The debate currently raging in the Twin Cities concerns which of the
Minnesota Vikings' big four -- Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Robert Smith or
Daunte Culpepper -- is the most valuable player on the team that has the best record in the NFL.
|  | | Detroit's Stoney Case (15) gets sacked for an 8-yard loss by Minnesota's Chris Hovan (99). |
But while the locals discuss the relative merits of the primary ballhandlers on a Minnesota team that is 11-2 and steamrolling toward the
playoffs, they are missing the point.
It is defense, not offense, that will determine whether the Vikings become Super Bowl champions or just another in a long line of playoff failures under coach Dennis Green.
That's because the Vikings are the quintessential NFL team of the new
millenium. Their offense is state-of-the-art, and their defense is just good
enough to get by. They hope.
Except for the color of the uniforms, you can't tell the Vikings from the
Rams or the Colts or the Broncos or any of the teams that have all their
skill positions covered with big-time playmakers. The Vikings' modus operandi
is similar, too. Get an early lead, make the opposing offense become
one-dimensional and then outscore them in a shootout.
In a league filled with teams that are strong on either offense or defense
but not both, that might be enough to win a championship. However, history
tell us it's not. Until some team proves otherwise, defense still wins
championships.
That's a problem for the Vikings.
Sure, their defense is playing better football lately. It has allowed only
16.7 points per game during the team's current four-game winning streak, or
about a touchdown less than it did during the first nine games.
It is even starting to do the things that Vikings defenses traditionally
do, which is rush the passer and force turnovers. Led by John Randle, rejuvenated after a switch to end, the Vikings have 13 sacks in their last
four games after getting 17 in their first nine. They have five interceptions
in the last four games after picking off two in the first nine.
But before anyone starts calling this defense the Purple People Eaters,
look at who it has played. In their last four games, the Vikings have faced
the Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys and Lions, all teams with offenses ranked
18th or below in the NFL and all teams with serious injury-related
deficiencies on offense.
In fact, the Vikings' 18th ranking in yards allowed looks very flimsy when
you consider who they've played all season. The best offensive team the
Vikings have faced was the Bills, who are ranked only 14th. Nine of their 13
opponents have offenses ranked in the lower third of the league.
The most damning statistic is that Minnesota's defense ranks only 25th
against the pass, mainly because starters Robert Tate and Kenny Wright and
nickel back Keith Thibodeaux are the worst group of cover corners in the NFL.
Tate is a converted wide receiver in his first year as a starter, and Wright,
who lost his job when the Vikings signed washed-up Cris Dishman just before
the regular season, regained it only because Dishman was so bad he was
released a few weeks ago.
The only thing saving the Vikings' defense is their high-powered offense,
which routinely gives it the lead, and the safety-first schemes of defensive
coordinator Emmitt Thomas. With no confidence in their cornerbacks, the
Vikings play the softest coverage in the league. They try to keep everything
in front of them and make teams nickel-and-dime their way down the field.
"It's like we've been saying all along," Thomas told the Minneapolis Star
Tribune. "We're not the type of defense where we can just go out there and
smash people. We're going to have to pick our spots. There will be some
situations where we can go and get after people. And there will be times when
we have to bleed them a little bit and try to keep the point total down."
Lately, that approach has worked, although mostly against lackluster
offenses. But it will be sorely tested in the final three games -- at St.
Louis, Green Bay at home and at Indianapolis.
The second-biggest problem with the defense is that the front seven, while
quite talented, is vulnerable to the run due to its lack of size. Only three
teams in the NFL allow more than Minnesota's 4.5 yards per carry. Most teams
abandon the run because they fall behind the Vikings -- hence, their No. 12
ranking against the run -- but a team that keeps it close can exploit them on
the ground. Somewhere along the line, that's going to happen.
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We think we're playing much better pass defense. We're getting a better pass rush. We're hanging in there against the rush. We're clearly better than a 13-game rating would indicate. ” |
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— Dennis Green, Vikings head coach |
Green's spin on his defense is that it looks much better on the field than
it does in the league statistics. He says he's only concerned about what the
defense has done lately and that it is now playing above its No. 18 ranking.
"We think we're playing much better pass defense," Green said. "We're
getting a better pass rush. We're hanging in there against the rush. We're
clearly better than a 13-game rating would indicate."
We'll find out Sunday at St. Louis. The Rams' offense is struggling a bit,
but quarterback Kurt Warner has a game under his belt since returning from a broken pinky finger, and wide receivers Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and Az-Zahir
Hakim will provide a true reading on whether Green's cornerbacks are good
enough to win a Super Bowl.
In the last five years, the team that won the Super Bowl has twice had the
best offense in the league and has never finished lower than fifth. The
Vikings, currently fourth in the NFL in offense, fit the profile.
Also in the last five years, the team that won the Super Bowl has been
first in defense once and has never been lower than 11th. That is where the
Vikings don't match up. At 18th, they don't project as a team that can win
three or four tough playoff games in a row.
Just think back to 1998, the last time the Vikings had the best record in
the NFL. That year, they were second in offense and 13th in defense en route
to a 15-1 record. Many thought they were invincible.
However, that team didn't reach the Super Bowl. Unless Minnesota's recent
defensive improvement is legitimate, this one won't, either.
Reid's gutsy call draws bellyaches
Eagles coach Andy Reid is finding out why the Philadelphia media and fans
are considered the toughest tandem in sports, with the possible exception of
Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
|  | | Andy Reid was criticized for a last-minute playcall. |
When Reid stunned the Cowboys in the season opener by beginning the game
with a successful onside kick, a ploy that set the tone for a 41-14 Eagles
victory, his aggressiveness was praised from one end of Broad Street to the
other.
However, when Reid bypassed a running play that would have taken time off
the clock and instead called a passing play on third-and-9 late in
Sunday's 15-13 loss to the Titans, he was universally panned for -- you
guessed it -- his aggressiveness.
The Eagles were clinging to a 13-12 lead with 2:30 to play and Reid called
two running plays, which gained one yard and took the clock to the two-minute
warning. So far, so good. But Reid faced a decision.
Since Tennessee was out of timeouts, a third-down run probably would have
taken about 45 seconds off the clock before the Eagles had to punt. Instead,
Reid had Donovan McNabb throw a pass over the middle that, if complete, would close out the Titans. It wasn't complete, of course, and it stopped the clock, giving the Titans the ball back with 1:43 to play. Al Del Greco then kicked a 50-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Eagles.
"I've had time to think about it, and I would do the same thing over again,"
Reid said the day after the game. "I've established an aggressive attitude
here. That's the way I like a football game to be played."
So far, that approach has yielded a 9-5 record, which, in the minds of most
non-Philadelphians, is a considerable improvement over the 8-24 mark of the
previous two seasons.
Giants' Fassel tightens up the fort
If coach Jim Fassel continues his sudden transformation from Mister Peepers
to John Wayne, the Giants' next step will be to revoke the press credentials
of every reporter in New York.
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| Fassel |
As it stands, the only two people in New York who can speak on the record
any more are Fassel and the mayor. And we think Fassel's going to slap a gag
order on the mayor next.
But as long as the Giants keep winning, it appears Fassel will continue to
flex his new-found muscles. He has closed the ranks in the past few weeks,
first guaranteeing a playoff berth, then putting a limited gag order on his
players and, most recently, forbidding his assistant coaches to speak with
the media.
Since Fassel emerged from his shell, the Giants have won two games to move
into first place in the NFC East. They can clinch the division title by
winning two of their last three games.
"This is the right thing to do," Fassel said. "I'm drawing a hard line on a
lot of things, and I am going to hold the line. If people don't like it, I'll
take the criticism. I'm more than happy to take the criticism."
Here's a prediction: If it's criticism Fassel wants, it's criticism he'll
get -- right about the time the Giants lose their next game.
Carson puts D back in defending champs
When the Rams hired defensive guru Bud Carson as a consultant on Oct. 21,
many thought he would call the signals for St. Louis' beleaguered defense.
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| Martz |
He didn't, at least not until last week. But with Carson finally running
the meetings and calling the shots instead of coordinator Pete Giunta, the
Rams held the Panthers' offense to three field goals and sacked Steve
Beuerlein seven times, their best defensive effort of the season.
Unfortunately, the Rams' offense scored only three points, its first
under-20 output since 1998, and the team lost for the fifth time in seven
games after a 6-0 start. However, there is hope for the defending Super Bowl
champions, mainly because Carson has simplified the defense and turned it
loose.
"They flew to the ball, they tackled very well, they were physical, they
were in tight coverage," Rams coach Mike Martz said.
In other words, they did all the things they hadn't been doing all season
en route to allowing the most points (29.5 per game) in the NFL. All of which
begs the question: If Carson had been given carte blanche when he was lured
out of retirement six weeks ago, where would the Rams be now?
Probably not on the outside looking in. If the season ended today, the Rams
would be the seventh team in line for six NFC playoff spots.
Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes a weekly NFC column every Thursday for ESPN.com.
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ALSO SEE
AFC: Titans should win race for No. 1
Game of the Week: Vikings at Rams
The catch to Carter's career: It's incomplete
Focal Point: Daunte Culpepper vs. Kurt Warner
Rams, Warner face must-win situation
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