Eight teams, two pennants and 13 things to watch during the postseason:
1. The commercials
Yes, you heard me right: the commercials. You should
do this for two reasons:
1) You need to keep the networks interested in
sponsoring these games. Otherwise, they'll be even
harder to find next year.
2) As a consumer, how else will you know what to
purchase?
2. The lower-seeded teams
"Seeded" is really the wrong word in baseball since
the team with the best record does not necessarily
play the team with the fourth-best record, owing to
there being a standing rule against having the
wild-card team play its division winner in the first
round. So, for the purposes of this, "seeded" will
indicate order of record in terms of wins and losses.
Since the advent of three-division, wild-card baseball
in 1995, here are the postseason records of teams with
the first-, second-, third- and fourth-best records in
the regular season:
First: 79-57 .581
Second: 42-46 .477
Fourth: 58-64 .475
Third: 43-55 .439
First-round exits:
Third: 9
Second: 9
Fourth: 5
First: 4
The worst showing in this time period by a best-record
team was last year's Astros, who swooned out of the
playoffs to the Braves in three games, being outscored
14-6. The year before, the White Sox were swept by the
Mariners by a similar 14-7 count, but had held a lead in each of the three games. Houston only
had one lead in its series.
Championships:
First: 3
Second: 2
Third: 1
Fourth: 1
Prior to 2000, the championships had been flagged by
first- or second-ranked teams. The 2001 Diamondbacks
came in third in the league and the 2000 Yankees were
fifth, but count as the fourth team for purposes of
this study.
3. Your absence time from work
Unless you are unemployed, a student with an
undernourished schedule or someone who works a night shift, you are
simply not going to see much of these playoffs unless
you call in sick to work. Five of the first 10 games
have starting times right in the middle of the work
day, plus you'll have to search around for the ABC Family Channel to find some of them. This is
ruinous for fans of shows like 38th-generation reruns
of "Seventh Heaven" but a real boon for those of us who
follow the national game.
Here it is in a nutshell: If the only place MLB can
find to show the first round of the playoffs is a
cable channel that is an adjunct to a real network
then it is pretty obvious that the first round is
totally superfluous! We have sacrificed so much to
have wild cards and interleague play (like real pennant
races and the competitive integrity of symmetrical
scheduling) and what is it we have to show for it? A
lot of games that most of us will never see.
4. Reggie Sanders
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Bonds vs. Sanders
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When it comes to having something to prove in the postseason, allow us to let up on Barry Bonds for a moment
and focus instead on Reggie Sanders, who has whiffed a remarkable 39 times in his 92 postseason
at-bats. Like Barry, Sanders has something to prove –- although, unlike Barry, he has
had good individual series and played for some winning teams. The totals make for some very similar postseason stats:
|
|
|
Sanders
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Bonds
|
|
Games
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26
|
27
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|
At-bats
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92
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97
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|
Hits
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18
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19
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|
Homers
|
2
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1
|
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Runs
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13
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12
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|
RBI
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5
|
6
|
|
Average
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.196
|
.196
|
|
OBP
|
.308
|
.316
|
|
Sl Pct.
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.293
|
.299
|
|
Walks
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15
|
17
|
With Barry Bonds getting on base at a greater rate
than anyone in the history of time dating back to the
days of the ancients, why didn't the Giants score more
runs this year? I'm going to put some of the blame on
Reggie Sanders, a man caught in a bizarre yo-yoing of
his slugging average. Had this been one of Sanders'
"up" years, the Giants would have been good for some
more runs. Alas, it was an even year, and in even
years, Sanders slugs under .500. Watch:
1994: .480
1995: .579
1996: .463
1997: .510
1998: .418
1999: .527
2000: .403
2001: .549
2002: .455
5. Mariano Rivera's shoulder
With Luis Gonzalez out, Rivera's tender
shoulder is probably the biggest question mark of the
postseason. Of course, the maddening thing for fans of
the other seven teams is that the Yankees can win
without him. They went 38-25 during his three longest
absences this year. That's a .603 winning percentage;
not as good as the .663 during the rest of the year,
but good enough to have still won the division.
6. The sea
As in offshore. Offshore gambling dens ... so exotic ... so
forbidden ...
Without too much thought, you can probably put the
teams in the exact order the gambling houses have them
from most favored to least favored. Well, you can at
least get the favorite and the biggest 'dog correct,
right? That's it: the Yankees and Twins.
Yankees: 11 to 5
A's: 7 to 2
Diamondbacks: 7 to 2
Braves: 4 to 1
Cardinals: 11 to 1
Angels: 12 to 1
Giants: 12 to 1
Twins: 18 to 1
These odds are presented for educational purposes
only. They are not to be utilized for any reason other
than probability studies undertaken in the pursuit
graduate or post-graduate degrees.
7. Barry Bonds versus Greg Maddux
| |  |
| | Bonds |
| |  |
| | Maddux |
More than 15 years ago, a rookie Cubs pitcher faced a
sophomore Pirates outfielder for the first time. Two
Hall of Fame careers later, they are destined to meet
once more, this time with considerably more on the
line in Game 2 of the NL Division Series. In the
interim, Bonds has held his own against Maddux. He has
a career .938 OPS against him and has drawn 22 walks
in the process of 138 or so plate appearances. Bonds
has been equally effective against Game 1 starter
Tom Glavine, posting a .945 OPS in about 90 plate
appearances. Of course, these OPS figures are
considerably less than what Bonds has been throwing up
on the board overall in the past few years and
considerably more than he has ever posted in a
previous postseason.
In spite of the quality of the competition, I have to
believe Bonds is going to have a much better showing
than in his previous trips to the fair. He is so much
on top of his game right now it seems inconceivable
that he could go three or four games without doing
some damage.
8. The Twins on the road
While only 4½ games separate the best home record
from the worst home record among the eight playoff
teams, the Twins are far worse than the
best on the road. In 2002, the Twins finished 40-40 on the road,
10½ games worse than the Yankees.
While it is rare for a team that plays that poorly away
from home to go all the way, it has been done. In
fact, the worst road team in history to win the
World Championship was none other than these Twins:
|
Year
|
Team
|
Road record
|
Pct.
|
|
1987
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Minnesota Twins
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29-52
|
.358
|
|
1918
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Boston Red Sox
|
26-30
|
.464
|
|
1997
|
Florida Marlins
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40-41
|
.494
|
|
1945
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Detroit Tigers
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38-39
|
.494
|
|
1974
|
Oakland Athletics
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41-40
|
.506
|
In their history, the Twins have played in seven
postseason series and only managed to win road games
in two of them. That '87 team, famous for getting
swept on the road in the Series but winning all four
at home to beat the Cardinals, actually managed to win
two out of three games in Detroit. The 1991 team repeated the or-all-nothing
trick along a home/road bias in the Series, but won
all three of their games in Toronto to close out the
ALCS. Overall, the Twins are 5-13 on the road in
postseason play.
9. The Rally Monkey
So my antics are amusing?
My hairless human cousin.
When it is you're losing
The crowd it starts a-buzzin':
"Come forth, you little simian
And do your frenzied dance
Our task is Sisyphean
But with you we have a chance!"
So leap about and scream I do
Like one of those beserkers
I rave as though I've lost a screw
Like a half-crazed postal worker
And, sure enough, your team revives
And the enemy is thwarted
My existence once more justified
My charms again so courted.
But something plagues my mind unsolved
When on my record I reflect
Since you are so much more evolved
Then explain my cause/effect.
10. Your mouth
Owing to high birth rates in the last few years, there
are probably more children around than is good for us.
This, coupled with the fact that spirits are higher
during the playoffs and folks are more susceptible to
cursing, makes for some uncomfortable situations
around the little ones. Remember, cursing someone does
not demean the cursed, it demeans the curser.
Yeah, whatever. Actually, I've been thinking of
marketing a couple of different devices especially
designed for the profane fan. The first is just an
old-fashioned leather strap –- the kind that
pre-epidural cultures used to give to birthing mothers
to bite down on while delivering. I am told they
muffle screams nicely. Another device is far more
complicated. It is called a PCU (Profanity Conversion
Unit) and is affixed over the head of the language
defiler. When he or she goes into action, spewing
invective at the opposing team, umpires,
underachieving favorite team or disagreeable
broadcasters, the energy generated by these outbursts
is absorbed by the PCU and stockpiled for use in
running small household appliances.
11. Playoff perennials: David Justice, Tino Martinez and Bernie Williams
All Yankee teammates in the 2000 and 2001 World
Series, they have now gone their separate ways but
have all managed to get back into the postseason yet
again. This marks Justice's 10th appearance in the
postseason and Martinez's eighth straight playoff
appearance. Justice has done this with four teams and
Martinez with three. Bernie Williams is also playing
in his eighth straight postseason, but all with one
team. This brings up an interesting question: What
player in baseball history has appeared in front of
the most fans in person?
Clearly, to discover this would be a remarkable
undertaking best left to someone who has lots of time
on their hands. I
would imagine that Bernie Williams has played in front
of as many people as anyone in the major leagues. The
Yankees have drawn well throughout most of his career
and they are always a big ticket item on the road.
Throw in 83 sold-out or nearly sold-out playoff games,
and he's a pretty good candidate.
12. Faces in the crowd
A few years ago, Fox was broadcasting the World Series
and had placed actors from many of their shows in
camera-accessible box seats. After the 10th cutaway
to Calista Flockhart of Ally McBeal infamy, Joe Buck
got off a great line when he said, "It's a good thing
most Fox shows are animated, otherwise, there wouldn't
be any seats left for real fans." Greatest show in the
history of television or not, by the time the World
Series is over, you are going to be dead sick of
seeing the promo for The Simpsons season premiere
featuring Elvis Costello. Doubt me now, but just wait.
If I were a person hoping to land one of the many
managerial jobs that have become available since the
season ended just two days ago, I'd make sure I was
hanging around the playoffs, getting air time, talking
on two cell phones at once –- you know, creating a
buzz. Or does that make one look desperate?
13. The Cardinals' revenge quest
Check out ESPN Insider
as Jim reports on whether the Cardinals can get even with the Diamondbacks.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.