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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Raiders at Seahawks


Oakland offense vs. Seattle defense
RAIDERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 5
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 6
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 4
Sacks allowed 22
   
SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 24
vs. Pass 14
Total yds. allowed 17
Ints. 1
Sacks 5
Turnover differential -3
Head Coach Jon Gruden opened last week's game unconventionally -- with the pass. Look for Gruden to focus on the ground game early against the Seahawks, pounding the ball inside with new starting RB Tyrone Wheatley.

Last week, Wheatley didn't receive many carries until the fourth quarter, because the Raiders wanted to get Napoleon Kaufman untracked. Kaufman has been close to breaking some big runs the past couple of weeks, but his darting style will not pose many problems against the Seahawks' athletic front seven.

Whatever Gruden has done to light a fire under Wheatley is definitely working. Wheatley, who leads the team with 41 carries for 176 yards, might have a tougher time running inside against the Seahawks than he has in the first three games. Seattle's inside duo of Cortez Kennedy and Sam Adams are playing stronger than any pair of tackles in the league. Kennedy, who already has 20 tackles and 2½ sacks through three games, is far ahead of last year's pace (42 tackles, 2 sacks) and will give the Raiders' interior trio of LOG Steve Wisnewski, OC Barrett Robbins, and ROG Gennero KiNapoli fits.

One key for Seattle DEs and OLBs will be containing QB Rich Gannon, who has rushed 10 times for 95 yards the past two weeks. If the tackles can collapse the pocket, it will be up to DEs Michael Sinclair and Phillip Daniels to prevent Gannon from beating them with his feet.

The Raiders are having a very difficult time protecting Gannon, so look for offensive coordinator Bill Callahan to call a lot of three- and five-step drop sequences. Gannon was sacked four times Sunday by the Bears, and his mobility saved him from a couple of others. If Seattle can get consistent pressure on Gannon and prevent him taking deep drops, it will eliminate the deep threat of WR James Jett in the passing game.

After being held silent in the opener, Oakland has worked the tight end into the game plan the past two weeks (nine receptions, 138 yards and one touchdown). Ricky Dudley and surprising Jeremy Brigham, an excellent downfield blocking tandem in the run game, pose big matchup problems for Seattle, because both can stretch the field with their speed.

Seattle will likely cover Dudley with SS Darryl Williams, which leaves Brigham matched up on either LB Darrin Smith or nickel back Merton Hanks, who returned an interception for a touchdown last week. Smith will likely draw the assignment, because Hanks isn't physical enough to hold up against big TEs. Look for Dudley, who will lineup primarily in the slot, to run plenty of seam routes to pull MLB Anthony Simmons deep, which will open the underneath passing game for Brigham and leading receiver Tim Brown.

Seattle offense vs. Oakland defense
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 10
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 1
Sacks allowed 29
   
RAIDERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 3
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 24
Ints. 4
Sacks 2
Turnover differential 0
Mike Holmgren's West Coast system has held up just fine without Joey Galloway, but the Seahawks have yet to face a secondary as talented as the Raiders.

Seattle has had a different player step up and make plays every week but their athletically-challenged receiving corps will have problems separating from the blanket coverage of DCs Charles Woodson and Eric Allen. Although the return of Mike Pritchard helps, Seattle will be forced to execute a methodical, conservative game plan against an underrated Oakland defense.

Oakland is giving up a hefty 278 yards through the air per game but that figure is inflated, because teams cannot run the ball on them. Look for Seattle run plenty of screens and dump-offs. RB Ricky Watters has nine receptions through three games, and he might see that many passes on Sunday. Holmgren also likes to utilize his fullback in the passing game, so Oakland MLB Greg Biekert must recognize Reggie Brown coming out of the backfield on "circle" routes.

Seattle's offensive line has been inconsistent and must put forth its best effort against the Raiders' deep front four. The Seahawks were slow picking up a new system in the first two games, but some simplified blocking schemes should help.

The key to the Raiders' success (tied for second in league with 12 sacks) has been the seven-man front-line rotation that coordinator Willie Shaw can keep fresh. The athleticism of the front four enables the Raiders to execute the zone-blitz better than almost any other team in the league.

The zone blitz is one of the better schemes to defense the West Coast system, because it disrupts many of the short timing patterns on which the offense is predicated. Look for the Raiders defense to have great success against an inexperienced QB like Jon Kitna. Kitna is the only starting quarterback in the AFC without an interception, but that should change on Sunday.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category OAK SEA
Punt return avg. 22 2
Kickoff return avg. 26 25
Opp. punt return avg. 19 29
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 27 6
Time of possession 8 24
After two miserable performances, Holmgren demanded better production from the special teams, and he got it last week. Rookie PR Charlie Rogers' 94-yard touchdown return sparked the Seahawks, and it might translate into more opportunities on kickoffs. KOR Ahman Green is going down much too easily, but Holmgren doesn't want to pull the job from him just yet. Green's confidence is shaken because he is not contributing on offense, and Holmgren is hoping that he will draw something positive from the special-teams chores.

P Jeff Feagles rebounded as well, placing three punts inside the Steelers' 20. PK Todd Peterson also put a rough start behind him last week as he nailed 5-of-6 field goal attempts.

Peterson's counterpart, Oakland's Michael Husted, has nailed his last three attempts, and his booming kickoffs are rarely returnable. The Raiders must make some adjustments on their coverage units after being burned by Chicago's Glyn Milburn for a 93-yard kick return. With players like Travian Smith and K.D. Williams, the Raiders' cover teams are far too talented to give up big plays on a consistent basis.

Key matchups

  • Oakland reserve DLs vs. Seattle OL
    The Raiders can do a lot of different things defensively because of backup linemen Grady Jackson, Chuck Osborne and Tony Bryant play like starters. It will be tough for the Seahawks to withstand the barrage for four quarters.

  • Oakland DCs Charles Woodson and Eric Allen vs. Seattle WRs Sean Dawkins and Derrick Mayes
    Woodson was confident enough in he and Allen's cover abilities to request a switch to man coverage against Minnesota two weeks ago. The Raiders corners did the job against Randy Moss & Co. and shouldn't have any problems against the Seahawks.

  • Seattle RB Ricky Watters vs. Oakland defensive front seven
    After a horrible opener, Watters has bounced back with two productive performances. This might be his toughest test of the season. Watters must run hard and effective for Seattle score points.

    Oakland will win if...
  • They continue to run the football and control the clock. Tyrone Wheatley didn't do much for three quarters last week, but he ground out yardage when it counted -- the fourth quarter. The Raiders cannot afford to have Gannon lead them in rushing again this week.

  • They apply defensive pressure to Seahawk QB Jon Kitna. Kitna has looked very poised and is making good decisions, especially on third down. The only time Kitna has looked terribly out of rhythm was in the first half against Detroit. The Raiders must get after him the same way the Lions did.

  • They don't give up big plays in the kicking game. Seahawks rookie PR Charlie Rogers' 94-yard punt return last week demonstrated exactly why Holmgren saved a roster spot for him. Oakland's cover teams have not been particularly strong thus far, and they must make Seattle earn their points through solid execution on offense.

    Seattle will win if...

  • They stop the Raiders run game and force Oakland to throw the football. Seattle should be able to get enough pressure with their front four that they won't have to commit too many LBs or DBs on the blitz. If Wheatley and Kaufman are non-factors, the Raiders are in trouble.

  • Protect QB Kitna from a strong Raider pass rush. Kitna has played well, but he's still very inexperienced in Seattle's complex offensive system. If he is under any kind of pressure it will be almost impossible for Kitna to check past his second read.

  • Make big plays of their own in the kicking game. The Raiders are still waiting for ex-Bronco PR Darrien Gordon to do his thing. Oakland hasn't made anything happen on special teams this season, and a big play on the road against the Seahawks would really help.

    The War Room edge
    There will be a lot of motivating factors for both teams, but none greater than mentor-pupil relationship between Holmgren and Gruden. This game means a lot to both coaches for personal reasons, but the most important thing to both men is the fact that this is the first divisional game of the season. Oakland is playing tough football right now, but Holmgren will stress to his team all week the importance of protecting the home field within the division. Seattle will prevail in a tight, hard-fought slugfest.

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