Point guard
Derek Fisher vs. Jason Kidd
A tough spring gets even tougher for Fisher, who's had to guard Tony Parker, Mike Bibby and, now, Kidd the last three series. But Kidd is totally different from Parker and Bibby; he doesn't have to score a single point to dominate a game. Fisher won't have to fight through nearly as many screens and pick and roll sets against Kidd, but there is no one better in basketball today than Kidd at initiating the break and getting to top speed; he creates transition opportunities where none exist and has passing lanes that others can't see. And he never makes a mistake on the break. I used to be hung up on Kidd's field goal percentage (.409 in the playoffs); now it seems irrelevant. Like Allen Iverson, Kidd has the green light to shoot as often as he needs to for New Jersey to win. As long as Kidd is boarding and dishing, the Nets don't care. Any offense Fisher can provide will be gravy for L.A.; there's no reason for Kidd to play Fisher honest after his horrible (so far) postseason. But Fish saved his best for last, scoring nine points in the second half and overtime of Game 7 against Sacramento.
Edge: Nets.
Shooting guard
Kobe Bryant vs. Kerry Kittles
A year ago, Kittles was just hoping he'd be able to play again after four knee surgeries. His recovery has been inspiring, and he hit his stride against Boston in the Eastern finals. Bryant will have to play him honest; Kittles is deceptively quick and can elevate when the mood strikes him. He'll be much more of a scoring threat than Doug Christie, and if Bryant doesn't get back on D after shooting, Kittles will take off and he can finish. It won't surprise me, though, to see the Lakers move Bryant onto Kidd for defensive stretches. Kobe seemed to overcome his cheeseburger poisoning late in the Sacramento series and should have his way with Kittles at the other end, which is why it won't surprise to see the Nets move Kidd onto Bryant for defensive stretches. The key with guarding Kobe isn't keeping him from shooting; it's keeping him off the foul line. That's when he has his biggest scoring nights. In the last three games against the Kings, he shot 11, 11 and 10 free throws.
Edge: Lakers.
Small forward
Rick Fox vs. Keith Van Horn
Fox had trouble guarding Hedo Turkoglu; Van Horn won't be as physical. But Van Horn's a much deeper shooter and with his height, he can shoot over just about all threes. He's extremely streaky, but he hit the biggest shots against Boston when the Nets had to have them, and when he played well, the Nets won. Fox is excellent at denying the ball but that's part of the New Jersey trap; those who overplay get backcut to death. The Lakers won't make a point of running specific plays to exploit Van Horn's, ah, inconsistent defense. But they figure as long as they run the triangle, weak links in the opposition's defense will ultimately be exposed. Whoever wins this matchup could swing the series his team's way.
Edge: Even.
Power forward
Robert Horry vs. Kenyon Martin
I told all of you over and over at the start of the season that Horry would be starting when the playoffs got serious. And here he is. You know the drill: he plays excellent team defense, sometimes to a fault; Chris Webber got all kinds of open looks from the foul line because Horry insisted on helping Fisher and Lindsey Hunter when they got beat by Bibby. Offensively, Horry waits, and waits, and waits, and then drops the killer three. Martin has had a solid playoffs (15.5 points 5.6 rebounds) and is New Jersey's best chance at inside production. Horry is a master as drawing offensive fouls, though; Martin has to be careful not to go too quickly on his postups. The Lakers will also probably make Martin prove he can consistently hit jumpers. On defense, Martin will likely be the primary help guy on O'Neal and he will have to help Kidd on the glass against L.A.'s opportunistic offensive rebounders. If K Mart can dominate this matchup, the Nets may have a real chance in this series. But everyone thinks that going in, and then Horry makes the biggest plays.
Edge: Nets.
Center
Shaquille O'Neal vs. Todd MacCulloch
Um, help. Somebody come help poor Todd. Even at 70 percent, the Diesel is a prohibitive favorite to go for 30 or more every game. MacCullough is willing to throw his body around, but he doesn't have the quickness to beat O'Neal to spots, and even if he did, nobody has the strength to keep O'Neal from the basket. And if he's going to hit 75 percent from the line, as he did in games six and seven combined against Sacramento (24 of 32), we might as well all go home now. If Shaq makes quick work of MacCullough, the Nets have precious little in reserve, and New Jersey can't run the risk of putting Martin on Shaq and getting him in foul trouble, too. MacCullough and the Nets' other bigs can get some points by running the floor, Shaq's biggest liability at the moment. And T Mac does have outstanding hands; if the Nets can move Shaq around a little, MacCullough will be in great position for putbacks and backcuts. The Nets' goal should be to lose the center position by "only" 20 points every game. Problem is, the Daddy could drop a 45-5 on them.
Edge: Lakers.
Coach
Phil Jackson vs. Byron Scott
Someone actually wrote before Game 6 of the Kings' series that if the Lakers lost, it would be Jackson's fault. What is in the water out in L.A.? How could anyone assign blame to the guy that's won 22 (now 23) straight playoff series? You want to know who's had a bad coaching year? George Karl's had a bad coaching year. Not Jackson. There's no doubt that it was harder for him to motivate and challenge his team this season than it's ever been, but that's what happens after you win a couple of championships in a row. People get complacent. The bottom line is that he's coaching in June, again, and his team played its best when it mattered most, again. Scott is new to this but he shows some of the old-school cantankerousness, whether it's sticking up for his players or belittling the talents of the opposition. We like that-when you're winning. The Nets certainly seem well-prepared and it takes a coach that's secure to accept an offensive system from an assistant. But Scott did, taking Eddie Jordan's suggestion that the Nets use the Princeton offense. It seems to have worked. And Scott won't let Jax have run in the rhetoric department, whether it's about the officiating or anything else, without firing back.
Edge: Lakers.
Bench
Samaki Walker, Devean George, Lindsey Hunter, Brian Shaw, Stanislav Medvedenko vs. Aaron Williams, Richard Jefferson, Lucious Harris, Anthony Johnson and Jason Collins.
The Lakers don't ask for or expect much out of their reserves, though Walker had some key moments against San Antonio and Sacramento. George didn't do much scoring against the Kings but he did get busy on the glass, something he'll have to continue doing against the Nets' bench. New Jersey is getting 25 points and 10 boards during the playoffs from its reserves, on whom it counts to continue the energy that Kidd brings to the party. Jefferson is growing by leaps and bounds and he's utterly fearless. Harris has continued the play that made him a strong Sixth Man candidate during the regular season, and it wouldn't be a shock if the Nets use him in certain situations against Bryant. Williams scores on hustle points and running the floor, but if he has to play extended minutes against O'Neal, those numbers will drop significantly. The Nets have to win the production matchup here against their L.A. counterparts if they're going to have any chance.
Edge: Nets.
Intangibles
I am going to say this as clearly as I can: This series is going to be a lot tougher than most people seem to think. The Lakers do not intimidate as they did last season. The Kings weren't afraid of them, and neither are the Nets, who are nobody's pushover. New Jersey is a solid, solid team with a superstar player running the show. No one gives the Nets props for their D, but opponents are shooting just .419 against them in the playoffs and only scoring 92.8 per game. They stymied the Celtics with a matchup zone and you should expect to see it again against L.A. Even though Bryant hit two big threes in Game 7, he had only made 14 of 44 postseason threes before then. The Nets would be crazy if they singled up MacCulloch, Collins or Williams against O'Neal, and they're not crazy. They'll drop two and three defenders in Shaq's lap and make the other four Lakers beat them from the perimeter. This series will come down to two things: rebounding and running. If the Lakers dominate the glass, the series will be a halfcourt affair, and they can probably muster up enough defense to keep the Nets at bay. If New Jersey wins the battle on the boards, the Nets can get out and run. They have to make this a track meet. They're the best in the league at pushing the ball and the Lakers have never been more vulnerable at getting back. But it says here that Los Angeles will do enough on the glass, shake off an almost certain letdown at the start of the series and ultimately grind the Nets down. For one reason. They have the Daddy, and nobody else does. Threepeat.
THE PICK: Lakers in six.
David Aldridge is an NBA reporter for ESPN.
