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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Jets at Broncos


New York offense vs. Denver defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 18
Tot. Yds. 20
Scoring 23
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 26
   
BRONCOS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 20
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 15
Pts. allowed 27
Ints. 25
Sacks 14
Turnover differential -8
All things considered, the Jets did not put in a horrible performance last Sunday vs. the Redskins. This is an offense that has high expectations, but the fact is that the talent level is only marginal.

The Jets are without their starting quarterback and No. 2 receiver and are playing with an offensive line that was supposed to be protected by elite talent at the skill positions. Now that opponents are able to put more men in the box without concern for the passing game, the offensive line's deficiencies become exposed.

The Jets did establish a run game on Sunday and were able to spell Curtis Martin with newly acquired Bernie Parmalee. Knowing that Denver is going to attack Rick Mirer and force him to make quick decisions with the football, Bill Parcells will, more than ever, turn to the running game to set the pace early to hush the Mile High crowd. Denver's most serious concern may be against the run, where the defense has allowed an average of 154.7 yards per game.

The Broncos' undersized defensive line has been exposed over the course of the first few weeks and has been unable to protect its linebackers. Blockers are able to shed the defensive tackles and ends and get downfield to chip the linebackers and take them out of plays. Teams have been running downhill, which allows offensive linemen time to get a good angle, kick out the linebacker and give the running back room to make the cutback into the secondary.

The Jets have two inexperienced offensive guards that will be the key to their running game and possibly the entire production of the offense. If Kerry Jenkins and Randy Thomas can handle Trevor Pryce and Keith Traylor, it will allow for OC Kevin Mawae to release off the line and chase down a linebacker in pursuit of the play. Mawae is athletic enough that he becomes in essence an extra fullback if he is uncovered. He will get a lot of isolation blocks in the running game to clear out running lanes for Martin and Parmalee.

The Jets glaring weakness is their inability to throw the football with any success or consistency. There are a lot of variables that make up this problem, but the biggest concern is Rick Mirer's understanding of the offense and his ability to execute within the given parameters. The Jets have tried to roll him out, set him up in the pocket, run play-action off of the run and even empty the backfield to spread the field. The one constant is that defenses are coming after Mirer and have been successful doing so because of his inability to beat the blitz on a consistent basis.

This week will be an excellent opportunity for the Bronco defense to set a tone for the rest of the season. Denver has been stagnant in its approach and has shown little aggressiveness in coverage.

CB Dale Carter has been one of the biggest disappointments for the squad. Carter was brought in to play the roll of "shut-down" corner, allowing the rest of the secondary to roll coverage to Ray Crockett's side, or be able to help in run support. Carter has not given up many big plays, but he has been giving a huge pad to receivers, which is uncharacteristic, and allowing a lot of room underneath. Carter will line up against WR Dedric Ward, and this should be a matchup that the veteran corner dominates.

On the far side, Crocket will line head up with Keyshawn Johnson and make this a physical matchup underneath, with the comfort of knowing that his safeties are rolled over and will pick him up in the deep third. This will be very similar to a two-deep coverage, but only will be played on the right side of the defense.

The Jets realize that they began to move the ball last week when they found a way to get Keyshawn some more touches. Coach Parcells will scheme a way to get the ball in Johnson's hands anyway possible, so the biggest key to this game could be the secondaries ability to communicate and react to Johnson's motion and movement off the line of scrimmage.

Denver offense vs. New York defense
BRONCOS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 21
Pass 25
Tot. Yds. 27
Scoring 28
Int's allowed 18
Sacks allowed 15
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 17
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 26
Pts. allowed 25
Ints. 29
Sacks 30
Turnover differential -6
A lot can be said about the passing game's ineffectiveness causing the running lanes to become cluttered, and that the offensive line has had a hard time adjusting with Matt Lepsis at right tackle, but one thing is true: Terrell Davis is not running the ball as hard as previous years.

Davis has had to work for his yardage more than any other season, but when he clears the line of scrimmage he lacks the same burst that propelled him into so many defensive backfields for big gains. With that said, the Jets are going to pack it in tight and make sure that Davis has little room to operate.

Last Sunday, and as will be the case this Sunday, the Buccaneers sent linebackers, safeties and cornerbacks at Griese on sure passing downs. The rest of the time, they sent the house against Davis. Expect to see strong safety Steve Atwater close to the line of scrimmage, and Bill Belichick 3-4 defense will be shooting each gap with a different body.

The Broncos know what they have to do on offense to take some of the pressure off of Brian Griese but have not been able to execute. Griese has thrown longs of 19 and 21 yards in the last two games, which is hardly the vertical threat that would force defenses to back off their pressure.

This week, however, the Broncos draw favorable matchups on receivers Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith and need to take advantage of the size difference. CB Ray Mickens, in particular, has had trouble matching up with bigger receivers, as witnessed last week with two costly pass interference penalties.

The Jets are in a compromising situation in the secondary because of TE Shannon Sharpe's ability to stretch the defense and force coverage from the free safety. New York has been able to roll coverage back and forth to help out its corners in the deep third. With Sharpe streaking down the seams, Mickens and Aaron Glenn are going to be forced into a lot of man-to-man situations. The only way to exploit these matchups will be to spread the field vertically and go up top early in the game. This will drive the linebackers back into coverage and possibly give Griese some time in the pocket to make his reads downfield.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NYJ DEN
Punt return avg. 21 24
Kickoff return avg. 9 6
Opp. punt return avg. 26 10
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 19 16
Time of possession 22 28
The Jets special teams unit has been one of the team's lone bright spots. P Tom Tupa is one of the best in the business and continues to prove it every week. He averaged 48.0-yards per punt and landed his only opportunity of the day inside the 20. Kevin Williams sparked the troops with an 87-yard kickoff return. The Jets return teams have been outstanding and continue to put the offense in good field position. PK John Hall was 2-for-2 and kept the Jets in the game in the fourth quarter.

Denver's punter, Tom Rouen, has seen his role increase ten-fold from a season ago. Rouen averaged 46.7 yards per punt on seven attempts last Sunday and kept the ball out of Denver territory for most of the game. Rookie Chris Watson has been consistent, and with time should become a top return man in this league.

Key matchups

  • New York OGs Kerry Jenkins and Randy Thomas vs. Denver DTs Keith Traylor and Trevor Pryce
    The two inexperienced guards may struggle vs. one of the top defensive tackle tandems in the NFL. If Kevin Mawae is forced to help with the double team, rookie MLB Al Wilson will have a big day blitzing the A and B gaps.

  • Denver WRs Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey vs. New York DCs Ray Mickens and Aaron Glenn
    The Jets' undersized corners will lock up on many downs in man-to-man coverage against Denvers explosive receivers, daring Brian Griese to exploit the matchups. Ray Mickens has to bounce back after committing two costly interference penalties last week against the Redskins.

  • Denver ROT Matt Lepsis vs. New York LOLB Mo Lewis
    The Jets will target the inexperienced offensive tackle and force him to recognize and pick up the blitzing linebacker off the edge.

    New York will win if...

  • The Jets need to work Dedric Ward deep on crossing routes that will force the Bronco secondary to cover the elusive and undersized receiver across the field.

  • The Jets need to simplify the passing game and get the ball to Keyshawn Johnson on quick hits and underneath crossing routes. Johnson is the Jets top offensive playmaker but has been neutralized ever since Rick Mirer has taken over the starting quarterback job.

  • New York knows that the Broncos strength is still in the running game, so the defense will have to stack eight men in the box and attack Terrell Davis, who has had trouble breaking tackles this season with so many defenders concentrated on stopping the run.

    Denver will win if...

  • The Broncos need better play out of CB Dale Carter. Denver is leaving him on an island with no help underneath, and receivers have been productive on comeback and crossing routes, because Carter has been giving lots of space in his coverage.

  • Denver needs to run more zone blitzes in the middle of the defense where they have been most vulnerable in the first few weeks of the '99 season.

  • Teams have been most effective disrupting the Jets' offense by blitzing Rick Mirer and forcing him to make quick reads. Mirer still does not have a complete grasp of the Jets offensive scheme, and the Broncos should be able to force him into mistakes by pressuring him into making "hot reads."

    The War Room edge
    This contest features two teams with Super Bowl aspirations heading into the season, but both clubs have stumbled out of the gate for a combined record of 0-6. The Jets will look to pressure the Broncos' first-year starter at quarterback, but Denver will finally get the balanced attack offensively that it has been looking for since announcing Brian Griese as the starting quarterback.

    With Rick Mirer at the helm and the injury to WR Wayne Chrebet, the Jets have too many obstacles to overcome on offense. The Broncos also have the built-in advantage of playing the Jets at Mile High Stadium and should be able to translate the emotion of the game into the first win of the season.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
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