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Thursday, September 30
War Room: Ravens at Falcons


Baltimore offense vs. Atlanta defense
RAVENS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 12
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 25
Int's allowed 30
Sacks allowed 25
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 22
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 13
Ints. 23
Sacks 31
Turnover differential -8
The Falcons hobble into this game with a 0-3 record and a very thin defensive line.

Atlanta's normally stacked front four will be forced to take on Ravens RB Errict Rhett without the services of starting RDT Shane Dronett and top reserve Ed Jasper. Although he should play, LDT Travis Hall had surgery on his left thumb this week and he could have trouble using his hands and disengaging from blockers. The rash of injuries will force Defensive Coordinator Rich Brooks to get production from journeyman Shawn Swayda and ex-practice squad guy Ben Huff.

Baltimore's offensive line has played surprisingly well thus far, especially the right side, where ROG Jeff Blackshear and ex-Bronco ROT Harry Swayne have done a great job of wearing down defenses in the second half. Rhett, who has two-straight 100-yard games, has run hard the past two weeks behind FB Charles Evans.

Atlanta's defense, especially the linebacking corps, played lethargic football last week. Starting OLB Henri Crockett and Keith Brooking, along with nickel backer Craig Sauer, will be asked to do a lot in coverage on Sunday because the Ravens' passing game is heavy with 10-15 yard intermediate routes.

QB Stoney Case (49.5 rating) hasn't been much better than Scott Mitchell (31.5) in the passing game, but he does bring an improvisational element to this offense that was missing the first two games. Case still needs to learn not to force the ball into coverage, but he does keep the chains moving with his legs (12 att., 65 yds., 2 TD).

What the Ravens lack offensively is a big WR or receiving TE that can stretch the defense and make plays down the middle of the field. Because Case doesn't have the arm to take advantage of WR Jermaine Lewis' deep speed, the Ravens passing game is focused on two players that have been out of the league at times the past couple of years -- Qadry Ismail and Justin Armour. Falcon DCs Ronnie Bradford and Ray Buchanan were scorched repeatedly last week by the Rams but they should be able to shut down Ismail and Armour in man coverage.

The Falcons' defensive problems stem from the fact that they have a league-low two sacks in three games. If they Bradford and Buchanan can handle their man coverage assignments, look for the Falcons to blitz Case all afternoon.

Atlanta offense vs. Baltimore defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 26
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 22
Sacks allowed 21
   
RAVENS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 14
Total yds. allowed 8
Ints. 16
Sacks 6
Turnover differential -4
The loss RB Jamal Anderson and the questionable status of QB Chris Chandler have left this offense in disarray. Anderson's replacement, Byron Hanspard, had little running room last Sunday against the Rams, and he gained just 50 yards on 17 carries (2.9 avg.).

The key for Atlanta will be early success in the passing game. Although they don't necessarily have to hit on big plays, the Falcons must at least be efficient in the short passing game to prevent the Ravens' athletic front seven from gearing up for the run. The Falcons will continue to rotate their OGs in effort to keep the line fresh.

Look for backup RB Ken Oxendine to get more carries this week. The more Oxendine hammers the inside, the better success Hanspard should have getting to the corner.

The Browns had some success attacking DTs Larry Webster, Lionel Dalton, and Martin Chase, who couldn't seem to keep MLB Ray Lewis uncovered to make plays. A big key for the Ravens on Sunday will be the play of their inside tandem, who must step up in place of injured Tony Siragusa.

Whether the Falcons go with Chandler or Tony Graziani at quarterback, the Ravens' defense will prepare the same either way. Baltimore's attacking defense will get after the quarterback, with DEs Michael McCrary and Rob Burnett applying relentless pressure off the edge.

Without a true deep threat, it's hard to imagine the Falcons getting much done through the air against the Ravens' gambling secondary. The team is encouraging young DCs Chris McAlister and Duane Starks to play a lot of press coverage at the line of scrimmage, and SS Rod Woodson provides great over-the-top help.

The key matchup for both sides will be Atlanta TE O.J. Santiago vs. Baltimore OLB Jamie Sharper. Sharper, who is off to the best start of his career, uses his hands extremely well, which is a key against a big, athletic tight end like Santiago.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ATL BAL
Punt return avg. 10 4
Kickoff return avg. 3 17
Opp. punt return avg. 16 3
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 17 30
Time of possession 27 26
When Jamal Anderson went down, the team signed former Panthers RB Winslow Oliver for added depth in the backfield. But his contributions on special teams are what the team is truly looking for.

RS Tim Dwight's increased role on offense and a sore hamstring have contributed to his struggles on returns after a strong rookie year. Look for Oliver, who has averaged more than 24 yards on six kickoff returns, to supplant Dwight on punts as well as kicks.

The Falcons' kicking game is suffering through a horrible slump. PK Morten Anderson has inexplicably missed all three of his field goal attempts, and P Dan Stryzinski's longest punt thus far has been 49 yards.

Baltimore KOR Cory Harris continues to be among the league leaders with a 27.0 average, while PR Jermaine Lewis (9.9 avg.) has been far too indecisive. P Kyle Richardson is concentrating more on his accuracy and still continues to boom his punts. PK Matt Stover has connected on all four of his attempts from inside 50 yards but he is 0-for-2 from beyond that mark.

Key matchups

  • Falcon defensive front four vs. Baltimore OL
    The best unit left on this Falcons team may be their defensive front four, and they must put pressure on QB Stoney Case and control the line of scrimmage to give the Falcons a chance.

  • Falcon OT Bob Whitfield vs. Baltimore DE Michael McCrary
    These are two of the best players in the NFL at their positions, and McCrary is starting to come on after a slow start. If Whitfield doesn't control him, it could be a miserable day for the Atlanta QBs.

  • Atlanta MLB Jessie Tuggle vs. Baltimore RB Errict Rhett
    The Ravens seem to have found a run game with Rhett, and Tuggle needs to key the Atlanta defense that steps up and stuffs the run and forces QB Stoney Case to beat them.

    Baltimore will win if...

  • They can roll QB Stoney Case out of the pocket and create plays in the passing game. Case is starting because he is more mobile than Scott Mitchell, and if he can get outside the pocket and break down defenses and create plays, it gives the Ravens offense a chance to open things up a little bit.

  • They come after the Atlanta QB (probably Tony Graziani). With Jamal Anderson out of the game, Atlanta has very few offensive weapons, and getting to the QB should be fairly easy without a lot of concern for the run game.

  • They can control the Falcons pass rush. If the Baltimore OL holds up and gives Case time to let the passing game open up, they will have a lot of matchups in their favor.

    Atlanta will win if...

  • The Falcon defense contains QB Stoney Case. Atlanta must not have any defensive breakdowns by allowing Case to scramble. They must keep him in the pocket and force him to go vertical in the passing game.

  • They can get RB Byron Hanspard untracked in the run game. With problems at QB (a banged up Chris Chandler) and the loss of Jamal Anderson, the Falcons must find a run game or they will continue to be a one-dimensional team and won't have anybody left at QB by the end of the season.

  • They can make Baltimore pay for putting eight in the box on defense. If Chris Chandler is out, Baltimore will bring the kitchen sink on defense, and the Falcons must make some plays in the vertical passing game to force them to sit back and play more honest.

    The War Room edge
    This is a tough game to predict the outcome, as both of these teams are struggling, especially on offense. Atlanta has very few weapons, but they still have a lot of players with pride, and this seems to be a perfect week to win an ugly defensive game at home. Not so fast. Both teams will struggle to score points but Baltimore's dominant front seven will force some Falcon turnovers and give their offense better field position. The Ravens steal one on the road.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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