No one seems to agree on who will win the Kentucky Derby, but everyone is on the same page when it comes to how wide open this race is. There has never been a Derby quite like this, where there are so many horses that have a chance and so many legitimate knocks on the favorites. Keeping that in mind, the sensible thing to do seems to be to take a stab at a longshot that can get the job done.

Who wants to play a 4-1, even 6-1 or 7-1 shot in this kind of race?

The pick will be just that sort of live longshot in Perfect Drift. I'm hoping to get 20-1 to 25-1 on him. If that's the case, he may not win it, but he is an awful good betting proposition. If this horse were trained by one of the big names in the business, he would be getting a lot more respect. Instead, he's trained by the perfectly capable, but relatively unknown Murray Johnson. Perfect Drift is a durable and professional horse who can definitely go the distance, is working very well in the mornings, is on the improve and has Beyer figures that definitely put him in the mix. The main knock is that he didn't beat anything when winning the Spiral Stakes. That could be true. But the numbers say that it was a fast race.

Poor Harlan's Holiday doesn't get the respect he deserves. Don't be surprised if he's a very attractive price come post time. Though there's nothing to suggest that he's a star, there are few knocks against him. It looks like he can go the distance, he loves to win, he's proven at the Grade I level and has already won over the tricky Churchill Downs surface. The only reasons that he is not the top selection is that I don't want to pick the morning line favorite in this kind of race and am admittedly frightened by the fact he ran the final quarter mile in the Blue Grass in a poky 13.40 seconds and that his final time was an even pokier 1:51.40.

Let's go with another intriguing longshot in Castle Gandolfo. The lesser regarded of the two horses coming in for Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien, his credentials could actually be better than those of stablemate Johannesburg. He is also a top class horse who has twice finished second in Grade I competition, including one race last year at a mile and a quarter. Also like the fact that Jerry Bailey, reportedly, has stuck with him and didn't make the switch to Johannesburg when jockey Mick Kinane was suspended. Not worried about the fact he's only had one prep, his victory in the Foster's International. Not only did the third-place finisher in that race, Dupont, come back to win a Group II race in Italy, but trainer O'Brien will have this horse ready. You can count on him having had significant preparation at his Ballydoyle Training Center. Request For Parole finished just a neck behind Perfect Drift in the Spiral, so has to be respected if you like Perfect Drift.

Private Emblem is still another live longshot. The New York bred may not have beaten a quality field in the Arkansas Derby, but he got the job done in impressive fashion. Breaking from post 11 in the mile and an eighth race, he kicked clear of the field inside the final furlong with a strong burst of acceleration.

Came Home is another of the marquee horses that appears to be vulnerable. He's by Gone West, which may or may not indicate he can go a mile and a quarter. The real knock is that his performances, albeit winning ones, have been less and less impressive and slower and slower as the distances have increased.

Johannesburg remains a bit of a mystery. He was so good as a 2-year-old, but doesn't have the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter and was beaten in his lone start this year when he was supposed to romp. Too many negatives to like him.

Didn't like Essence of Dubai before and especially don't like him now that stable rider Frankie Dettori has decided to stay in Europe to ride in the English 2000 Guineas aboard 9-1 shot Naheef.

Proud Citizen got away with ridiculously slow fractions when winning the Lexington while earning a modest speed figure. Nothing about that race suggests that he can win the Derby.

Easy Grades looks like the second best horse from California behind Came Home. That won't do.

In some other kind of race, War Emblem would be a horse to fear. But he stole the Illinois Derby and that will never happen here. Without a comfortable early lead, he should be toast.

Sorry, just don't get all the support for Saarland. His claim to fame is that he won a dreadfully slow Remsen Stakes before coming up well short in his two preps this year. Just too slow, unless he improves dramatically.

Picks Summary: 1. Perfect Drift 2. Harlan's Holiday 3. Castle Gandolfo