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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Bills at Dolphins

The War Room

Buffalo offense vs. Miami defense

BILLS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 2

Pass 15

Tot. Yds. 10

Scoring 17

Int's allowed 15

Sacks allowed 13

DOLPHINS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 9

vs. Pass 13

Total yds. allowed 7

Pts. allowed 11

Ints. 10

Sacks 27

Turnover differential -1

The Bills have been most successful offensively when spreading the field with their three wide receivers sets. This has not only opened up the passing game and allowed Doug Flutie to make plays on the run, but it has also widened the running lanes for Antowain Smith and Jonathan Linton. The emergence of Linton as a dependable runner gives the Bills offense a spark off the bench and keeps Smith's legs fresh late in the game. The challenge this week will be to run on a Miami defense with excellent speed and cover corners that allow them play eight men in the box.

For Buffalo, the key is to neutralize the Dolphins defensive line without getting out of the game plan. Miami has the potential to dominate this matchup in the trenches and dictate the tone of the entire game. The Bills have been having problems on the right side with guard Dusty Ziegler subbing for Joe Panos (neck injury) and second-year man Robert Hicks showing his inexperience at the tackle position. In addition, left tackle John Fina is coming under scrutiny. That's not good against one of the deepest, most talented lines in the league. Left tackle Tim Bowens vs. Ziegler is potentially an ugly matchup for the Bills, and Hicks trying to stop left end Trace Armstrong in pass-rush downs could be similar.

To counter the Dolphins' tight man-to-man coverage from corners Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison, Buffalo will run a lot of single-back sets with either four receivers split out, or three receivers with TE Jay Riemersma in motion to draw coverage outside the hash marks. By spreading the field, the Bills will force Miami to use more nickel personnel and drop a linebacker or two in coverage underneath. With the field stretched horizontally and vertically, the offensive line will have the numbers advantage that should allow Flutie more time to roll outside the pocket and also open up more run lanes for Smith and Linton.

Jimmy Johnson has not been known for his patience, so do not expect the defense to sit back and allow Buffalo to set the tempo. Miami will test Flutie and his receivers by blitzing both up the middle and from the edges. Miami is convinced that Flutie has trouble making quick blitz reads because his size prohibits him from looking over the initial line of scrimmage and gives him limited throwing lanes to work with. Miami will pressure Flutie up the middle and keep contain on the perimeter in order to keep the athletic quarterback in the pocket and force him to make the throws as a drop back passer.

Miami offense vs. Buffalo defense

DOLPHINS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 19

Pass 16

Tot. Yds. 15

Scoring 5

Int's allowed 10

Sacks allowed 13

BILLS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 7

vs. Pass 11

Total yds. allowed 4

Pts. allowed 3

Ints. 24

Sacks 26

Turnover differential -3

The running game is off to a slow start, averaging only 3.0 yards per carry. However, Miami has run the ball an average of 32 times per game, which is a testament to not only how determined Jimmy Johnson is to being a run-oriented football team, but also to how effective the passing game has been on third-down situations.

The Dolphins are going to test Buffalo's front seven and try find a way to neutralize the play of NT Ted Washington and DE Bruce Smith. The Dolphins have moved Kevin Gogan from the right side to left guard, where he will be a target from the start.

The Bills have been extremely successful defensively when Bruce Smith has either lined up on the guard or run a lot of stunts that will match him up with a slower and usually smaller offensive guard. Gogan has said numerous times that he's not completely comfortable making the switch from the right side to the left, where he hasn't played regularly since 1991.

Gogan is a mauling type offensive guard known for his toughness and physical play, but against Smith he is overmatched and will have trouble with Smith's quickness. Buffalo will try to accentuate this matchup by running a lot of inside blitz packages that will force OC Tim Ruddy to pick up the linebacker and leave his offensive guards with straight, man-to-man blocking assignments.

The Dolphins are going to need their running backs to do a better job picking up the blitz. Rookies J.J. Johnson and Cecil Collins may see less time than usual on third downs and will give way to the blocking ability of Rob Konrad and experience of Karim Abdul-jabbar. Marino is known for his lightning fast delivery, and he rarely gets sacked, but the timing routes that Miami loves to run get thrown off by a consistent pass rush.

The one major difference in the passing game from years past has been the involvement of tight end Troy Drayton. A big part of the offense through the first two weeks, Drayton has caught seven passes for 71 yards and one touchdown. He has been a target on nine of Marino's 58 passes this season.

With this outlet option in the passing game, Marino is able to get rid of the ball quicker against the blitz and doesn't always have to rely on his receivers to break away from the man-to-man coverage off the line of scrimmage.

The Miami receiving corps has been exactly as advertised, and some of that has to do with the fact that they have not had to be the focal point of the offense. Tony Martin's ability to stretch defenses and take coverage off the rest of the receivers has been the biggest difference. He has six catches for 133 yards, a 22.2 average in the first two games of the season. As a result, fellow starter O.J. McDuffie (eight catches, 139 yards, one TD) and tight end Drayton (seven catches, 71 yards, one TD) are benefiting.

The Bills are going to matchup Thomas Smith in a lot of single coverage vs. Martin, which will allow the secondary to run a lot of zone coverage on the other two-thirds of the field. McDuffie is an excellent route runner and makes a lot of plays underneath. Cornerback Ken Irvin will press him hard at the line of scrimmage and force him to the inside where there will be help from one of the safeties in coverage.

Special teams

NFL RANK

Category BUF MIA

Punt return avg. 3 25

Kickoff return avg. 2 5

Opp. punt return avg. 8 28

Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 8 18

Time of possession 7 16

Buffalo PK Steve Christie was most of the offense on Sunday, connecting on kicks from 24, 29, 19 and 36. Do not let P Chris Mohr's average fool you into believing he had a poor performance. Mohr was deadly accurate and landed three punts inside the 20, forcing the Eagles to drive the length of the field just about every time they had the ball. The Bills' return game has been a bit of a disappointment. Peerless Price has not emerged as the return specialist the team had hoped for when drafting him, but he has also had to split duties with Kevin Williams.

With rookie punter Brent Bartholomew out for the season, the Dolphins have signed Tom Hutton to take over the duties. Hutton has a career 42.4 yard average, and though he doesn't have a big leg, he is consistent and reliable. PK Olindo Mare has been excellent, connecting on 5-of-6 with a long of 51 yards.

Key matchups

Buffalo WRs Eric Moulds and Andre Reed vs. Miami DCs Terrell Buckley and Sam Madison
If Miami's "shut-down" corners can take Moulds and Reed out of the game, the Dolphins can get more run support from their safeties and give more attention to TE Jay Riemersma.

Miami LT Richmond Webb vs. Buffalo DE Bruce Smith
This is a marquee matchup between two of the best in the league at their positions. However, we saw Smith do a lot of inside stunt work last week and create inside pressure. If Smith again uses this stunt scheme to get upfield, Webb will need to pick up the outside linebacker who will be coming on the blitz.

Buffalo FB Sam Gash vs. Miami MLB Zach Thomas
Thomas is an active linebacker who makes plays on the move. Gash needs to take good angles and get in position in order to make the isolation block and take Thomas out of the play.

Buffalo will win if...

The Bills need to be more productive in the red zone and take advantage when the defense puts them in good field position. Last week, Buffalo had to settle for four field goals when they had first-and-10 opportunities in the red zone.

In the defense's 3-4 scheme, the middle linebackers need to get great pressure from the blitz and take advantage of the surge created from NT Ted Washington and DE Bruce Smith, who has been effective on inside stunts and lining up over the guard.

The offense needs to spread the field with three-receiver sets and continue to give QB Doug Flutie throwing lanes and room tuck the ball and take it up the field.

Miami will win if...

The corners need to shut down the Bills receivers and allow more people to play close to the line, preventing Doug Flutie from getting outside and making plays with his athleticism.

The Dolphins are going to need their inexperienced running backs to pick up the blitzing linebackers in the middle and give Marino time to throw.

Once again, the Dolphins need to establish a running game and will have to do it against a stingy 3-4 defense that loves to blitz and create a disruption up the middle.

The War Room edge
This is a huge early-season AFC East conference battle in Miami. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week and should be well rested and prepared. The Bills are a talented football team with weapons on both sides of the ball but will be overmatched on the road. Miami will keep QB Doug Flutie in check with great team speed on defense. The Dolphins will look to establish a running game early on but will win the game in the fourth quarter on the arm of Dan Marino.

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