Just a couple of weeks ago, football writers from all over the country were
planning their January coverage plans for the Bay Area, where it looked like
a lock that the Oakland Raiders would own the home-field advantage throughout
the AFC playoffs.
|  | | Sebastian Janikowski missed a game-winning, 44-yard field goal in the Raiders' 21-20 loss to Pittsburgh. |
Not so fast with the plane reservations.
Suddenly, the top spot in the AFC, which looked to be Oakland's conference,
is completely up for grabs. Thanks to the Raiders' stumble in which they've lost two of their
last four, there are three teams at 10-3 and three at 9-4 entering this weekend's play.
Any combination of things can happen in these final three
regular-season weeks.
The Raiders enter Sunday night's ESPN game against the Jets at 10-3, while
the Jets are 9-4 and breathing on the necks of the 10-3 Dolphins.
The other 10-3 team is Tennessee, which we believe is the best, deepest,
most balanced and sound team in the conference and the team we believe will
represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season.
The Raiders, though, think they have the right stuff to turn things around.
"Maybe this will be good for us," Raiders guard Steve Wisniewski said of last week's loss to the Steelers. "With three games left to go, maybe it will be a kick in the pants."
"I don't think guys are overly hurt by this loss, but disappointed, definitely," Raiders linebacker Greg Biekert said. "But you have to deal with it. We have to put it behind us, no matter how much you want to dwell on it. I think everybody in here is still comfortable that we're going to win the rest of our games."
The problem for the Raiders is this: The Denver Broncos and the schedule.
Should Oakland slip into a tie with the Broncos, they'd lose the tiebreaker
because Denver (as usual) swept the season series.
Now, the schedule. The Broncos' remaining games include 5-8 Seattle Sunday,
5-8 Kansas City next week and 5-8 San Francisco in the finale. The Broncos
will be favored to win all three, meaning a 12-4 finish is well within reach.
The Raiders play the surging Jets Sunday night, and then play Seattle and
6-7 Carolina, which can be a dangerous team. There is pressure on Oakland to
win out.
In the AFC East, the Jets and Dolphins are in a similar situation. Miami
leads the Jets by a game, but the Jets have already swept the season series.
The Dolphins' remaining games include 8-5 Tampa Bay on Sunday, 7-6 Indianapolis
and then 4-9 New England, which is always tough on division opponents.
The Jets, though, have the toughest remaining schedule of any AFC contender,
with games against the Raiders, 8-5 Detroit and 9-4 Baltimore on the road on
Christmas Eve to close out the regular season. Even though the Jets have won
their last three, winning their next three will be a difficult task.
The team with the easiest remaining ride is Tennessee. The Titans play 3-10
Cincinnati on Sunday, then have 3-11 Cleveland and 4-9 Dallas. They would have
to miss a plane on Sunday to not finish at 13-3.
The Ravens, too, have it easy -- until the season finale against the Jets, at
least. They play the 1-12 Chargers on Sunday and then 3-10 Arizona before the
Jets.
So the way things will likely shake out is Tennessee winning the
home-field edge at 13-3, because neither Oakland nor Miami will is likely to
win their remaining three games and the Jets, Denver and Baltimore cannot get
to 13-3.
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We're looking for bigger things. We're not just looking for a wild-card berth. We're looking for the division (title). ” |
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— Victor Green, Jets safety |
The races for the division titles in each case, though, are likely to -- as
Jets coach Al Groh said a few weeks ago -- not be decided "until Santa comes
down the chimney."
We look for the Jets to tie Miami at the top of the AFC East and, by virtue
of their season series sweep, win the East. Tennessee will win the Central
and Denver will overtake the Raiders, winning out on a tiebreaker.
Baltimore and Oakland are wild-card locks, leaving Buffalo, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh out of the playoff picture.
"We're looking for bigger things," Jets safety Victor Green said. "We're not just looking for a wild-card berth. We're looking for the division (title)."
While the Raiders have lost two of their last four, the Jets enter the game
having won three in a row, turning their season around with a renewed
commitment to defense.
In the last three games, the Jets have forced 10 turnovers after forcing a
total of 21 in the first 10 games. The Jets' third-down defense has improved dramatically, too. After 10 games their
defense allowed a horrendous 44 percent conversion rate. In the last three
games, that number has been 35 percent.
In the big-play department, the Jets allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more
yards in the first 10 games. In the last three, they've allowed one -- last
weekend's 43-yard Peyton Manning touchdown pass to Terrence Wilkins.
"If we continue to play good defense, we're going to be hard to beat,"
Green said.
A run on 200-yard games
One thing that'll go a long way toward the Super Bowl will be strong running games.
In the 15 NFL games played last weekend, the team that rushed for more yards
won 11 games. There were also an NFL-record four 200-yard rushers last Sunday
-- Denver's Mike Anderson (251 yards), Cincinnati's Corey Dillon (216), Tampa
Bay's Warrick Dunn (210) and the Jets' Curtis Martin (203).
Not surprisingly, their teams all won.
Martin remains in background
Speaking of the underrated Martin, it was completely fitting and ironic that
on the day when he played the game of his life, setting personal and
franchise records with his 203 yards, three other players eclipsed the
200-yard mark, thus overshadowing him.
|  | | Curtis Martin ran for a Jets-record 203 yards -- the same day three other backs ran for 200-plus yards. |
"Typical," Jets center Kevin Mawae said. "Curtis just goes out and does his job and does his work, and the fact that three other guys go out and do
the same thing on the same day just kind of keeps him hidden a little bit.
"That's the way Curtis would have it. That's the kind of player and person
he is. He'd rather not have anybody know about it."
Groh saw the irony in the NFL record of four backs rushing for 200-plus yards
on one Sunday.
"When he has that kind of day, somehow the full spotlight fails to be on
him," Groh said. "Curtis is very self-assured in his awareness of what he
contributes to his team and that he's one of the better players in the
league.
"One of the things maybe you grow into and learn at a certain point is that
the best medals you get in life are the ones you give to yourself."
Vinny Testaverde called it "weird" that Martin's supposed spotlight day was overtaken by three other backs.
"But," Testaverde said, "if he gains 203 yards and is the fourth-best
rusher in the league every week, we'll take it."
Testaverde said he believes Martin's accolades "will come in time."
"It would be nice to win a championship and then everybody will know about Curtis Martin and what he's done for this team. Hopefully in time he'll get his due props."
Martin didn't get his due last year, failing to be voted to the Pro Bowl despite rushing for the second-most yards in the NFL (1,464 yards to Indy's Edgerrin James' 1,553).
All Martin has done this year is get better. After rigorous offseason
training on his pass receiving skills, with three games to go, Martin already
has a career-high 52 receptions (six more than his previous career high).
"Curtis Martin is as versatile and complete a player as we've seen all year," Raiders coach Jon Gruden said.
Still, Martin is one of the most overlooked stars in the NFL. Why he doesn't
receive the recognition around the league and from the fans is hard to place
a finger on. Perhaps it's because Martin isn't commercial. He doesn't sell
Chunky Soup on TV. He isn't a self-promoter.
Martin's quiet and humble nature is one tangible reason for his lack of
spotlight appeal.
Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post writes an AFC notebook every Thursday for ESPN.com.
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