| | Now, this is when things really get exciting. It's October, we're at a short track and the pressure is starting to build. We've got new faces in Victory Lane. Mark Martin went back to Victory Lane. And Dale Jarrett continues to close in on his first NASCAR Winston Cup championship.
If you're not excited about the race this weekend, I'm taking away your status as a knowledgeable race fan.
The NAPA Autocare 500 is the 28th race of the Winston Cup season. It's held at the flat, half-mile, Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Va. This is where Ricky Rudd extended his 16-season victory streak last year and where John Andretti put "The King" back in Victory Lane this spring.
Certainly you remember this race from last year. The system that Rudd used
to cool his helmet during the race failed from the very start of the race.
Somehow, he gutted-out the long, hot day. Driving a great car, Rudd wound up
in Victory Lane. Actually, he wound up on the ground in Victory Lane --
exhausted, but a winner.
There have been 11 different winners in the past 11 short track races. If
the short tracks have been anything, they've been unpredictable. And when
you look at Rudd's victory last year, you have the feeling Martinsville will
probably produce something dramatic.
In the 27 Winston Cup races this season, Jarrett and his Ford Quality Care
team have posted 20 top-5 finishes to build a 257-point lead in the
standings on Martin, who climbed over Bobby Labonte into second place.
Jarrett ran extremely well at Dover, finishing third, weathering a storm
that had seen him finish 16th or worse in three of the previous four races.
Jarrett didn't win, and the guy who is now closest to him in points, did.
Still, Jarrett actually gained ground.
Labonte started the day second in points, finished fifth in the MBNA Gold
400, but slipped to third in points. Martin was third in points, won the
race, moved into second in points. Jarrett went to Dover 254 points ahead,
and left 257 points ahead. Strange how things work when it comes to Winston
Cup points.
I believe the next three races will determine the Winston Cup championship.
That doesn't mean Jarrett will own the Cup when the checkered flag falls at
Talladega, but I think we'll know if it's going to have his name on it.
There are three tough tests the next three weeks for every driver, but they
are three really big tests for Jarrett and his crew.
Martinsville is a short track, but it's also what I consider a small track.
Fourty-three cars on a half-mile track is a traffic jam of big city
proportions. It's good racing, but it's hard to pass simply because there is
so little space. Pit road is very tight. Pitting at Martinsville is like
trying to parallel park, in a tank, in the dark, while it's raining. You can
be pitting at Martinsville, minding your own business and get "doored"
without any notice.
On the race track, a driver's biggest fear is getting scrunched in a
slow-motion, 27 car wreck that wasn't your fault, just like driving to work
on the highway. It's the old, "Wrong place, wrong time," philosophy.
Or, it could be something less exciting, like, say, your car broke. Jarrett
finished 42nd in this race last year. That kind of finish this weekend could
turn a distant field of pretenders into a crowded jumble of championship
contenders.
In the spring of this year, Jarrett finished eighth. See ya.
In the last seven races at Martinsville Jarrett has an
eighth-place finish (spring of '99) and a third place finish, (spring of
'98). In the other five races: 12th, 16th twice, 29th and 42nd. Projected
finish for Dale Jarrett at Martinsville on Sunday? How about a nice safe
11th.
If Martin won the race, and lead the most laps and Jarrett
did not lead a lap finishing 11th, Mark would gain 55 points, leaving him
202 points back, with six race remaining.
Like I said, this is a small track that will play a big role
in the race for the series title.
Jump ahead to next week. Now, the Charlotte race is a
500-mile torture test. Long ... fast ... long ... physically demanding ...
long ... lots of pit stops ... long ... stuff breaks.
Oh, did I mention the race is long.
But I like Jarrett in this type of race on a track like
Charlotte. He drives with his head and his heart. This is the type of race
where you see the maturity of the new Dale Jarrett; not worried about
winning the race at the 300-mile mark, still concentrating on getting to the
400-mile mark, then assessing and assaulting. On the big tracks, Jarrett was
11th at Las Vegas, fifth at Atlanta, second in Texas and fifth at Charlotte
in May.
In those four races, all on virtual carbon-copy,
lack-of-imagination, but tough-on-car-and-driver tracks, Bobby Labonte has
scored 680 points, Jarrett 615 points and Martin 540 points (hurt by a 34th
place run at Texas). Labonte gained 65 points on Jarrett in the four races,
an average of 16.25 points per race. It's just not enough.
Projected finish for Jarrett at Charlotte? Third. Maximum
loss of points: 20. Minimum lead: 182 with five to go.
Now lets talk about Talladega, where Jarrett runs great, but
the biggest factor is just plain, old-fashion, luck. You can be leading one
minute and on your roof the next. Jarrett is the defending champion at
Talladega. He finished second there in the spring. He was third in April of
1998.
3, 2, 1...Blast-off!
Three straight top-three finishes. Projected finish for
Jarrett at Talladega? First. Minimum point gain: zero. Minimum point lead:
182 with four to go.
The last four races are at Rockingham, Phoenix, Homestead
and Atlanta. All are challenging tracks and difficult tests, but "The Final
Four" doesn't generated the fear and uncertainty of "The Next Three." Bad
things and bad luck can happen at any track in any race, but if you were
running for the Winston Cup championship with a healthy lead in the points
and you were given the option of skipping two of the remaining races, which
would you choose?
For me, it's a no-brainer: Martinsville and Talladega.
It's just the opposite for the guys chasing Jarrett. They
would probably prefer more tracks like those two. Sure, it's a great
challenge for them, but they need help catching Jarrett, and that kind of
help could come from the degree of difficulty at some of these tracks.
There are seven races left in the season. Now, when it comes to math, I
agree with the Jimmy Buffett philosophy. So, while the numbers may not add
up after the next three races, you could still have a pretty good idea who
the 1999 NASCAR Winston Cup Champion will be.
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ALSO SEE
Yocum: End of a dynasty?
Rudd expects cooler ride in Martinsville
Martinsville has long list of unlikely winners
Race for the Winston Cup
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