Ron Jaworski
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 Monday, November 29
Packers' balance still off
 
By Ron Jaworski
Special to ESPN.com

 Of the two former NFC kingpins meeting in Monday night's matchup, the Green Bay Packers are clearly playing better football than the struggling San Francisco 49ers. But the Packers aren't without their share of problems.

Dorsey Levens
Dorsey Levens has caught a total of 18 passes the last two weeks.
The Green Bay offense has lost its balance between the run and the pass. They have thrown the ball 410 times, compared to only 237 runs. The play-calling disparity indicates too much reliance on Brett Favre. Favre no longer has tight end Mark Chmura, who was historically his go-to guy. Working with new receivers Corey Bradford and Bill Schroeder, the chemistry has yet to develop. Favre's thumb injury has been a problem, but in the Packers' style of offense, the players need to have a feel for each other. It's hard to develop an esprit de corps with new people in an offense.

Last week's game against Detroit was Favre's best of the season. He didn't try to run around and make plays. Instead, he showed awareness and presence in the pocket. He made his reads downfield, not forcing the ball, and dumping it off to his running backs -- 10 times to Dorsey Levens and four times to William Henderson. Taking the dumpoffs, particularly in the first half, had a positive effect because he was then able to throw downfield. He used all his weapons.

The absence of Reggie White, however, has hurt the Packers defense. They lack a player up front who can give the team a push and command a double-team so the other linemen can face single blocks. Thus, they are not getting pressure on the quarterback. Their 20 sacks are tied with four other teams for the second-worst mark in the league.

George Koonce, Bernardo Harris and Jude Waddy are solid linebackers, but they are not versatile players who are effective in blitzes. When the Packers blitz their linebackes, they have been vulnerable because their secondary hasn't been sharp, especially free safety Darren Sharper, who needs to pick his game up. He just seems to lack the sideline to sideline movement needed from a free safety. Strong safety LeRoy Butler is really banged up and can't be used as much in blitz schemes.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have problems nearly everywhere, beginning with their offensive inconsistency. Nevertheless, running back Charlie Garner is having a terrific season, providing the 49ers with a solid ground game. They are averaging 118 yards a game and 4.7 yards per carry, which is second in the league.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
Eight is not enough: Brett Favre is on pace to throw for 3,000 yards for the eighth consecutive season, leaving him one behind Dan Marino for the NFL record.

The new iron man: Favre will add to his NFL-record streak for consecutive starts by a quarterback when he takes the field for the 120th straight game.

Old glory: With victory streaks falling every week for the Niners, San Francisco still has a nine-game winning streak on Monday Night Football.

What has hurt the 49ers the most is inconsistent quarterback play. Plus, their receivers aren't playing as well as in the past. Jerry Rice, the greatest receiver of all time, needs to move on. He no longer has the ability to get off the line of scrimmage. He has been handled in single coverage. Age catches up to all of us, and it has caught up to Rice. Looking at the tape and talking to defensive coaches around the league, they feel Rice doesn't command the double coverage he once did. Even if a corner gets beat in a bump-and-run situation, he doesn't have the separation speed to run away from him. He doesn't strike fear in the hearts of defenses anymore.

On defense, the 49ers appear old and slow, lacking the speed and quickness to make plays. Last week, they went through their sixth and seventh starting cornerbacks, and Monty Montgomery and Ramos McDonald actually did a pretty decent job against St. Louis. But overall, they have been unable to cover people all season. The inability of the defensive line to get quick pass-rush pressure has really put the cornerbacks on an island.

Strong safety Tim McDonald, a tremendous run defender, is only adequate in pass coverage. Free safety Lance Schulters is tied for the league lead with six interceptions because he has good ball awareness and reads the quarterback's eyes. However, when facing single coverage against a receiver, he can be exposed. Teams have exposed him with formation variation, people have been able to expose him.

Here are the keys to Monday night's game for both teams:

Green Bay Packers
1. Pressure the QB: The 49ers offensive line has struggled throughout the season. They have moved people in and out of the lineup and have lacked consistency. This game will be won or lost in the trenches. If the Packers can pressure Steve Stenstrom with their four down linemen, it will be easier for them to play defense as a whole. If they have to blitz linebackers and safeties, that will single up their corners against the 49ers receivers and present problems for them. The pressure must come from the front four, and no more than five, so the safeties can remain in center field and guard against the big play.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Packers QB Brett Favre: Last week, Favre said his right thumb was healthy for the first time since he injured it in the preseason. Look for him to continue to get back on track -- as long as he doesn't hit the thumb on anything else.

Packers RB Dorsey Levens: He is the Packers' ground game. Levens has made 206 of Green Bay's 217 carries by its running backs. He also leads the team in receptions with 51 -- 12 more than Jerry Rice.

Packers LB June Waddy: He replaces the injured Brian Williams at a key spot in the Green Bay defense.

49ers WR Jerry Rice: The greatest receiver in NFL history is perceived as the No. 3 receiver for the '99 Niners. But, surprisingly, Rice still leads the team with 39 receptions.

49ers RB Charlie Garner: The career third-down back has become the No. 1 rusher for the 49ers. With Lawrence Phillips' release, Garner will get even more attention.

49ers S Lance Schulters: San Francisco's pass defense has been abysmal, but Schulters shares the NFL lead with six picks this season.

2. Be patient, Brett: If Antonio Freeman (concussion) can't play, that will hurt the Packers offense because he is the only player in whom Favre really has confidence. Favre needs to be patient. The 49ers secondary is one of the NFL's worst against the pass, causing people to believe opponents need to come out and throw down the field. But although Favre played well last game, I still don't think he is in total command of the offense. He must hit the high-percentage passes before attacking down the field when the linebackers and safeties cheat toward the line of scrimmage.

3. Davis must deliver: In the West Coast offense, the Packers have to get the ball to the tight end. I think Favre has lost a little confidence in Tyrone Davis, who has dropped a number of passes. Davis will need to pick his game up Monday because he should be matched against McDonald, only an adequate cover guy. A matchup between Davis and McDonald clearly favors the Packers.

San Francisco 49ers
1. Corners need to be cornerstones: Montgomery and McDonald need to step up. I was pleasantly surprised with their performance against the Rams' outstanding receiving corps. The fact that the 49ers have made changes and put a few new players in the lineup shows how disappointed they were with the way their secondary was playing. When you play new personnel, though, it's hard to use a lot of different coverage packages. The 49ers should be somewhat basic in what they do, which will create problems because they will be unable to confuse Favre.

2. Gold rush: If the 49ers have a strength, it's Garner. I don't think the offensive line should be put in a position where it is one-dimensional, merely playing pass protection. The Packers will tee off on Stenstrom if they know the 49ers need to pass all the time. The 49ers should stress the running game because the Packers have played poorly against the run, giving up 128.3 yards per game. Through 10 weeks, teams have been able to sustain their offense against the Packers by running the football. So I think the 49ers will play smash-mouth football and try to win the game in the trenches.

3. Involve Owens: Terrell Owens is the 49ers' big-play receiver. He needs to get the ball early in the game. It may deviate from what I said about running the football, but Owens is the player who will score touchdowns for the 49ers. It's great to rush for 150 yards, sustain offense, control the clock and keep the Packers offense on the sidelines. The problem is, you don't score points that way. The 49ers will score if they get the ball to Owens because he can give them the big play. Ultimately, the points come out of the passing game.

Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski appears each week on ESPN's Monday Night Countdown and Edge NFL Matchup. He breaks down the Monday Night Football matchup each week on ESPN.com.

 


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AUDIO/VIDEO
video
 Jerry Rice discusses his storied career during the Sunday conversation with ESPN's Andrea Kremer.
RealVideo:  | 28.8