Chris Fowler
 
Thursday, September 7
Makin' tracks for Madison




What can happen this week to top last Saturday's shockers, stunners, and thrillers?

New Mexico State
Arizona State found out that New Mexico State wasn't to be taken lightly.

Well, there are "tossup" games all over the map, especially out west. Some true tests for the Cinderella unbeatens like Illinois and Iowa State. And plenty of national title contenders that had better be on "upset alert." I'll run them down below. First, some perspective on how historically wacky last weekend was, and some reasons why.

Shakeup Saturday
Get this: Three of the 11 biggest upsets IN THIS DECADE happened last Saturday. North Texas' ambushing of Texas Tech ranks behind only Temple's win at Virginia Tech last October. This is the same North Texas bunch clubbed 52-0 by an LSU team that lost by 34 at home to an Auburn team that had to rally to beat 1-AA Appalachian State. OK, enough comparative scores.

New Mexico State's "Woodshed" road pounding of Arizona State made the list as well. Cincinnati's win over self-destructive Wisconsin (a week removed from the Bearcats' loss to 1-AA Troy State) is the '90s 11th biggest upset in Vegas terms. Think about it -- a decade of football and these three monumental surprises happen on one day, far removed from the spotlight focused on the Florida showdowns and a classic in the Carrier Dome.

But wait, there's more!
Besides the wins by those four-TD-plus underdogs, there were four other upsets Saturday as big or bigger than anything that had happened the first three weeks.

Vandy blows a lead (no surprise), then rallies on the road (big surprise) and wins ... in overtime (real big surprise). Louisiana Tech marches the field on 'Bama behind Tim Rattay (no shock), then wins on a fourth-and-26 TD pass by backup Brian Stallworth, after Rattay is KO'd (you gotta be kidding). Stanford hangs 50 on Arizona, in Tuscon? Illinois gets a big road win?

Plus, USC had to hang on against San Diego State, Ohio State was tied at half with Ohio University, and Texas had survive against a Rice team that had been outscored 65-3 its last two games.

What's up?
You want explanations, some sound logic to make sense of this chaos. But mostly you want to know where lightning will strike next, right?

In response to the latter, I'll include a new feature here every week, highlighting a few teams that should NOT mail it in just because they are big favorites. My example on last Saturday's Gameday was Nebraska. I said there was no way they would blow out Southern Miss. Tony Barnhart chimed in that Louisiana Tech had a good chance to make it two straight over the Tide.

As for the rash of upsets, it's tempting to just shrug and say "that's college football for you." You could email Beano Cook, and he'd tell you... (wait.. Beano is coming through... I'm channeling the esteemed guru ... he is saying.. "there have always been upsets... I remember Red Blaik's 1947 Army team was supposed to beat Harvard by three touchdowns ... the right guard jumped offsides on a third-and-1 down near the goal line... and it killed them.. of course as we all know, that Army team went on to..... then there was Bud Wilkinson's Oklahoma team in..." STOP!

I had to cut short this channeling session. It is very draining to channel Beano for any length of time. My brain can only process about 2K per second. You can click to Beano's chat to communicate with him directly.

Back to the issue: why so many upsets? The answer is not that the oddsmakers are clueless. They are very good. Scary good. Check the scores on last Saturday's three biggest games. Still, huge underdogs are winning more than ever. I'm not going to give you the 85-scholarship-limit-equals-more-parity speech. That stuff is tired. True in part, but tired.

I do agree that with reduced depth, fewer teams can get by with their "C" effort, and beat ANYBODY. Most coaches I talked with also agree that it's not possible to get a football team emotionally up for more than four or five games. It's human nature. That leaves about six or seven that have to be won without any emotion, and without total mental focus.

Today's players are even less likely than past generations to "take them one at a time." They are very aware of which games are on TV, watched by the scouts and the awards voters -- and which games are not. Don't tell them that Southwest Regional Polytechnic College is a good team that is capable of spoiling their season, even if they just lost 66-6 to East Jesus Bible School. Most aren't buying, even if coaches sometimes know best.

A quick aside
The Florida defense is an example of this thinking. My pal Kirk relayed a conversation he had with defensive coordinator Jon Hoke. Hoke told him that he had sought advice from ex-Gator defensive guru Bob Stoops prior to the Tennessee game. Hoke told Stoops he was concerned. Despite efforts to motivate, his Florida defense had played with no fire or intensity its first two games and looked awful against Western Michigan and Central Florida.

Hoke told Stoops he couldn't figure out the Gators' mentality. Stoops told him he had nothing to worry about. That's just the way the players there were. When they took the field against the Vols, they would be ready. Were they ready! It was a completely different defense. The Gators knew it was time to turn it on. They had easily survived the two upset bids thanks to a great offense and The Swamp, but not many teams have such a big margin for error when they try to just coast through a Saturday night.

Anatomy of an upset
First, the old-as-dirt syndrome of the "look-ahead" game. Wisconsin players claim they were focusing only Cincy, not on the visit from Michigan. Right.

Just like when they suffered upset losses in 1993 and 1994 the week before the Wolverines' battle. By the way, both years they rebounded to beat UM.

The Badgers committed more penalties than they had in any of the last 20 games. They are claiming several were "mystery flags" thrown by Conference USA zebras. Fair point, if you watched the game. But what about the uncharacteristic three killing turnovers?

They were not mentally into it and had not prepared all week for a 60-minute war. Anybody who's played college football will tell you that you can't suddenly "turn it on" in the fourth quarter when you haven't prepared well all week.

Often very few plays make the difference between a routine win and a huge upset loss. Wisconsin did not make those plays.

The No. 2 reason for upsets: underdogs with unusual, hard-to-defend styles. New Mexico State is just the latest option team to pull a surprise. The Aggies win was no fluke -- they rolled up more 550 yards against ASU and stuffed JR Redmond -- but it can be traced to their option execution.

Cincinnati has a different style. It spread the Badger defense with four WRs from the shotgun and found just enough soft spots to keep the chains moving. Louisiana Tech is dangerous because its pass-happy scheme is guided by a future pro QB in Rattay.

reat So, beware of the 'dog with the unconventional attack.

Camp Randall rebound?
We're off to Madison for Gameday and couldn't be more pumped about the show's first visit there!

Neither Michigan nor Wisconsin's offense looks like it will have its way. The Wolverine defense has been strong, holding Notre Dame and Syracuse -- two excellent running teams -- under 100 rushing yards. Big-hitting safeties built for run support will be more capable of tackling Ron Dayne than typical DBs, and the front seven is capable of preventing romps into the secondary anyway.

Dayne maintains his tender left ankle will be fine Saturday (he carried 31 times despite a lot of pain last week), but I'm not so sure. If he is not absolutely 100 percent, he won't do much against the Wolverines, who held him under 60 yards the only time he faced them.

True, this game is huge for Dayne. It's a fact: He hasn't really run well against the better defenses. To capture the nation's attention, he has to have a game like Ricky Williams did against Nebraska. That was the day my guy Corso predicted the "Blackshirts" would send Ricky to the sidelines. He arrived at Memorial Stadium with steam coming out his ears and ran over the Huskers and Texas snapped Nebraska's home win streak.

Dayne needs this kind of effort Saturday. If he gets 100 yards, has a couple of bowl-over-the-linebacker highlight runs, and Wisconsin wins -- it's all downhill to Ricky's record and the Heisman. If he gains 55 yards and the Badgers lose (and if he's held to 55, they probably will), then the label still sticks.

Look, Dayne has had a great career. He may go on to become the all-time 1-A rusher. If he has a bad game Saturday, it does not mean he's a stiff. It does not mean all his yards were "soft."

It's just that Dayne has never been glamorous. He's not a showman. Most of his runs are not of the Sportscenter variety. And even when he runs wild on the biggest stage in college football -- the Rose Bowl -- he doesn't get much credit. The story in Pasadena was UCLA's bad defense, not Dayne's great running.

That's unfair.

Dayne doesn't do the scheduling for Wisconsin. It's not his fault the program chose to line up September cupcakes. He has not been kept on the field late in these games to pile up meaningless yards.

Yeah, he's been a little injury-prone. But he played through pain Saturday because his team needed him and when his Big 10 record-breaking day ended in a loss, he was appropriately bummed.

Dayne is a decent guy. I hope he gets his due. But he's operating in a rarified circle now. He'll simply have to pile up yards the next two weeks or he'll never be considered one of the greats, record or not.

Bad Blood bowls
Many of you know that I went to Colorado and probably expect me to weigh in on the hyped reunion of the Buffs and Rick Neuheisel in Seattle. Sorry, but I've already had much too much of the overblown "Bad Blood" theme.

Gary Barnett and Neuheisel are not and never will be close. The two staffs will coach their pants off (round the clock probably) to win this game. It means a whole lot to both personally. For Neuheisel to start his Husky tenure 0-3 would be deflating and embarrassing. For Barnett to lose to the guy whose philosophies he's criticized would be bitter.

But players will decide the game. Much more important to the outcome than coaches' animosity are questions like:

Can Mike Moschetti's braced knee stand up to the constant blitzes of Washington's athletic front seven? Can the Huskies win relying on a freshman starting tailback? Can their less-than-speedy receivers get open against the Buffs' excellent secondary? Will Marques Tuiasosopo again commit five turnovers? Whose special teams will break down?

You get the idea. There are a couple dozen variables in this game, the least of which involve "bad blood." Some of Colorado's players certainly do want to beat their ex-coach, to send him to 0-3. But more of them simply want to return home 3-1.

Upset alert
OK, I said I'd give you a couple teams that need to be careful Saturday. One is Miami. The 'Canes have not gotten over the heartbreaker with Penn State, by all accounts. Now they take on East Carolina, which has been holed up in a Ramada Inn in Columbia, S.C. since last week's win over the Gamecocks, thanks to the terrible flooding of Greenville.

With school out, the Pirates have been able to prepare for the 'Canes fulltime, even if their concerns are with the home folks in Greenville. How will the play? Nobody knows, but the game shifted to N.C.State's Carter-Finley Stadium is loaded with X-factors and Miami had better be careful.

A strange little voice tells me that either the Gators or 'Noles will find themselves in a fight on the road Saturday, even though they are big, big favorites. Duke is a favorite over Vanderbilt. Duke just lost at home to Northwestern. Hmmm.

That's about it. Yeah, Southern Miss is capable of beating A&M and Wyoming could upend Air Force. But those wouldn't be big shockers.

Swamped
OK, Gator fans, I was wrong. Thought the Vols could break the Florida's home win streak.

My guy Corso was right. Hey, it happens occasionally! His point: You can't merely be better than Florida to conquer them at their place. You have to be A LOT better.

Florida Field is a concrete cauldron built for noise. The fans are relentless. They refuse to let the Gators lose. Opponents cannot audible -- and have a hard time even adjusting their offensive line calls. That's what undermined Tennessee on the fateful fourth-and-3 toss sweep. By the way, a toss sweep to the wide side -- when you need 3 yards against that speedy bunch? Never had a chance.

I will never pick against Spurrier in The Swamp... I will never pick against Spurrier in The Swamp... I will never... at least not until the Seminoles come calling.

Just kidding. They way both teams played Saturday, I'd lean to Florida in what's now shaping up as an elimination game for the Sugar Bowl.

In the meantime, look for us on Gameday from Madison. And remember: in this sport, there are very few foregone conclusions.






ALSO SEE
Herbstreit's viewer's guide

Top 25 overview















ESPN.com: HELP | ADVERTISER INFO | CONTACT US | TOOLS | SITE MAP
Copyright ©1999 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy and Safety Information are applicable to this site. Click here for a list of employment opportunities at ESPN.com.