LOS ANGELES -- I think the New Jersey Nets have a great chance to grab a win. The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a very emotionally and physically exhausting series in the Western Conference finals. They have not had time to focus on New Jersey's game. The Nets are fresh and rested, and they come in such an overwhelming underdog that they feel good psychologically about themselves.

To take advantage of the fatigued Lakers, the Nets need to really up-tempo the game. That means playing good defense, rebounding, forcing turnovers and pushing the ball at every opportunity to get the ball in Jason Kidd's hands and getting out into the running lanes.

The Nets need to beat the Lakers down the floor, especially Shaquille O'Neal. He's really the only basket defender the Lakers have. There will be a lot of halfcourt possessions, however. Even when you want to run and have success with it, you may only have one-third of your possessions in transition. So you have to the halfcourt game, too, and I think the Nets do. Their passing, screening and cutting game will make the Lakers work.

	Getting Here
	The Lakers and Nets have very similar numbers this postseason, but Los Angeles has taken a much tougher road. The teams are separated by less than a point in scoring, both are winning by about two points per game and both are playing great defense, but the Lakers have played better teams along the way. The Nets' playoff opponents thus far (Paces, Hornets, Celtics) have had a combined regular-season winning percentage of .549 compared to over .680 for the Lakers three opponents (Blazers, Spurs, Kings).
		Nets	Lakers
	W-L	11-5	11-4
	PPG	95.0	95.7
	Pt. diff.	+2.2	+2.4
	Opp FG pct.	41.9	42.3
	Opp. win pct.*	.549	.683
	*Combined regular season

The Nets don't want Shaq and Kobe Bryant to go wild, but they know they're not going to stop either player. Byron Scott told me he doesn't envision the Nets really limiting the production of the Lakers' superstars. But what Scott would like to do is let Shaq and Kobe get 50 points, or even 60, but contain the other guys and keep them under 30. If you do that, you have a great chance at beating the Lakers.

You'll see some zone defense by the Nets for which the Lakers seem to have no fear. Phil Jackson says teams have had a very difficult time trying to zone them this year. The Lakers have been able to handle zone defenses out of their regular offense because they have such good movement to attack a zone. If the Nets' zone D is to focus heavily on Shaq, which I imagine it will, it leaves a number of good opportunities for other players on the perimeter. Shaq, despite the Nets' efforts, will find the open guys -- he's a very good passer. But the Nets had great success with the zone against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. They certainly are going to attempt to use it.

Another thing to watch in Game 1: the great individual matchups.

Kerry Kittles, Lucious Harris and Richard Jefferson will all work to keep Kobe from having a huge game, and they're all pretty good defenders. Then you have Rick Fox against Keith Van Horn. While Van Horn has a size advantage, he's not a post-up player. And Fox is underappreciated as a defender. Then you have the matchup of Robert Horry and Kenyon Martin. Kenyon is very strong. He's stronger than Robert. But he doesn't have Robert's skill from shooting at the edges.

Of course, what do the Lakers do about Kidd? I think mostly they will try to keep him from getting his teammates involved on offense, something he's very good at. The more the Lakers can limit his passing opportunities, the better the chances are for the Lakers.

Another factor: Todd MacCulloch. He is not going to stop Shaq, who is stronger and more skilled. But MacCulloch is a fundamentally sound player with great hands for catching and finishing in the basket area. If the Lakers forget about him, he's going to score and hurt them. In Game 2 of last year's Finals between the Lakers and Sixers, MacCulloch had 13 points in 16 minutes. Aaron Williams is another guy the Lakers need to worry about. He and Kidd will run screen-and-rolls to take Shaq away from the basket.

So there are a lot of things to watch Wednesday night. I don't envision the Nets winning the series, but I think you might see them pulling out a victory in Game 1. They have a great chance.

Dr. Jack Ramsay, a Hall of Fame coach who won an NBA title with Portland in 1977, is an NBA analyst for ESPN.