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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Chiefs at Chargers

The War Room

Kansas City offense vs. San Diego defense

CHIEFS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 6

Pass 14

Tot. Yds. 8

Scoring 11

Int's allowed 12

Sacks allowed 4

CHARGERS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 2

vs. Pass 2

Total yds. allowed 20

Pts. allowed 9

Ints. 20

Sacks 29

Turnover differential +3

When RB Bam Morris went down with a hamstring injury Sunday, the Chiefs were forced to use No. 3 and No. 4 running backs Donnell Bennett and Rashaan Shehee. The Chiefs were actually more effective with their quicker backs in the lineup and got better production from the running game when Morris went out.

Bennett and Shehee sparked the offense, picking up big chunks of yardage, but against the Chargers on Sunday Kansas City is going to have a tough time running the football. San Diego owns the NFL's longest streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher (21 games), but the problem for the Chargers is that they have won just seven of those games.

The Chiefs are going to need to be well prepared and get excellent play from their interior offensive line. Guards Jeff Smith and Will Shields will matchup with run-stuffing DTs John Parrella and Norman Hand and will be forced to handle those matchups on an individual basis without help from OC Tim Grunhard. Grunhard must be free to handle the blitz from ILBs Junior Seau and Eric Hill, two players that love to come on the blitz and feed on centers that are working the double team.

Kansas City will try to establish a run game in order to create defensive flow to the ball when the team elects to run play-action. In order to score points on the stingy Charger defense, the Chiefs need to force San Diego to respect the running attack and commit the front seven to playing the run.

If successful, Kansas City will have just a few opportunities to run play-action off the inside run game and roll out QB Elvis Grbac, where he is able to take advantage of his vertical receivers in man-to-man coverage. The Chargers are so effective at stopping the run that they are able to drop linebackers in coverage and use safeties as help in the deep third or against a streaking tight end such as Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez.

Last week, the Colts were most effective throwing the ball against the Chargers when they spread the field and forced the linebackers to drop into coverage, which gave Peyton Manning time in the pocket to find an open receiver. The Chargers' secondary is the weakness of this unit and can be exploited when teams expand the field horizontally and vertically.

WRs Andre Rison and Derrick Alexander draw favorable matchups against CBs Charles Dimry and Terrance Shaw, who are undersized and too slow to cover Rison and Alexander downfield. If Gonzalez can come free off the line of scrimmage and force coverage from one of the safeties, it will force San Diego into man-to-man coverage with one of the two receivers. The Chiefs will not get too many opportunities or much time to exploit the matchups, so when things open up and Grbac has time to throw, he needs to be on target and convert on the big plays.

San Diego offense vs. Kansas City defense

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 20

Pass 24

Tot. Yds. 25

Scoring 8

Int's allowed 5

Sacks allowed 17

CHIEFS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 16

vs. Pass 16

Total yds. allowed 16

Pts. allowed 8

Ints. 13

Sacks 16

Turnover differential +4

The Chargers are limited in what they can do offensively because of their personnel, but at some point offensive coordinator George Chryst needs to open things up and allow this offense to make some plays. The thinking behind the Chargers offensive scheme is to hold onto the football as long as possible, make very few mistakes and capitalize on the having the league's top defense. In theory this is a strong game plan that should keep the marginally talented Chargers in a lot of games, but realistically there needs to be more production on offense if the club is going to challenge in the AFC West.

The Chiefs love to attack the middle of offensive lines, where their big, physical defensive tackles take up a lot of space and hold ground. San Diego will try to neutralize the middle blitz by running the ball up the gut and trying to catch the linebackers out of position. Also, when watching film from the Chiefs' first three games, San Diego should see some holes open up backside. Means is not a real agile back, but his vision is good, and he has the capability of changing direction and finding the backside running lane.

Expect to see the Chiefs stack eight men in the box and focus on stuffing the run and pressuring QB Jim Harbaugh into making quick decisions. Harbaugh is a veteran quarterback who knows how to pick up the "hot read" and where to go with the ball when under pressure, but the question is how in tune the receivers will be to Harbaugh's recognition. The Chargers are also known for being extremely low-risk in their passing game and love to work the short to intermediate routes. TE Charlie Jones was the leading receiver last week with 5 catches for 45 yards, which shows how ineffective the vertical game has been.

The Chiefs will be packed in close to the line of scrimmage, daring the Chargers to go up top. It seems like a gamble for Kansas City to leave its corners alone in coverage, but the Chiefs are confident the trio of Chris Dishman, James Hasty and Eric Warfield can shut down most any receiving corps in the AFC and plan to do just that on Sunday.

Special teams

NFL RANK

Category KC SD

Punt return avg. 7 17

Kickoff return avg. 22 30

Opp. punt return avg. 5 12

Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 29

Time of possession 20 6

Chiefs PK Pete Stoyanovich made his only FG attempt Sunday, a crucial 51-yard kick. P Daniel Pope has been tremendous for the Chiefs and added to his success with a 45.0 average, including three placements inside the 20. Tamarick Vanover is still a flashy return man and gives the Chiefs a comfort level on special teams.

Chargers punter Darren Bennett's average (38.4) was deceiving on Sunday. Bennett was 3-for-3 placing the ball inside the 20 and put the Colts in terrible field position all afternoon. Kenny Bynum has been solid for the Chargers but doesn't provide much flash as a return man. The Chargers have done a respectable job covering kicks and have yet to allow a big return.

Key matchups

San Diego RG Raleigh Roundtree vs. Kansas City LDT Chester McGlockton
If Roundtree is unable to handle the strength and power of McGlockton, it will force the Chargers to double-team the defensive tackle with OC Roman Fortin, which allows the Chiefs to bring the blitz up the middle.

Kansas City's interior offensive line vs. San Diego ILBs Eric Hill and Junior Seau
DTs Norman Hand and John Parrella cause a lot of trouble in the middle, which means OC Tim Grunhard will have to do a good job of helping his offensive guards as well as being aware of the inside blitz by Junior Seau and Eric Hill.

Kansas City TE Tony Gonzalez vs. San Diego FS Michael Dumas
Gonzalez will stretch the defensive secondary and force coverage from FS Michael Dumas. With Dumas locked on to Gonzalez in passing situations, the Chargers defensive corners will be forced into more one-on-one situations vs. the Chiefs wide receivers.

Kansas City will win if...

Because of the attention their defensive tackles get, the Chiefs are going to have to take advantage of some mismatches in the trenches by blitzing up the middle and forcing the Chargers running backs to stay home in pass protection.

The Chiefs need to pressure the Chargers secondary by getting TE Tony Gonzalez down the seams, forcing them to use a safety in coverage.

The Chiefs will have trouble running the football against the NFL's top rush defense. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye needs to run play-action and roll Elvis Grbac out of the pocket where he sees the field better and should be able to catch the Chargers overpursuing.

San Diego will win if...

The Chargers, confident they can shut down Kansas City's marginal rushing attack, will need to flush QB Elvis Grbac out of the pocket and dare him to beat them by throwing the ball on the run.

The Chargers secondary will need to help out CB Torrance Shaw in the deep third. Small sprained his ankle last week and will draw coverage against deep threat WR Andre Rison.

The Chargers need to stretch the defense with their wide receivers off the play-action. The Chiefs will expect San Diego to throw the ball underneath all afternoon, which will allow the Chargers receivers to pick their spots to run the deep route.

The War Room edge
Kansas City faces the daunting task of taking on the league's top run defense in San Diego. The Chargers should be able to contain the Chiefs offense and keep this contest close, but Kansas City's defense will be too much for the Chargers' stagnant offense.

QB Elvis Grbac will not put up career numbers but should be able to stretch the defense by running play-action off the run game and exploiting some man-to-man matchups on his deep threat receivers. Do not expect many offensive fireworks or many points on the scoreboard, but the Chiefs should be able to win this low scoring game with excellent defense and opportunistic play on offense.

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