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| | Tuesday, January 11 | |||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||
| Editor's note: ESPN.com is pleased to be the exclusive online home for Peter Gammons. Look for Gammons' weekly contributions here and bi-weekly in ESPN The Magazine.
With spring training approaching, let's run down each of the divisions, beginning with the American League East.
New York Yankees 1999 record: 98-64, 1st place (+4) Attendance: 3.293 million Offseason transactions Re-signed free agents David Cone, Allen Watson and Mike Stanton. Traded RHP Dan Naulty to L.A. for 1B Nick Leach. Traded OF Chad Curtis to Texas for RHPs Sam Marsonek and Brandon Knight. Traded RHP Hideki Irabu to Montreal for RHP Jake Westbrook and two players to be named later. Lost free agent C Joe Girardi and IF Luis Sojo. DH Chili Davis retired. Signed C Tom Pagnozzi and minor league FA C Tom Wilson. Obtained OF Terry Jones from Colorado. Rookies and other strangers IF D'Angelo Jimenez (.327, 17 HR, 32 SB at AAA); LHP Ed Yarnall (13-4, AAA); RHP Jeff Juden (11-12, AAA); RHP Jay Tessmer (28 saves, AAA); RHP Ryan Bradley(5-12, AAA); SS Alfonso Soriano (.305, 15 HR, AA). Offense Runs scored/allowed: 900/731 (+169) Home runs: 193 On-base percentage: .366 Slugging percentage: .453 Team on-base + slugging: .819 Leadoff on-base pct.: .387 1-2-3 on-base pct.: .385 Walk/strikeout ratio: 718/978 Stolen bases/caught stealing: 104/57 Ground into double plays: 137 Tino Martinez led the Yankees in homers with 28. Bernie Williams led the team with 115 RBI. But they were still the most consistent offensive team in the division because of their style -- they take pitches, they hit to situations and they wear out good pitchers and beat up on opponents' soft middle relief. There was no better example than the two eighth-inning rallies against Boston in the ALCS. They got 277 runs and a combined .415 on base percentage out of their 1-2 spots thanks to Chuck Knoblaugh and Derek Jeter, and while there are some concerns about Knoblauch -- his groundball/flyball ratio was 0.84, which means he's hitting twice as many balls in the air as he did five years ago -- Jeter has more hits after his first four seasons than Pete Rose, Ty Cobb or Stan Musial. O'Neill is now 37, and Martinez's key production numbers have dropped to below the AL first base average (.798 on-base + slugging, with .840 the first base norm). But they hope three factors wear off aging in other places in the order: Rickey Ledee becomes a productive slasher in left, Jorge Posada returns to his '98 form and gives them 25 home runs behind the plate and Scott Brosius has his usual even-year season. With D'Angelo Jimenez taking Luis Sojo's utility spot and Alfonso Soriano on the horizon, they have more offensive depth. They may need a spare outfielder. So? Pitching Starters: 71-50, 4.33 ERA Quality starts: 90 Starters' innings pitched: 1002.2 Team strikeout/walk ratio: 1,111/581 Team groundball/flyball ratio: 1.24 Opponents' on-base + slugging: .730 Bullpen: 27-14, 3.69 ERA Saves/opportunties: 50-for-67 Appearances/innings: 359/437 George Steinbrenner agreed that to trade Ramiro Medoza, Eddie Yarnall and Ryan Bradley for Mike Hampton -- without knowing they could sign Hampton -- was too huge a gamble, since David Cone, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens are also potential free agents in November. Anyway, at this point, while one can pick at each starter with the exception of Orlando Hernandez and see some decay, no team in the division has the starting depth of the Yankees. Last year, the Red Sox actually had better starting numbers because of Pedro Martinez's unbelievable season. But, if Clemens comes back and Pettitte has two good halves, the Yankees could be dominant again. Yarnall gets the fifth spot. If he fails, George will either go with Mendoza or order out. Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the league, and with Stanton, Watson, Mendoza and Jeff Nelson, Joe Torre has right-left setup help that doesn't often get worn down since the starters pitch a lot of innings. Defense Errors: 111 Unearned runs: 70 Double play percentage: .530 Outfield assists: 29 Opponents' stolen base pct.: 73.0 Knoblauch's throwing is a huge concern. Posada may not quite have the trust and comraderie of Girardi. Williams is sometimes inconsistent in center. But the plusses make it a very solid defense, particularly on the left side of the infield, which helps Pettitte and Yarnall. Spring training questions Is Knoblauch over his throwing thing? Can Ledee or Shane Spencer grab left field? Is Darryl Strawberry the DH? Is Yarnall ready to be the fifth starter? Is Clemens in '97-'98 condition? Pre-spring expectations The Yankees go into yet another season as the favorites, and because of all the potential free agents and the team's age, there is a chance that this could be their final hurrah. They have the best pitching from 1 to 11, and if the signs of decay hold off, they should be productive enough. If, however, the payroll hits $100 million and they get off to a bad start, one never knows what to think about the Phinneas T. Bluster factor. 2000 team song "That Train Don't Stop Here" Boston Red Sox 1999 record: 94-68, second place (-4) Attendance: 2.45 million Offseason transactions Traded SS Adam Everett and LHP Greg Miller to Houston for CF Carl Everett. Traded CF Damon Buford to the Cubs for IF Manny Alexander. Traded OF Jon Nunnally to the Mets for OF Jermaine Allensworth. Signed free agent LHPs Jeff Fassero and Sang Lee. Sold IF Lou Merloni and RHP Bob Wolcott to Japan. Released RHP Pat Rapp and OF Butch Huskey. Lost free agengt DH Reggie Jefferson and LHP Kent Mercker. Rookies and other strangers 3B Wilton Veras (.281, 11 HR, AA); 1B Dernell Stenson (.270, 18 HR, AAA); OF Michael Coleman (.274, 24 HR, AAA); RHP Jin Ho Cho (9-3, AAA); RHP Tomo Ohka (15-0, AA-AAA); RHP Sun Woo Kim (9-8, AA). Offense Runs scored/allowed: 836/718 (+118) Home runs: 176 On-base percentage: .350 Slugging percentage: .448 Team on-base + slugging: .798 Leadoff on-base pct.: .401 1-2-3 on-base pct.: .355 Walk/strikeout ratio: 597/928 Stolen bases/Caught stealing: 67/39 Grounded into double plays: 131 If the Boston media doesn't get to Carl Everett, his acquisition was one of the most important of the offseason. Check what they had in center field last season: .238 with seven homers and a .627 on-base + slugging (OPS). Everett was at .969 (Ken Griffey was .960), and he did it in the Astrodome, perhaps the toughest hitting park in baseball. Then, remember he's in a middle-of-the-field skill position and moves into the middle of the order with Nomar Garciaparra. The entire lineup is now deeper. Jose Offerman had the second-best leadoff on-base percentage in the league. The big problem is the two hole, where they had an abysmal .297 on-base percentage. Jimy Williams has to decide whether or not to put John Valentin there; Valentin has declined for three years and has trouble with signs (kind of a problem for that lineup spot), but perhaps offseason knee surgery will help. Everett lengthens the order for Troy O'Leary and the Mike Stanley/Brian Daubach 1B/DH combination. Trot Nixon's second half showed dramatic improvement, so he either goes into the two spot or gives them a .390-type on-base percentage in the ninth spot. If Jason Varitek becomes the 30-home run hitter they believe he can and Michael Coleman provides some juice against lefties, they could outscore the Yankees. Pitching Starters: 64-48, 4.04 ERA Quality starts: 78 Starters' innings pitched: 894.1 Team strikeout/walk ratio: 1,131/469 Team groundball/flyball ratio: 1.28 Opponents' on-base + slugging: .713 Bullpen: 30-20, 3.93 ERA Saves/opportunties: 50-for-72 Appearances/innings: 412/542.1 Their No. 2 starter, Ramon Martinez, has pitched in four games in two seasons. Their third starter, Jeff Fassero, had a 7.20 ERA. Their fourth starter, Tim Wakefield, was 5-9, 5.86 as a starter. Their fifth starter, Brian Rose, has a 5.58 career ERA. But because Pedro Martinez is the best in the game, they think the rotation has a chance to be solid; they have some promising depth in Ohka, Cho and Kim, so they think they will come close to duplicating last season when they led the league in starters' ERA, even though Pat Rapp was second on the team in starts and John Wasdin was third in wins (what did ever happen to Mark Portugal?). If Ramon holds up and pitches as he did in the playoffs, he will give them a monumental lift. Fassero is back with Joe Kerrigan, who was his pitching coach in Montreal. If Rose (.202 vs. LH hitters) can use his changeup against right-handers and be more consistent pitching inside, he can be a 200-inning, 12-win guy. Juan Pena is another sleeper, if healthy. Oh, they hope Bret Saberhagen will come back and they'll sign a bunch of walk-ons, but it comes down to Pedro staying healthy and finding consistent 2-3-4 starters. The loss of Tom Gordon and the uncertainty of Rod Beck forces Derek Lowe into a supercloser role. If Beck, a full year off surgery, has a little more velocity, he may close a bunch of two-run leads, saving Lowe for the tough saves. They hope Rich Garces stays healthy again, because Rheal Cormier dominated lefties (.198) and they think Sang Lee, who pitched with a ponytail halfway down his back in Japan, can be a valuable addition. Ohka or Cho can fit here as well. The bullpen was taxed last year and may have survived because Williams went through so many closers, but they have to get more innings out of their starters in 2000. Defense Errors: 127 Unearned runs: 80 Double play percentage: .498 Outfield assists: 25 Opponents' stolen base pct.: 73.0 Everett gives them a much-needed arm in the outfield, and Varitek is a premier handler of pitchers. But all spring you'll see Offerman and Garciaparra working together on double plays; that .498 stat for potential double plays turned may not be totally accurate, but it was the worst percentage in the game. Valentin did not have a good year because of his knee, and first base is not exactly a bunch of David Seguis. If Donnie Sadler goes to Pawtucket and learns to keep the ball on the ground, don't be surprised if he's at second base down the stretch with Offerman either at DH or first. People talk of how well the Sox catch the ball, and they did, to a degree, but they gave up a lot of unearned runs and made a lot of errors. Spring training questions How do Ramon, Fassero, Rose, Pena, et al shake down behind Pedro? Is Beck throwing any better? Is Saberhagen projectable to midseason? How different is Valentin after surgery? How are Offerman and Garciaparra working together? Who bats second? Is Coleman maturing enough to the point where the manager will even look at him? Pre-spring expectations Even the most diehard Red Sox fan is skeptical, with Gordon gone and Pedro hard-pressed to duplicate a magical season. But Everett is a boost and they did things with smoke and mirrors last season, so fans think they can do the same this time around if they get a Ramon, Nixon and Fassero miracle. 2000 team song "Till the Medicine Takes" Toronto Blue Jays 1999 record: 84-78, 3rd place (-14) Attendance: 2.16 million Offseason transactions Traded OF Shawn Green and 2B Jorge Nunez to L.A. for OF Raul Mondesi and LHP Pedro Borbon. Traded RHP Pat Hentgen and LHP Paul Spoljaric to St. Louis for RHP Matt DeWitt, LHP Lance Painter and C Alberto Castillo. Re-signed free agents OF Jacob Brumfeld and IF Willie Otanez. 1B David Segui accepted arbitration. Lost free agent LHP Graeme Lloyd, OF Brian McRae, 3B Tony Fernandez and C Pat Borders. Rookies and other strangers CF Vernon Wells(.337, 24 HR, A-AA-AAA); OF Anthony Sanders (.244, AAA); 3B-OF Andy Thompson (.276, 34 HR, AA-AAA); 1B Kevin Witt (.278, 24 HR, AAA); LHP Clayton Andrews (10-8, AA); RHP Gary Glover (12-11, AA-AAA); LHP John Bale (2-5, AA-AAA). Offense Runs scored/allowed: 883/862 (+21) Home runs: 212 On-base percentage: .352 Slugging percentage: .457 Team on-base + slugging: .809 Leadoff on-base pct.: .377 1-2-3 on-base pct.: .371 Walk/strikeout ratio: 578/1,077 Stolen bases/Caught stealing: 119/48 Grounded into double plays: 129 This is a team that had a decent offensive year -- fifth in the league in runs scored. Tony Batista hit 30 homers? But Jim Fregosi thinks it will get better, especially with Raul Mondesi getting out of Dodger Stadium and into a hitter-friendly park. Shannon Stewart, a potential star in the leadoff position, will hit in front of Homer Bush and Mondesi, and Fregosi expects 125-140 steals out of those three positions. Then he has Carlos Delgado, David Segui, Batista and Alex Gonzalez. Two important keys are Bush becoming the offensive player Fregosi believes he will, and Junior Cruz developing; they think Vernon Wells is a potential star, but probably isn't ready yet. With their speed, they could be a 900-run team. Pitching Starters: 63-58, 5.14 ERA Quality starts: 71 Starters' innings pitched: 965.2 Team strikeout/walk ratio: 1,009/575 Team groundball/flyball ratio: 1.27 Opponents' on-base + slugging: .800 Bullpen: 21-20, 4.49 ERA Saves/opportunties: 39-for-58 Appearances/innings: 377/473.1 Even with all the brouhaha surrounding Tim Johnson in spring training and the February trade of Roger Clemens, the Jays thought they potentially had the best starting staff in the league -- but look at that starters' ERA. Ouch. Now Pat Hentgen is gone, but Fregosi thinks they can be more than respectable. David Wells has to stay healthy, but his back is a major concern. Chris Carpenter's season was shut down with an elbow, but they believe he and Roy Halladay are special. If Kelvim Escobar matures and Joey Hamilton is healthy, they're OK. But those are big ifs, especially since there is much behind them otehr than Peter Munro. If Wells, Carpenter and Halladay have good seasons, they may go get another pitcher to make a run. Billy Koch may be the best young closer in the league, with what Fregosi calls "the best stuff I've ever seen." They get Paul Quantrill and John Frascatore from the start of the season, but unless Painter and Borbon come over and have big years, they may have some serious depth problems. Defense Errors: 106 Unearned runs: 75 Double play percentage: .590 Outfield assists: 29 Opponents' stolen base pct.: 70.0 If Gonzalez is recovered from surgery -- and they're convinced he is -- then with Batista at third and Bush with a full season behind him at second, the Jays should have an improved infield. How well they play in the outfield depends on Cruz and Wells and how strongly Mondesi comes back, if he does. Castillo gives them a throwing catcher. But why is the best defensive first baseman in the league a DH? Spring training questions Are Hamilton, Carpenter and Halladay ready to go into the rotation? How do Cruz and Wells look? Is Gonzalez's arm back to normal? Pre-spring expectations The Blue Jays think they can make a run at the wild card, and if they're in the hunt come June may be allowed to go get a player or two to bring the fans back in October. They have built this team around the young pitching. Now is the time for Carpenter, Halladay, Escobar and Koch to get them back into the postseason. It isn't easy paying out in American dollars and taking in Canadian, but they probably have the most productive scouting department in the game. 2000 team song "Blue Sky Mine" Baltimore Orioles 1999 record: 78-84, 4th place (-20) Attendance: 3.43 million Offseason transactions Traded LHP Jesse Orosco to Mets for LHP Chuck McElroy. Traded IF Jeff Reboulet to Kansas City for player to be named later. Traded SS Augie Ojeda to Cubs for RHP Richard Negrette. Signed free agents RHP Aarone Sele, LHP Buddy Groom, C Greg Myers, 1B Jeff Conine, DH Harold Baines and RHP Mike Trombley. Rookies and other strangers 2B Jerry Hairston (.291, AAA); OF Eugene Kingsale (.302, AAA); 1B Calvin Pickering (.285, 16 HR, AAA); IF Jesse Garcia (.255, AAA); 3B Ryan Minor (.256, 18 HR, AAA); LHP Matt Riley (12-9, A-AAA); RHP Gabe Molina (2-2, 18 saves, AAA). Offense Runs scored/allowed: 851/815 (+36) Home runs: 203 On-base percentage: .353 Slugging percentage: .447 Team on-base + slugging: .800 Leadoff on-base pct.: .393 1-2-3 on-base pct.: .365 Walk/strikeout ratio: 615/890 Stolen bases/Caught stealing: 107/46 Grounded into double plays: 146 They're slow. They hit into too many double plays. They're ... experienced. Will Clark had 29 RBI. They re-signed Harold Baines, so they can keep Albert Belle in right and Brady Anderson in center. Oh, my. But Anderson still gets on base, B.J. Surhoff gives them a legitimate slasher in the three hole and Belle, Clark, Jeff Conine and Cal Ripken are capable of one more big year, especially in that park. How Ripken's back plays out is another story, but one never gives up on him. They hope that Hairston brings some life to the middle of the infield with the ever-professional Mike Bordick, and that Kingsale fills in for Anderson with some speed after hitting .340 in the Arizona Fall League. What happens to Delino DeShields is anyone's guess. Pitching Starters: 61-57, 4.71 ERA Quality starts: 77 Starters' innings pitched: 993.1 Team strikeout/walk ratio: 982/647 Team Groundball/flyball ratio: 1.34 Opponents' on-base + slugging: .787 Bullpen: 17-27, 4.89 ERA Saves/opportunties: 33-for-58 Appearances/innings: 393/441.2 Syd Thrift's signing of Sele would have given Baltimore one of the best rotations in the league, with four right-handers who all topped 200 innings last season and won a combined 63 games. But now they're still a starter short. Mike Mussina is a legit No. 1 and has done remarkable things considering the HO-scale park he works in. Incidentally, why hasn't the Family Angelos signed him? Scott Erickson eats innings and wins his 15 games, and Sidney Ponson is the man to watch; he could be a 16-18 game winner this season, especially with Sammy Ellis to help his mechanics. They want Jason Johnson in the fifth spot, so they'll still go get someone. They spent a lot of money on Trombley and Groom, more than $4.5 million a year between them. The theory is that with Trombley, Mike Timlin and Chuck McElroy they can spread out the save opportunities and pressure. Those 27 losses and 25 blown saves were pretty bad last season. They can't be as bad, but how much better will they be? Defense Errors: 89 Unearned runs: 55 Double play percentage: .650 Outfield assists: 39 Opponents' stolen base pct.: 65.0 People look at the lack of errors and think this is a good defense, and Bordick had a great defensive year at shortstop. But those who watched the club a lot thought this was a below-average defensive team because of poor range. Bordick and Charles Johnson are probably the only two above-average defenders. Ripken, of course, is a question because of his back, and Clark's defense is a worry. As for the outfield, the staff last year spent the season ranting about how much Anderson had lost in center and how few balls Belle gets to, and there they are again. Don't put it past Brady to go out and prove everyone wrong. Spring training questions First and foremost: how will Belle and Mike Hargrove get along? Hargrove has already said that he doesn't want Belle skipping BP and doing his own private flip drills with brother Terry. Does Belle care what Grover thinks? Then one has to look for the medical and age signs on Ripken, Clark and Anderson. Can Hairston win the second base position? Can Kingsale help? Is Ponson a No. 2-3 starter? Can the bullpen be molded? Pre-spring expectations After several seasons of postseason expectations, the Orioles go into the season knowing they will be picked no higher than third with little expectation of making it into October. The front office thinks they have the starting pitching and power to be contenders, and if they are, they know Peter Angelos will put down his guns aimed at the state of Maryland (for paring down his fees for the tobacco settlement) and give Thrift the money to get what he -- or the committee -- thinks they need. 2000 team song "What I Deserve" Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1999 record: 69-93, fifth place (-29) Attendance: 1.75 million Offseason transactions Traded RHP Rolando Arroyo and IF Aaron Ledesma to Colorado for 3B Vinnie Castilla. Signed free agent OFs Greg Vaughn and Gerald Williams along with P Juan Guzman. Lost free agent RHP Bobby Witt and 1B Paul Sorrento. Selected RHPs Chad Ogea and Chris Reitsma in Rule 5 draft. Rookies and other strangers RHP Cory Lidle (0-0. A-AA); RHP Dan Wheeler (10-5, AA-AAA); RHP Jeff Sparks (AA-AAA); OF Luke Wilcox (.288, 29 HR, AA-AAA). Offense Runs scored/allowed: 772/913 (-141) Home runs: 145 On-base percentage: .343 Slugging percentage: .411 Team on-base + slugging: .754 Leadoff on-base pct.: .338 1-2-3 on-base pct.: .351 Walk/strikeout ratio: 544/1,042 Stolen bases/Caught stealing: 73/49 Grounded into double plays: 157 OK, so now they're going to hit 300 home runs with Jose Canseco, Castilla, Vaughn and Fred McGriff. They could be fun, especially in that little dome. But here are are doses of reality: who believes that Canseco will stay healthy no matter how hard he works in the offseason, and who thinks Vaughn can stay healthy on turf? If they all do, fine, and if the game's fastest turf doesn't eat Castilla up at third base, fine. But then there are a couple more questions before one thinks about defense: who gets on base for these guys? The Devil Rays' leadoff on-base percentage was bad, and Gerald Williams is a .313 guy over the last five seasons. They're trying to trade Dave Martinez, the best potential leadoff hitter. So they have Randy Winn, Quinton McCracken, Williams and Bubba Trammell for CF-RF other than Martinez. They have to DH Canseco and keep Vaughn on the turf. Pitching Starters: 45-69, 5.33 ERA Quality starts: 66 Starters' innings pitched: 876.2 Team strikeout/walk ratio: 1,055/695 Team Groundball/flyball ratio: 1.33 Opponents' on-base + slugging: .817 Bullpen: 24-24, 4.63 ERA Saves/opportunties: 45-for-62 Appearances/innings: 453/556.1 Wilson Alvarez has to step up and be more than a nine-game winner, and while he has the ability to do so, the fact is that over the last five years his average season is 10-11. At $17 million for the next two years, that may not be enough. They like what Ryan Rupe (8-9) gave them as a rookie and hope Dan Wheeler can step in. But after that, they have whatever free agents they can sign plus Chad Ogea and the experience of putting Esteban Yan in the rotation. That bears watching. Larry Rothschild wants to hold onto Roberto Hernandez, because this is a team that needs to hold what leads it gets. Hernandez saved 43 of 47 last season, and is a key to the grasp at respectability. Albie Lopez threw well last season, and if Jim Mecir comes back, he gets lefties out. Yan may end up in the rotation, and there's the story of Jim Morris, the 35-year-old high school teacher-turned-reliever. Disney is doing the movie. What Rothschild doesn't yet know is whether or not he can do the job. Defense Errors: 135 Unearned runs: 108 Double play percentage: .591 Outfield assists: 31 Opponents' stolen base pct.: 59.0 Everyone in the organization agreed last September that they need to get younger and more athletic, especially given their home turf. So they're older (32.5 average starting age), slower, less athletic. What they hope is that Kevin Stocker and Miguel Cairo make the routine plays in the middle of the infield, and that Castilla's range is irrelevent on turf. Williams is a solid center fielder, John Flaherty a solid receiver, and they have Mike DiFelice to trade. Spring training questions Who pitches? Can Yan start? Is Wheeler ready? Can Alvarez take charge? How do RF-CF shake out, and how many deals can Chuck LaMarr make to trim payroll and add pitching? Pre-spring expectations The idea of these moves was to grab the region's attention and try to get Florida folks interested. Whether or not people in that market can stay up to see the final two innings of 17-14 games remains to be seen. They know they're going to be close to last place. They might as well finish last with a bang and hope young pitchers like Jason Standridge, Matt White and Bobby Seay have seasons that put them into the team's 2001 dreams. 2000 team song "Bulls on Parade" | Gammons: New century, same question  | |||||