Rosters: Florida | Alabama
Statistics: Florida | Alabama
Quarterbacks
Edge: Even
Early this week, Steve Spurrier and Mike DuBose had not indicated who would start or how they would play their two quarterbacks (Note: Spurrier chose Palmer on Thursday). The last few times I have seen Doug Johnson, he doesn't look like he has the same confidence he had in the first part of the season. Alabama might bring out some of his confidence because Johnson had his best game against the Tide: 309 yards and four touchdown passes. Jesse Palmer seems more confident than Johnson, but it's clear he doesn't have as much rhythm with the wide receivers. The key for Alabama is the health of Andrew Zow. A healthy Zow creates a better matchup for Alabama than having Tyler Watts in the game. Zow allows the Tide to spread the field and create some running lanes, even for himself. Watts can't make a play when there is nothing there like Zow can. Zow must play. If we knew Zow would be healthy and starting, I would give 'Bama the edge.
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GILMORE'S GRADES
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Florida
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Alabama
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X
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QB
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X
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RB
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X
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WR/TE
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X
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OL
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X
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X
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DL
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X
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LB
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X
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X
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DB
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Special teams
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X
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X
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Coaching
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Running backs
Edge: Alabama
This category isn't even close. I'm assuming Shaun Alexander is at least as healthy as he was against Auburn. The sore ankle prevents him from cutting like he has most of the season, yet he still is good enough to be a clutch player. He is better than what Florida has with its running back-by-committee approach. Alexander is a slasher, and Florida defensive coordinator Jon Hoke told me he thinks Alexander is a lot stronger than most people think. In the first meeting, Florida did a good job of bottling up Alexander. He had 68 yards on 24 carries until late in the game when he broke off touchdown runs of 13 and 24 yards, finishing with four scores. Florida has Earnest Graham, the player I think the Gators would like in the game most of the time. At 218 pounds, he is the biggest of the backs they use. Robert Gillespie may be back, but he is only 185 pounds. Florida's running game has not been as productive, averaging about 109 yards rushing over the last three games. They will need better run production than that against 'Bama.
Receivers/Tight ends
Edge: Alabama
Freddie Milons is the key. With 64 receptions, Milons has been a clutch third-down receiver for the Tide. If Alabama is able to get into the spread offense, Milons should see a lot of single coverage. Even when the Gators play zone, he will be primarily facing a single defender. I like that matchup for Milons. If the Gators had a healthy receiving corps, they would get the edge. Consider Travis Taylor. Ever since he injured his ankle, he hasn't been the same player. He only has 16 catches and one touchdown since returning from his ankle injury. He looked decent against Florida State, but the Gators are clearly struggling offensively, with rotating quarterbacks, injuries and dropped balls.
Offensive line
Edge: Alabama
The Tide wins in a close call. All-American tackle Chris Samuels has started 41 straight games and hasn't given up a sack all season. When they last played Florida, the Tide line had its way with Alex Brown and company, holding Brown sackless. Samuels was outstanding. The Tide line has only allowed 19 sacks this season. They don't need to create huge holes for Alexander to be effective. They just need to give him creases. Florida has been inconsistent and average up front. Mike Pearson is going to be a great offensive lineman, but he is a redshirt freshman.
Defensive line
Edge: Florida
The Gators have 41 sacks and the nation's second-best rush defense at 72 yards a game. Everybody talks about Brown on the outside, but the Gators are stout inside with Gerard Warren and Buck Gurley. They should be effective. The Gators did a nice job of holding Alexander in check most of the game until a couple of big plays late in the game that catapulted him over 100 yards.
Linebackers
Edge: Even
I like freshman middle linebacker Saleem Rasheed. The Tide has a fast, solid linebacking corps. Despite giving up 39 points, I think 'Bama's linebackers played well. On the other side, Andra Davis had a huge game against 'Bama with 15 tackles, and Eugene McCaslin performed well agaisnt Florida State. I think the Florida linebackers will be more aggressive in the rematch. They played a lot of zone against 'Bama the first time and got an interception, but they will mix it up and apply more pressure. Expect McCaslin and Davis to get after the quarterback more.
Defensive backs
Edge: Florida
The two groups are generally even, but Florida makes better plays, particularly on the deep ball. Alabama has given up 19 touchdown passes, the worst total in the SEC. It's not that the Tide have poor defensive backs; they just need to knock down the ball or get the pick at the end of the play. They have talented players in the secondary, with cornerbacks Milo Lewis and Gerald Dixon and free safety Reggie Myles. They have been better since Myles moved to safety from cornerback. For Florida, cornerback Bennie Alexander tends to make big plays. Alexander had interception returns for touchdowns against Florida State and Alabama. The Gators' weakness is evident when they face the spread and have strong safety Marquand Manuel covering a receiver in space. That is an advantage for Alabama. The less three-receiver sets the Gators see, the better off they are.
Special teams
Edge: Alabama
Alabama gets the edge because of the return game and Milons, who has returned a punt for a touchdown. Plus, Florida's Darrell Jackson muffed a punt that Alabama recovered and turned into a touchdown. Florida is better in the kicking game with Jeff Chandler, one of the nation's leading kickers with 21 field goals.
Coaching
Edge: Florida
There is no better game-day offensive coach as Spurrier, who is adept at creating favorable matchups. The only question about him is how he handles his quarterbacks and their mentality. Clearly, the alternating quarterback system is not preferred, and I don't think it worked against Florida State. I like defensive coordinator Jon Hoke, who has gotten the defense to play well in big games. To his credit, he has taken the blame for them giving up 40 points to Alabama. His troops will rally around him because he stood up and took responsibility. That approach to this rematch inspires confidence in his defensive players.
Overall
Edge: Florida
I like Florida for one reason: defense. The Gators have the more dominant defense and may be able to shut down Alexander, which they almost did the first time. I don't think 'Bama will be hold Brown without a sack for the second straight time. Another factor in Florida's favor is that it is very difficult to beat the same team twice in one season.