| | Editor's note: ESPN.com is pleased to be the exclusive online home for Peter Gammons. Look for Gammons' weekly contributions here and bi-weekly in ESPN The Magazine.
The 21st century begins with the most popular chorus of the 20th
century: can anyone beat the Yankees?
"I don't think any team has done enough this winter to say it is closing
the gap on the Yankees," says one NL general manager. "The Mets? Maybe, maybe
not. The Braves? Same thing. The Indians added Chuck Finley, but they've also
deleted their closer and have some other questions. Boston? Carl Everett is a
big addition, but other than Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, who pitches for
that team? Texas has lost a two-time MVP (Juan Gonzalez), their number one
starter (Aaron Sele), their third baseman (Todd Zeile), their center
fielder (Tom Goodwin) and second baseman (Mark McLemore). Houston's lost their
top starter (Mike Hampton) and their best money player (Everett)."
|  | | The Yankees are the team to beat -- especially if Roger Clemens can improve upon his 14-10, 4.60 mark of last season. |
So while the Indians, Red Sox, Rangers and Blue Jays view the Yankees as far more vulnerable than they seemed last January because of the possibility of aging and rusting in the pitching staff, none of the other competitors has convinced its fans that it can upend the Bronx Bombers, especially when they realize that George Steinbrenner still hasn't countered Fred Wilpon's acquisition of Hampton.
Actually, the Yanks had first dibs on Hampton for Ramiro Mendoza and Eddie
Yarnall, but backed off when the 'Stros refused to give them permission to
talk to Hampton about extending his contract. Could David Cone break down?
Sure. But Roger Clemens could come back and win 20 games. Could Tino Martinez
and Paul O'Neill age? Sure. But Jorge Posada and Ricky Ledee could blossom. Yarnall, whom Brian Cashman grabbed from the Marlins rather than allowing Mike Lowell to rot on the bench, will move into the rotation. Throw in the addition of
another strong arm from Montreal in March to go with Jake Westbrook in the
Hideki Irabu deal, and the Yankees are beginning an influx of young players into a
veteran championship team.
"What most of the contending clubs understand is that you don't build a
team for January," says Red Sox GM Dan Duquette. "You try to build a team
that is competitive for the regular season and leave yourself enough
flexibility to get what you need. There are two levels to that
flexibility, as well, because you have to build a team for the regular season
and a team for the postseason."
Duquette realizes that there are hitters who
crush mediocre pitching in the regular season matchups with Kansas City and
Florida, but are not going to hit anything against the good October pitching,
as well as pitchers who can outlast the soft underbelly for six months.
A rundown of the teams in the Yankees' rear-view mirror:
Mets
With the addition of Hampton and a year's experience realizing they
might have had the best team in the National League, the Mets would seem to
be the team built to get into the playoffs and last long into October. Hampton gives them that one guy who opens a series against Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux. Hampton brings the league's best groundball/flyball ratio to the best defensive infield, they have hitters who work the opposing team for high-pitch counts and a deep bullpen.
But ... there are some big questions. Why were they so willing to
trade Armando Benitez and are they as worried about his elbow as were the
Orioles? After Hampton and Al Leiter and Rick Reed -- if he holds up -- how good is
the pitching? Steve Phillips is trying to pawn off the salaries of Masato
Yoshii and Bobby Jones to clear payroll so that they can sign one more
pitcher (Aaron Sele or Juan Guzman).
Derek Bell's slugging percentage against right-handers was lower than that of Rey Ordonez; will Bell rebound? What
about Rickey Henderson? And with Zeile, who has 85 games of experience at
first base (and made four errors in of those games), replacing John
Olerud, there is a major concern. Olerud's moving on and off the bag helped give
Mike Piazza a step-and-a-half with basestealers. Will they now run wild against the Mets? And if the Mets struggle, will Bobby Valentine's contract and relationship with Tommy Lasorda become an
issue?
Braves
They start 2000 the way they've started every year since their
wonderful ascent in 1991 -- as the National League team to beat to get
to the World Series. The Phillies, Marlins and Padres all did, but the fact
that Atlanta has been in five of the last eight World Series shows that
they've been to the NL what Florida State has been to ACC football.
Last March, with the additions of Brian Jordan and Bret Boone,
they seemed more of a sure thing than ever; by October, with all their
injuries, it was remarkable that they even got to Yankee Stadium. Maddux, John
Smoltz and Tom Glavine have been doing this for a long time, but there were minor chinks in the armor last season. Maddux led the
league in hits allowed and the combined slugging and on-base
percentages against him zoomed to .726 after being .554 from 1993-97; Glavine had an ERA over 4.00 for the first time since 1990; and Smoltz's elbow is always a concern.
While they believe Javy Lopez will come back, they are concerned enough about
Andres Galarraga to have picked up Wally Joyner. The combined on-base
percentage of Quilvio Veras and Reggie Sanders is 60 points higher than what
they got out of the 1-2 holes last season, and outfield prospect George Lombard, the MVP of the Arizona Fall League, is hitting over .300 in Venezuela.
But do they trade for a shortstop like Toronto's Alex Gonzalez and figure superkid Rafael
Furcal (.429 on-base percentage, 16 steals in the Dominican) eventually moves
to second base? Most of all, will the John Rocker brouhaha carry over? The fact
that Andruw Jones and Bruce Chen lived with Rocker at his parents' home in
Macon when they played together in Class A ball there certainly helps him. "He's not like that with us," says Lopez.
Red Sox
With Carl Everett, a switch-hitting, "seventh-eighth-ninth inning
producer" (as Larry Dierker calls him) moving into center field, the
Red Sox are now constructed around a superstar shortstop, a switch-hitting
second baseman who is one of the two best leadoff hitters in the AL, an
All-Star-level center fielder and a switch-hitting catcher in Jason Varitek who could hit 30-35 homers this season. If John Valentin comes back off knee surgery and Trot Nixon makes the expected improvement (his second half slugging + on-base percentage
was a terrific .976; Albert Belle was .941 for the season), offense won't be a
problem.
And if Ramon Martinez holds up for 180-200 innings throwing as he
did in the playoffs, the pitching may be surprising. But with Tom Gordon gone
for good, Bret Saberhagen out indefinitely and Pat Rapp, who was second on the staff
behind Pedro Martinez in starts, gone, there are big questions. They think
Derek Lowe can close against good teams and Rod Beck can get the two-run
saves with the help of lefty relievers Rheal Cormier and Sang Lee. But the Sox must
find three starters from among Jeff Fassero, Brian Rose, Tim Wakefield, Juan
Pena and Sun Woo Kim. Duquette claims they are tapped out for cash and cannot trade Scott Hatteberg for Yoshii, a deal he turned down at the July 31 trading
deadline and could revisit right now.
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|
| |
| 1999 SEASON STATISTICS |
| G |
W |
L |
IP |
K |
ERA |
| 33 |
12 | 11 |
213.1 | 200 |
4.43 | |
|
Indians
Go back. If John Hart had traded for Chuck Finley on July
31 -- and he could have had he included Jared Camp, claimed in the Rule V draft
last month -- Cleveland would have played in the ALCS, not Boston. If Dave
Burba been healthy, Jaret Wright had his confidence ... but it didn't happen,
and now Kenny Lofton is out for half the season and Mike Jackson signed with the Phillies.
They might be able to get Rondell White for Travis Fryman and Jacob Cruz,
then sign an Ed Sprague or Russ Davis while giving Russell Branyan a shot at third.
Or they may let Cruz and Dave Roberts fill for Lofton. Runs? Not a problem.
The division? They'll clinch by May Day, no matter how much improved the White
Sox and Tigers might be. They have to get Wright turned around, keep Finley
healthy and hope that Paul Shuey holds up at the end of the bullpen,
Steve Karsay's arm holds in the middle and lefty Ricardo Rincon gets lefties
out the way he did in '98 with Pittsburgh (.131), not the way he did for the
Indians (.233).
This is a very good team, and Charlie Manuel will be a fresh voice and the Dolan family will extend payroll to bring a great baseball city a world
championship, whereas Dick Jacobs, who restored that baseball tradition and built the ballpark, was a brilliant businessman who demanded an annual eight percent profit.
Rangers
OK, we know who's gone, and we don't know what Gabe Kapler will
produce in right, Ruben Mateo will produce in center, Mike Lamb (or Tom Evans,
who is having a big winter in Venezuela) will produce at third. But Doug
Melvin is trying to compete and develop simultaneously, which is extremely
difficult, and now has gotten younger, more athletic, picked up five top draft
picks from departing free agents and has $5-8 million stored away to go get what he needs during the season.
Melvin also has taken an all right-handed starting staff in a left-handed
hitters' park and made it left-handed with Kenny Rogers, Justin Thompson and
rookie Matt Perisho, along with a couple of other promising lefties, Corey
Lee and Doug Davis. It could be that the Rangers are the classic regular
season/postseason team: they may not be anywhere near as good as the club
that won 95 games in the regular season, but better prepared to take on payroll dumps during the season and have a club better suited to October.
Big money in Gotham City
It's hard to calculate payrolls this time of year because of arbitration-eligible players and open roster spots. But no matter how you add it up, New
York may be where the power lies. It is also where the wealth is. With George
Steinbrenner setting up his own cable station and the Mets in the
process of being sold to Charles Dolan and Cablevision, the money enables
them to have the two highest payrolls.
Conservatively estimating the Yankees' six arbitration-eligible players at
$23 million -- and Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera may run up a lot more than
anticipated -- the Yankees are right at $93 million before filling their final four roster
spots or bringing in a veteran utility player like Roberto Kelly. While
the Mets are getting somewhere around $750,000 in the Hampton/Bell deal, they
are up around $87 million with four spots to be filled.
The six estimates on the Dodger arbitration-eligibles brings them to $83 million with four spots open, and as
the Braves and Indians now stand, they will be in the $78-$80M range once
all their spots are filled. Baltimore is right below the $70M range, which is
why they're still bidding for Sele and will go after more $2 million Buddy Grooms.
Boston is close to $70M, and as Duquette tells other clubs that
he's proud he's made John Harrington money every year -- even though their local
TV deals have been screwed up and last year didn't get $6M of the $10M they
were owed in their over-the-air deal -- the Red Sox have raised their top box seats from $35
to $45. The sad part is that these are not rich yuppies who jumped on board
because of Pedro and Nomar; most have been seatholders for 10 to 20 years and many areworking people who the club does not care about pricing out of Fenway.
Young minds know value of OPS
There is no ultimate stat, although the one most quoted -- batting
average -- is about as irrelevant as any one could run across. Ask any of the
bright young minds around in the game -- Billy Beane, Brian Cashman, Ed
Wade, Dan O'Dowd -- and they will go back to one very simple
formula: on-base percentage + slugging percentage (OPS), for hitters and even pitchers. It combines the two key elements of scoring runs: getting on base and hitting for power.
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OPS leaders, 1999
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The best hitters according to on-base percentage + slugging percentage (OPS):
1. Larry Walker, 1.168
2. Mark McGwire, 1.120
3. Manny Ramirez, 1.105
4. Chipper Jones, 1.074
5. Rafael Palmeiro, 1.050
6. Jeff Bagwell, 1.045
7. Brian Giles, 1.032
8. Nomar Garciaparra, 1.022
9. Sammy Sosa, 1.002
10. Edgar Martinez, 1.001
11. Bobby Abreu, .005
12. Derek Jeter, .989
13. Todd Helton, .981
14. Juan Gonzalez, .980
15. Vladimir Guerrero, .978
16. Jason Giambi, .975
17. Shawn Green, .972
18. Bernie Williams, .971
19. John Jaha, .969
20. Carl Everett, .969
The complete listing can be found at ESPN.com's sortable stats.
|
With it, you'll see that Chipper Jones is on the highest incline, John Valentin
the fastest decline; that Carl Everett had a better 1999 season than Junior
Griffey; that Greg Maddux's numbers have risen from .472 in 1995 to .726 in '99; that David Nilsson was and is the best free-agent hitter on the market; that David Cone deserves every penny of his $12M deal; that Daryle Ward is
worth watching; and that Reggie Sanders is a huge offensive upgrade for the
Braves.
"This is what the game comes down to," says Beane, a one-time first-round
draft choice who now runs an organization that was way ahead of its time
preaching patience, pitch counts, etc. For instance, the best offensive
players in 1999? No surprise: Larry Walker (1.168, with a definite Coors Lite
factor); Mark McGwire, 1.121; Manny Ramirez, 1.105; Chipper Jones, 1.074;
Rafael Palmeiro, 1.050.
Pitchers? Pedro Martinez, .536; Kevin Millwood, .595; Randy Johnson,
.601; Mike Hampton, .646; John Smoltz, .662. Cone (.697) and Twins lefty Eric
Milton (.705) were each in the top 10, which is why Milton and third baseman
Corey Koskie were the Twins' two untouchables at the winter meetings. Also in
the top ten are Arizona's Omar Daal (.686) and Pittsburgh's Kris Benson (.694).
Some players have no trends. Scott Brosius' last four seasons: .909,
.576, .845, .721. Derek Bell, for instance, cannot be as bad as the .656 he
eeked out in Houston last year. Trot Nixon (.829) had a better total than Raul
Mondesi (.825). You might have guessed that Phillies' rising star Bobby Abreu
was up among all major league leaders at .995, but did you know that Edgar
Martinez (1.002) and Barry Bonds (1.001) still produce far better than more
heralded players? Or that Jeffrey Hammonds (.870) and Greg Vaughn (.882) are
so close, before you get to defense? Why didn't the Twins use Koskie (.855) more instead of Ron
Coomer (.731)? Aaron Sele's .802 and Andy Benes's .803 are worst among
prominent free agent pitchers.
A few categories:
On the incline
C. Jones, Atl. .850/.951/1.074
Garciaparra, Bos .876/.946/1.021
Jeter, N.Y. .775/.869/1.000
C. Everett, Bos. .728/.841/.969
On the decline
Valentin, Bos. .871/.782/.713
Castilla, TB .951/.809 (in Col)*
T. Martinez, NY .948('97)/.799('99)
Thomas, Chi. 1.067('97)/.885 ('99)
*Castilla's '99 OPS away from Coors Field was .766. The league
average, including pitchers, was .771.
Free-agent hitter Pitchers
Dave Nilsson .954 David Cone .697
John Olerud .890 Chuck Finley .716
Greg Vaughn .882 Kenny Rogers .730
Center fielders Shortstops
Brian Giles 1.032 Garciaparra 1.032
B. Williams .972 Derek Jeter 1.000
C. Everett .969 A. Rodriguez .933
Griffey Jr. .960
News and notes
Sele and the Rangers parted simply because they disagreed on his value,
so Texas got Kenny Rogers for $22.5 million for three years, with $6.75 million deferred so
Melvin has play money.
What frustrates some Astros fans is that while the team is
selling tickets to their new park, Drayton McLane has cut the payroll into
the low $40 million range. McLane claims he was losing close to $15 million a year and now wants
to make $15-25 million.
Look back a year: Houston lost Roger Clemens over Scott
Elarton, Texas lost Clemens over Ruben Mateo (although Rangers owner Tom Hicks ordered Mateo into the deal just when the Yankees did their trade with Toronto). By the way, Clemens does not have an extension signed, but knows that Randy Hendricks and George
Steinbrenner will get it worked out during the season.
The Reds are trying
to figure a way to take on Yoshii's salary. Meanwhile, most baseball people
still think Junior Griffey will end up back home in Cincinnati. Silly people say the Reds
are better off waiting a year. But there are two huge pressures prompting Jim
Bowden to get it done by spring training: 1) If Griffey indeed is to the Reds
what Mark McGwire is to the Cards, then to wait a year could cost them
$20-25 million in added revenue; and 2) If they wait a year and the Braves have a mediocre season, Turner may decide to order Stan Kasten and John Schuerholz to go get Griffey
for ratings and afford Junior the opportunity to stay home for spring
training and be an hour's flight from Orlando. Most intriguing offer for
Griffey: Jason Schmidt and Chad Hermansen from the Pirates.
The Royals are
making a strong run at non-tendered Ricky Bottalico as their closer. Russ Davis,
who was non-tendered by the Mariners, has several interesting possibilities:
from the Blue Jays (if they deal Alex Gonzalez and keep Tony Batista at short),
Expos, Indians (if they trade Fryman), Giants and the White Sox.
Royals GM Herk Robinson pulled a two-year deal with Mike Sweeney off the table, claiming that the DH will be out in 2001 and that Sweeney is essentially a DH. | |
ALSO SEE
Offseason player movement chart
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