No outcome would shock me in the National League Division Series and any team could advance to the World Series. Forced to make a pick, I'd give a slight nod to Atlanta because of its bullpen.
Before looking at five key questions on the Giants-Braves series, here's a quick scouting report on each team:
| |
|
| |
| 2002 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GM |
W-L |
IP |
H |
K |
ERA |
| 72 |
7-3 |
68.0 |
48 |
69 |
1.99 |
|
|
Atlanta
The Braves appear unbeatable if they have a lead after six innings. Chris Hammond in the seventh, Mike Remlinger in the eighth and John Smoltz to close it out seem as effective as Cincinnati's Nasty Boys in 1990 and the duo of Mariano Rivera for two innings and John Wetteland to close for the Yankees in 1996. Gary Sheffield and Chipper Jones are legitimate threats, but the Braves' ability to score runs will be likely measured by the contributions of Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones. Both can get red hot or be ice cold.
Any additional offense from Vinny Castilla, Javy Lopez, Matt Franco and Julio Franco should be looked at as a bonus -- but if they hit, Atlanta will be tough to beat. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine still have the ability to shut opponents down when they're on their game, and Kevin Millwood's comeback this year has been sensational.
San Francisco
The Giants finished on a roll and Barry Bonds is on a mission. He's never been involved in a winning postseason series. Manager Dusty Baker also wants to prove he can manage winning baseball in October. Starters Jason Schmidt, Russ Ortiz, Kirk Rueter and Livan Hernandez can all be spectacular at times, and the bullpen is peaking at the right time.
Obviously, the key is getting men on base in front of Bonds so he has to be pitched to. But the Giants' fortunes could depend on whether hitters like Benito Santiago, Reggie Sanders, J.T. Snow and David Bell can deliver after teams have pitched around Barry. Rich Aurilia and Jeff Kent will see pitches to hit.
Five key questions:
1. Can Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine spin their magic one more time?
The veteran starters have thrown hot and cold for Atlanta since mid-August. Maddux has been limited to 75-80 pitches this season, but because he throws so many strikes, he often gets into the sixth or seventh. The Braves' excellent bullpen has made this an excellent strategy.
| |
|
| |
| 2002 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GM |
W-L |
IP |
H |
K |
ERA |
| 29 |
13-8 |
185.1 |
148 |
196 |
3.45 |
|
|
2. Which Jason Schmidt will show up for the Giants?
Will it be the pitcher who can dominate and strike out 13 (as he did at Yankee Stadium and at home against the Mets)? Or the inconsistent Jason Schmidt? Schmidt has been brilliant at times and iffy at others. The issue seems to be a consistent ability to get ahead of hitters and then put them away.
3. Who can help Sheffield and Chipper offensively for the Braves?
If Rafael Furcal can get on base and create some havoc, that will definitely help. It would also help if Andruw Jones goes on a tear. He's streaky and he can be pitched to, but when he's swinging the bat well, he's tough (just ask the Phillies: Jones hit three homers against them last week).
4. Who can get on base consistently so Bonds has to be pitched to?
If Kenny Lofton, Rich Aurilia and/or Jeff Kent get on base -- creating at least a first-and-second situation -- then you have to pitch to Bonds. He's the most dangerous hitter in the game today and he's patient. When the Braves encounter a situation where they can pitch around him, you can be sure they will.
5. Can the Giants put a dent in the vaunted Atlanta bullpen and maybe steal a game?
Chris Hammond wasn't scored on in 28 of his last 29 games this season, Mike Remlinger has been the best setup man in baseball this year, and John Smoltz has been the best closer. But if, late in a close game, the Giants can manage to scratch out a run or take advantage of a mistake by an Atlanta reliever, that could be the difference in the series.
Prediction: Braves in five.
Dave Campbell, who was an infielder for eight seasons in the major leagues (1967-74), is an analyst for Baseball Tonight and ESPN Radio.