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| Friday, October 25 Irish very good, but FSU might be a little better By Jim Donnan Special to ESPN.com |
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Here's an interesting fact for all you BCS followers: of the coaches whose teams are among the top six in the first standings, only Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer has been at his school for more than four seasons. Bob Stoops is in his fourth year at Oklahoma, Larry Coker at Miami, Mark Richt at Georgia and Jim Tressel at Ohio State are all in their second seasons and Notre Dame's Tyrone Willingham is in his rookie year with Notre Dame. All have done great jobs, but I also give some credit to the coaches who preceded them with good recruiting. Notre Dame, for instance, comes into this weekend's game with Florida State with 15 senior starters on offense and defense. Add in the two kickers and 17 of 24 starters are seniors. This group has been in some big games during their careers, but they are facing a monumental task Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium. Only two teams have beaten the Seminoles at home in the last 11-plus years, Miami in 1991 and both the Hurricanes and N.C. State in 2001, and here's how I see the chances of the Irish this weekend.
Florida State offense vs. Notre Dame defense
Chris Rix will need to make some plays for the Seminoles, but he needs to be patient because wide receiver Anquan Boldin will be matched up against the outstanding corner duo of Vontez Duff and Shane Walton. Look for FSU to take some shots down the field and get some big plays on crossing routes. The key is for Florida State to play smart on offense, because I don't think the Irish will be able to move the ball on the defense. It's also time for ol' Bobby Bowden to hit a trick play, so watch for something funky early. And look for the 'Noles to utilize some two-tight end formations to balance out ND's defense. Notre Dame will have to spin its safeties down to help on the run and will be overmatched by an FSU line that wore out Miami's awesome front four earlier this year. The Irish have been incredible at creating turnovers and field position this year and that must continue for them to have any chance at victory.
Notre Dame offense vs. Florida State defense
Mobile quarterbacks like Carlyle Holiday have had some success against the 'Noles, and he could hurt them this week on scrambles, quarterback draws and option keepers. Notre Dame's best chance in the passing game is to max-protect and throw quick routes to Arnaz Battle. FSU has had a week of to tweak its scheme, though, and will double him and will use more pressure defense than it has shown so far. Notre Dame relied on defense and special teams until last week's win at Air Force, in which its offense controlled the clock and the defense smothered Air Force. But I don't think that will happen here because Florida State's quickness will be too much for the Irish offense.
Special teams Coach Willingham and his staff should be credited with an outstanding job this year and their players have shown remarkable resolve throughout the year. A victory in this game could propel them to an undefeated season, but I predict the Irish will suffer the same fate Iowa State did against Oklahoma. The score here may not be as lopsided as the 49-3 final in that game, but the Seminoles have too much speed, power and home-field advantage. I'm going against the Irish for the first time in five weeks and picking FSU to knock the Irish out of the ranks of the unbeaten. ESPN.com college football analyst Jim Donnan takes part in chats and makes observations on Saturdays as part of College GameDay Online. |
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