NEW YORK - Bring 'em on, trainer Bob Baffert says. The more
challengers the better for his Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner
War Emblem.
Don't worry, Bob, you'll probably get your wish -- but you may
not like the ramifications. History says when there's a Triple
Crown on the line in the Belmont Stakes, the larger the field the
tougher it is to win.
By the time War Emblem makes his triple try on June 8, the
speedy black colt could face the largest Belmont field ever
assembled with racing's biggest prize on the line.
There could be as many as 15 opponents in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont,
ranging from Derby runner-up and third-place Preakness finisher
Proud Citizen to Irish-bred Anilin, who has only a maiden victory
in England in seven starts.
``It doesn't matter how many run against us,'' Baffert said.
``Going a mile-and-a-half and with his style close to or on the
lead, it doesn't make much difference.''
History disagrees.
The largest field for a Belmont with a Triple Crown at stake was
13 in 1971, when Canonero II's bid was spoiled by Pass Catcher.
In the 15 Belmonts when the Derby and Preakness winner lost, the
average field was just over nine horses (9.3). In the last seven
triple tries since Affirmed won in 1978, the average field
increased to nearly 10 (9.7).
In the 11 Belmonts that produced a Triple Crown winner, the
average field was just over five horses (5.4).
Affirmed in '78 and Secretariat in '73 beat just four rivals in
their Belmonts, while Seattle Slew in '77 and Citation in '48 each
defeated seven opponents. Sir Barton in 1919 and Count Fleet in
1943 each beat only two rivals to complete their Triple Crowns.
The last triple attempt -- Charismatic in 1999 -- produced a field
of 12. In Baffert's previous triple shots, his Real Quiet was
second in an 11-horse field in '98 and Silver Charm was second in a
seven-horse field in '97.
Some years, it seems there are more trainers who believe
anything can happen in a 1 1/2-mile race, a distance horses rarely
run.
``The distance is confusing because people that don't have a top
horse figure he can go a mile-and-a-half and that warrants him a
chance at running,'' said trainer Nick Zito, who doesn't have a
Belmont runner this year but has five second-place finishes in the
race. ``The trick is to go with a good horse.''
If War Emblem can overcome the large-field bias, he'll stamp
himself as the most tested Triple Crown champion ever. War Admiral
beat the most challengers (32) in sweeping the Derby, Preakness and
Belmont in 1937.
War Emblem has already dispatched 29 -- 17 in his wire-to-wire
Derby win and 12 in his three-quarter length Preakness victory.
``I'm sure there are going to be some horses up there at Belmont
that are speed horses that might want to go with him, but that's
part of the game,'' Baffert said from Churchill Downs, where War
Emblem will train up to the Belmont. ``Let 'em come and let 'em try
and let's see what he's made of.''
A look at the Belmont prospects:
From the Preakness, only War Emblem and Proud Citizen, trained
by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, are definites.
``It's a three-round fight,'' Lukas said after the Preakness.
``We'll answer the bell for the third round. I know you'd like to
see a Triple Crown for racing. I'm going to try to spoil your
dreams.''
Medaglia d'Oro, fifth in the Derby and eighth in the
Preakness, and Magic Weisner, second in the Preakness at odds of
45-1, are possibles.
Back from the Derby to challenge are third-place finisher
Perfect Drift and ninth-place finisher Essence of Dubai.
While trainer Ken McPeek will give Harlan's Holiday a rest, he
said he'll send Sarava to New York. Sarava won the Sir Barton
Stakes on the Preakness undercard.
Sunday Break and Puzzlement are set to run in Saturday's Peter
Pan Stakes, and could be Belmont-bound.
Wisemen's Ferry and Tracemark, 1-2 in the Lone Star Derby, are
possibles, as well as Fast Decision, Table Limit and Tales Of The
Crypt.
Azillion and Like A Hero could go depending on their efforts
in Thursday's Alydar Stakes at Hollywood Park.