some life lately, there have been some mitigating circumstances in 2002, and owner Paul Allen has never hinted a change is coming. Team president Bob Whitsitt is said to prefer some kind of shakeup, at least in Holmgren's job description, but that is simply scuttlebutt as well.
Security level: incomplete
Dick Jauron, Chicago: If he wants to depart, like to Cincinnati where he might have more clout, Bears officials won't bolt the door on him. But the combination of distractions and injuries this year have dictated he get one more season to prove that 2001 was no fluke. Even then, he might have to make some staffing changes, like dumping offensive coordinator John Shoop. If the Bears struggle in 2003, management won't be as generous as it is being this year.
Security level: 3
Dick LeBeau, Cincinnati: Players like to verbalize their admiration for a guy whose credentials as a player should have merited some Hall of Fame consideration, but their actions don't mirror their words. Old-school owner Mike Brown loathes firing coaches but doesn't owe LeBeau anything on his contract,. Brown doesn't typically heed public pressure, but it will be hard to avoid making a change.
Security level: 1
Steve Mariucci, San Francisco: There seems to be a surprise coaching change every offseason and, given his contract status, Mariucci could be the surprise this time around. While his onetime rift with the front office over control or lack of seems less pronounced now, the fact remains that he is entering the final season of his contract in 2003 and won't want to be a lame duck. The 49ers likely will sit down with him at year's end to talk about an extension, and he'll wield a stronger hand if his team stays deep in the playoffs. This is a situation to watch.
Security level: 3
Mike Martz, St. Louis: Since he got a lucrative extension in the offseason, Martz isn't going anywhere soon, but some members of management will view him with closer scrutiny now because of this year's collapse. Martz may have to make some staffing alterations and the front office could ask him to bring in an offensive coordinator to help reduce the amount of time he puts in on a given week.
Security level: 3
Dave McGinnis, Arizona: Terrific guy, solid motivator, and has the support of ownership. Doesn't hurt his standing with management that he went door to door to solicit support for a new stadium. But if he doesn't notch enough wins in 2003 to start putting customers in the seats, McGinnis could start to see his solid footing begin to erode.
Security level: 3
Marty Mornhinweg, Detroit: Five wins in two seasons. 'Nuff said? Uh, not quite. One of the two dozen defeats came in a game where he opted to kick off after winning the overtime coin flip. Oh, yeah, his team was beaten Sunday by the miserable Arizona Cardinals. In his first camp, Mornhinweg tried to motivate his team after a poor practice by storming off on his motorcycle. He might want to keep the engine running.
Security level: 1
Dan Reeves, Atlanta: The winningest active NFL coach ranks sixth in all-time victories, and this season certainly enhanced his Hall of Fame chances. Health concerns of recent seasons don't seem to be much of a factor now. This is just his second winning season in the last eight, but he has done such a marvelous job, he has kicked the wolves away from the door. New owner Arthur Blank can't make a change now.
Security level: 4
Andy Reid, Philadelphia: Terrific job, worthy of coach of the year honors, and magnified by winning three straight games now with backups playing in place of Donovan McNabb. The Eagles could get home-field advantage, and no one wants to play at decrepit and chilly Veterans Stadium in January. Has considerable clout in the organization, beloved by ownership and isn't going anywhere for a long time.
Security level: 5
Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego: The Chargers haven't performed nearly as well in the second half of the season, in part because the schedule is so much more difficult, but Schottenheimer has promulgated his usual degree of quick fix. Where other teams have sometimes tuned out his message, the Chargers have embraced it, and he won his preseason gamble in choosing second-year quarterback Drew Brees over Doug Flutie.
Security level: 4
Mike Shanahan, Denver: Hard working and detail-oriented, but record doesn't match his reputation, and hasn't for a few years. It would be fair to say the Broncos have underachieved in 2002 and, while that won't put him in any jeopardy, some staffing changes might be in order. Notable is that the Broncos have been a mediocre franchise since their Super Bowl XXXIII win.
Security level: 4
Mike Sherrman, Green Bay: The doubters wondered if he could succeed while holding the dual titles of coach and general manager. By carefully delineating and delegating, he has succeeded, and then some. Doesn't get nearly the credit he deserves. Always well prepared and has dealt this year with plenty of adversity.
Security level: 5
Steve Spurrier, Washington: So , The Ol' Ball Coach has found the NFL to be a little more daunting than he thought. No big deal. Spurrier is going to be successful eventually. It just remains to be seen when "eventually" comes. Owner Dan Snyder is extremely defensive when anyone mentions Spurrier's foibles. He loves the guy.
Security level: 5
Mike Tice, Minnesota: Hey, that "Randy Ratio" thing really worked out nicely, didn't it? Actually, the Vikings have been more competitive than their record indicates and have lost more than their share of close games. But that's an indictment as much as it is a plus, especially in a league where you've got to win close games to be good. His future might well depend on who owns the franchise in 2003.
Security level: 3
Dick Vermeil, Kansas City: Next year might be the last season for him, and if it is, he could go out with a bang. Vermeil and his offensive staff have put together the most explosive attack in the league. Had the Chiefs played a little defense in the fourth quarter of earlier games, they might be fighting for a playoff spot. All this and no tears -- a big plus.
Security level: 4
Dave Wannstedt, Miami: A more pragmatic head coach in his second incarnation. There is never, even during the annual losing streaks, any doubt that he gets charges to play hard. Has become a markedly better coach now that he has splendid assistance from Rick Spielman on personnel matters. Yeah, the Dolphins still nose-dive too often, but their coach prepares them well and figures to be around South Florida for a long time.
Security level: 5
Gregg Williams, Buffalo: There continues to be rumbling that he might be in trouble if the Bills don't finish at .500. Those rumors are unsubstantiated, and while some of his decision-making can be scrutinized, he figures to have a playoff contender by 2003. Of course, if he doesn't then he might have some concerns.
Security level: 3
Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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