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Thursday, November 7
Updated: November 8, 11:44 AM ET
 
'Canes, Buckeyes looking to avoid upsets

By Kirk Herbstreit
Special to ESPN.com

Two of the top three teams in the rankings hope to avoid upsets on the road this weekend, other big names defend their home turf and a couple of teams look to stay alive in the Big 12 North. All that should make for an exciting weekend of college football.

No. 1 Miami vs. Tennessee
As much talk as we have heard in the last two weeks about Miami being disappointing and not living up to its billing, let's not forget that this team is undefeated and still has a good chance of getting to the Fiesta Bowl

If there is a team that has been disappointing this season it is the one the Hurricanes face this weekend. This year's Tennessee team has had to deal with more injuries in one year than any team I can remember, and they have affected not only production but also team chemistry.

The people in Knoxville feel there would be no better way to forget some of the shortcomings this year than to upset the No.1-ranked team in the country. The Vols are healthier at key positions right now than they have been in recent weeks. Casey Clausen returned from a collarbone injury and showed his toughness by diving into the end zone for a touchdown against South Carolina last week, and Cedric Houston is now fully healthy after a thumb injury and carried the ball 30 times against the Gamecocks and is a big key to the UT offense.

That bodes well for Tennessee because teams that play well against Miami do two things: match up physically in the trenches and throw the ball underneath against the linebackers in space, rather than take long shots down the field.

Those are just the things the Vols will try to do in this game. Houston will run the ball, and keep an eye on tight end Jason Witten because he has chance to be a big part of the Volunteers' game plan.

As far as Miami goes, you have to believe that after all the negative publicity the 'Canes have received over the last few weeks they will show up angry and in a nasty mood this weekend. The players are upset about a lot of things -- they don't losing a spot in the AP poll to Oklahoma, dropping behind Ohio State in the BCS standings or the lack of respect they are getting in recent weeks.

Miami players also feel they are judged by a different standard than other teams, and all those factors should motivate them on Saturday. When the Hurricanes are motivated they are the best team in the country, it's just a matter of playing with the reckless abandon they did a year ago.

The Tennessee defense has got to take advantage of the fact that it is playing at home in front of an emotional crowd, and the Vols have to stay in the game early to convince themselves and the fans they can beat Miami. If UM comes out with Ken Dorsey throwing the ball all over the field and Willis McGahee running for big yards early it will deflate the stadium and take away one of the Vols' few advantages in this game.

Tennessee has to start off well to have chance and the same is true for Miami. They have to come out of the gate and take the crowd out of it early.

Something to watch is how Miami handles its run and pass defense. The Hurricanes have so much confidence in their front seven that they have been hurt in the last three weeks -- in which they have given up 742 combined rushing yards to Florida State, West Virginia and Rutgers -- by their refusal to put eight or nine men on the line of scrimmage.

They continue to try and defend the run with just seven players, and teams are recognizing that the way to attack Miami is to run the ball as long as it keeps the safeties out of the box. Opponents are coming up with schemes that allow them to block the front seven, and if the safeties do end up coming down on the run they will to the man routes against one-on-one coverage that have also been effective.

So in addition to not playing with emotion, the 'Canes are playing a fairly simple defensive system and offensive coordinators are figuring it out.

No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
I'll never forget going down to Kyle Field two years ago and seeing the Aggies nearly pull off an upset against No. 1 Oklahoma. The Aggies had the game in hand until OU's Torrance Marshall returned an interception for a touchdown.

I would normally say this year's game has the same feel, but A&M has already lost three games in College Station this season. That is unheard of.

Texas A&M came into the season 71-11-1 at home under R.C. Slocum and only the best teams used to get out of Kyle Field alive, but already this year Virginia Tech, Nebraska and Texas Tech have been victorious and you can be sure the Sooners are aware of that.

The big key for Oklahoma is to avoid the feeling that has haunted them late in the season the last two years. The Sooners have gotten into trouble and barely held off teams like A&M, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and they just need to go out, continue to play their game and not worry about what is at stake.

In this game the OU defense matches up well with A&M. The Aggies offense, with Dustin Long now in at quarterback, seems to be able to get the ball down the field more. The Aggies' wideouts will test the Sooners defense deep more than anyone so far this year. The matchup to watch is receivers Jamaar Taylor and Bethel Johnson downfield against Sooner defensive backs Derrick Strait and Andre Woolfolk.

Those guys are the strength of the OU defense and they will be tested, but if they can come up with interceptions and good coverage Oklahoma should be in good shape. The Sooners will also try to get a lot of pressure on Long with blitzes and different looks to confuse him and the offensive line.

On the other side you have to wonder if Quentin Griffin, Kejuan Jones and the running game are going to be enough to get it done against A&M's Wrecking Crew defense. OU has done a good job running the ball but Nate Hybl has to become more consistent with his accuracy and decision-making.

The last thing the Sooners want is to get into a game in which they are relying on the passing game to make plays and win the game, because as of now they have not shown the ability to do that without making mistakes.

The onus is on the OU running game and the Sooners also need Hybl to be better, but I expect them to be good enough and I like Oklahoma in this game.

No. 3 Ohio State vs. Purdue.
As I said earlier in the week, if Ohio State is going to lose one of its three remaining games it will happen this week in West Lafayette. Purdue is much better than its 4-5 record indicates -- the five losses have come by 22 combined points -- and the Boilermakers are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the stingy Buckeyes defense.

That defense has improved dramatically since the insertion of wide receiver Chris Gamble as a starter at cornerback, not just because of his athletic ability but the attitude he brings. The Buckeyes are playing with a lot of passion and flying to the ball, and I'm sure Joe Tiller will try to find a way to derail that enthusiasm by coming up with schemes that will slow down that aggression.

Ohio State has been taking away opponents ability to run the ball -- giving up just 53 yards last week against Minnesota's Big Ten-leading running game -- and have gotten teams into a lot of second-and-long and third-and-long situations. The Buckeyes have also done a good job of getting pressure on the QB with just the front four, allowing them to drop seven men into coverage and make it tough to find open receivers.

For Purdue, it's a matter of who plays quarterback. Brandon Kirsch is the more athletic of the two candidates and can scramble for yards, but he broke his hand in a fraternity fight and just got the cast off. If he can't go Kyle Orton, who is more of a classic drop-back passer, will be in there. Kirsch gives the Boilers a much better chance with his athletic ability and they could be in trouble offensively if Orton is pressed into service.

For OSU on offense, look for Maurice Clarett to get back into the running game even though Maurice Hall and Lydell Ross have done a good job over the last couple of weeks. The Buckeyes continue to improve on that side of the ball and have gotten more balance, and if they can protect Craig Krenzel from the pass rush led by Shaun Phillips they have a shot to make some big plays through the air to Michael Jenkins and Chris Gamble. That would take a lot of pressure off the offensive line in the running game.

But the Buckeyes need to be on upset alert because they have not played well on the road this year. Their three closest games -- wins over Cincinnati, Northwestern and Wisconsin -- have all come away from Ohio Stadium and the question has been whether or not they can win convincingly on the road.

Expect a close game in the first half, but the Buckeyes defensive speed, special teams and physical nature on offense will wear Purdue down and Ohio State will pull away for the victory.

No. 15 Oregon vs. No. 5 Washington St.
Washington State is playing good football right now and has been able to take advantage of having big games at home this year, already beating USC and Arizona State in Pullman. Now Oregon comes calling.

Wazzu's Jason Gesser and Florida's Rex Grossman are two of the grittiest, gutsiest quarterbacks in the country and Gesser has been playing trough injuries and pain for the Cougars. Some of that is because he has been able to rely in a talented receiving corps that includes Jerome Riley, Devard Darling and Mike Bush.

The matchup of that group against Oregon's horrendous pass defense is something to keep an eye on. The Ducks have allowed at least 300 yards through the air in four of the last five games and you have to wonder if they will have the audacity to continue playing man coverage against Gesser and his teammates.

If they do, the Cougars will score at least 40 points. But if Oregon sits back in zone coverage and keep plays in front of the secondary it at least has a chance.

Oregon's only chance to win is to outscore WSU, which means Ducks quarterback Jason Fife is going to have to continue to play well as he faces his first real test in adverse conditions on the road at Martin Stadium. Pullman has turned into a tough place for opponents to play and communicate and how Fife handles that will be a big key in this game.

Fife could be helped by the return of running back Onterrio Smith, though, as he is about 85 percent recovered from a left knee injury. I'd be shocked to see him sit this one out

But the combination of Jason Gesser and his receivers against that porous Oregon defense and a raucous crowd will be difficult for a quarterback who hasn't seen that kind of atmosphere and will be too much for Oregon to overcome.

The Cougs' offense will not be stopped all game, so look for Washington State to put up a lot of points and win a high-scoring game.

No. 22 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Kansas State
The key to shutting down Iowa State will be Kansas State's ability to contain Cyclone quarterback Seneca Wallace. It sounds like a simple formula but may not be as simple to execute.

Wallace, who is coming off a career day against Missouri, has been the difference-maker in the Cyclones seven victories. But we also saw him struggle in two conference losses to Oklahoma (4-of-22 for 43 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs) and Texas (18-of-39 for 226 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INTs).

Now he'll have to perform against a gritty, athletic Wildcats' defense that will pride itself on its ability to contain him. Defensive ends Andrew Shull and Melvin Williams must be able to keep Wallace in the pocket. They can't let him get outside where he can improvise and make big throws down field.

Offensively, Darren Sproles and Ell Roberson give the Wildcats a legitimate threat of speed when they run the ball. And Taco Wallace and Jason Terry give them just enough of weapons on the perimeter to make them a tough defense to prepare for. Because this game is in Manhattan, it's tough to pick against Kansas State.

No. 13 NC State vs. No. 25 Maryland
Last season, in his first year as head coach, Ralph Friedgen received a lot of recognition for leading Maryland from nowhere to a conference championship. But he has done an even better coaching job this year -- overcoming some key losses and boosting his team to the high level of play we're seeing now.

I had an opportunity to watch the Terps against Georgia Tech, and I was impressed but just how good they are right now. Quarterback Scott O'Brien has a better feel for Friedgen's offense and is throwing with more authority, and Chris Downs has delivered while replacing the injured Chris Perry as the go-to running back. McBrien's possession passing game and Downs' running should be able to keep NC State off balance.

Defensively, the Terps' E.J. Henderson is healthy and playing well while leading the front seven and Madieu Williams has proved to be one of the best safeties in college football.

Remember, Maryland's 23-19 win over the Wolfpack last season was the game of the year in the ACC matchup last year. And now that the Terps have been playing well and have a ton of confidence, they've been anticipating this game for a few weeks.

NC State looked unstoppable until last week, but now the Wolfpack is trying to pick up the pieces after a tough loss to Georgia Tech. The Pack's defense just couldn't come up with the big stops to win that game.

Coach Chuck Amato has done a great job putting together a team that's fast on defense and plays with the Florida State mentality that he saw as an assistant at FSU for 18 years. His team will have its hands full containing Maryland's offense, though, because the Terrapins can hurt you both running and throwing.

NC State QB Philip Rivers and running back T.A. McLendon should have some success, but in the end, at home, Maryland's defense will make a play to turn the outcome of the game in its favor. .

Kirk Herbstreit is an analyst on ESPN College GameDay.







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