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Tuesday, January 11
War Room: Dolphins at Jaguars


Miami offense vs. Jacksonville defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 21
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 37
   
JAGUARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 7
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 5
# of Ints. 19
# of Sacks 57
Turnover differential +12
Balance on offense is the reason that the Dolphins are alive for another week. Last week was the first time in seven games that the Dolphins ran the ball (38) more times than they threw (31). The system is very easy to understand and agree with, but extremely difficult to put into practice.

Jimmy Johnson has been working with this team since he got to Miami to convert the offense into a run-oriented unit. The problem, however, besides the fact that the personnel has not been conducive, has been that Dan Marino is QB and it is extremely difficult to force such a legend into a caretaker role. But with Marino struggling mightily over the course of the season, it became evident that the team needs to run the ball to stay in game, especially with such a strong defense with which to play the field position game.

The key for the Miami offense is going to be the matchup game. The Dolphins were conservative last week in their play calling, but showed a lot of different sets to force the Seahawks to get out of base formation and blitz less.

This week, that game plan is going to be even more crucial against the Jaguar zone blitz that is equipped and capable of putting heavy pressure on Marino. Miami is again going to have to run a lot of four- and five-receiver sets to keep Jacksonville from loading up close to the line of scrimmage.

J.J. Johnson needs to be the workhorse if the Dolphins are going to slow down the tempo of the game. Johnson only rushed for 86-yards last week, but he carried the ball 27 times, which allowed Miami to win the time of possession battle by almost ten minutes.

The Jaguars aggressive defensive scheme is going to cause a lot of problems for Miami in the passing game because of their ability to get to the quarterback. Marino is an experienced veteran who is playing in his 17th postseason game, but he has shown a tendency to force a lot of throws into coverage when he is under pressure.

The Jaguars led the league during the regular season with 57 sacks, and ranked 5th in pass defense, allowing 203.9 yards per game. The play of their secondary has been solid, but the pass rush is the primary reason for their success. CB's Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant are left on an island a lot in coverage because of the aggressive scheme, which means that Jacksonville is going to have to get to Marino if they are to shut down the Miami passing game.

The Jaguars must get to Marino. The entire Jaguar defensive system is predicated on pressure, which means that CB's Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant will be left in a lot of man-to-man situations on Miami's receivers. Even though Marino is not at the top of his game, he still have enough left in his arm, and is crafty enough to get his receivers the ball against single man coverage on the outside.

The one advantage the Dolphins have in this matchup is that Bryant missed practice last week with a strained hamstring, and he will play less than 100%. Bryant has been outstanding in his rookie season in coverage, but there is a huge drop off when Dave Thomas is forced into the game. Thomas is likely going to have to play more than usual because of the four- and five-receiver sets that the Dolphins will use, which means that Miami should have a lot of favorable matchups to work with in the passing game if Marino has time to throw.

Jacksonville offense vs. Miami defense
JAGUARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 13
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 6
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 36
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 8
vs. Pass 4
Total yds. allowed 4
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential -6
The Jaguars are in a lot more trouble than most people think on offense because of the loss of OT Tony Boselli and the fact that OT Leon Searcy is playing with a sprained ankle.

Jacksonville's offense is predicated on the strength of their offensive line. A huge matchup to watch in this game is at the left tackle position, where Ben Coleman will move from his usual guard spot to the outside where he will line head up on speed-rush defensive end Jason Taylor. Coleman is going to fill in, but his task will be steep, taking on one of the faster defensive ends in the league. Coleman should be able to handle himself in most run situations versus the undersized Taylor, but in pass protection he is going to have a lot of problems with Taylor's speed and quickness, which means the Jags may be forced to give him help.

Mark Brunell is also hobbled by a knee injury, which means that he is less likely to be able to avoid the rush coming from the outside. Expect the Jaguars to utilize a quick-hitting passing game early on in the game in order to avoid giving up the big play. WR's Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are two of the top receivers in the league, but they will be faced with a lot of double teams to take them out of the game.

The two biggest keys are the matchups on the outside receivers and Jacksonville's ability to get the ball to TE Kyle Brady. Sam Madison is going to match up in single-man coverage, and should be able to keep Smith in check. The Dolphins will still be forced to play cloud coverage to Madison's side, but they will be able to roll coverage frequently to Terrell Buckley's/Patrick Surtain's side in order to avoid giving up the big play downfield to McCardell.

With so much emphasis on the wideouts, and assuming that the Dolphins will be able to get pressure on Brunell, Jacksonville is going to need a big game out of the tight end position. Brady and Jones will have a lot of room to work in the seams, but they have been unable to exploit double coverage on the outside for most of the season.

Given the many question marks in the passing game, Jacksonville's running attack will be critical. Fred Taylor and James Stewart are both finally healthy, and even though Taylor will take the majority of snaps, Stewart will be able to spell Taylor and keep him fresh well into the fourth quarter.

Miami allows 92.2 yards per game on the ground, but their run defense has tailed off considerably since they have been forced to play less aggressive against the run. With the Dolphins having to double cover Jacksonville's receiving corps, Miami is not going to be able to count on their safeties in run support. This could be the difference in the game, as the Jaguars have shown an ability to exploit teams that back off into coverage.

The one concern is obviously at the offensive tackle position, so look for the Jaguars to attack Miami between the tackles. Against Taylor, who does such an excellent job of changing direction, the Dolphins are going to need to do an excellent job up front on defense.

The onus on defense versus the run is going to come at the defensive tackle position, where Tim Bowens and Daryl Gardener need to be able to clog the middle and protect MLB Zach Thomas. Thomas is one of the more active middle linebackers in the NFL and is counted on by this defensive scheme to be the playmaker against the run. If the Jaguars are able to get out and reach Thomas, Miami is in for a long day trying to stop Fred Taylor & Co.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIA JAC
Punt return avg. 12 10
Kickoff return avg. 4 25
Opp. punt return avg. 20 6
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 20 26
Time of possession 7 5
Tom Hutton has really come on as the team's punter in the last two games. Hutton averaged 41.3 yards on eight punts and pinned the ball inside the Seahawk twenty six times last week. The team is confident heading into Jacksonville with the league's top field goal kicker in Olindo Mare, who nailed 39-of-46 on the season with a long of 54. The Dolphins are also strong as a return team with Brock Marion averaging 24.6 per kickoff return and Nate Jacquet averaging 11.8 yards per punt return. The Jaguars head into the playoffs with strong special teams play at just about every position, starting with Mike Hollis who connected on 31-of-38 attempts in the regular season. Bryan Barker did not have a great punt average (41.8), but his directional punting was outstanding, landing 32-of-78 attempts inside the opponents' twenty-yard line.

Key matchups
  • Miami WR O.J. McDuffie vs. Jacksonville CB Fernando Bryant
    This is an interesting matchup because if features two outstanding athletes with very different styles. McDuffie is more of a possession, underneath receiver with excellent technique and route-running skills, while Bryant is an inexperienced cover corner with great raw talent and instincts. Bryant likes to gamble frequently in coverage, so it will be interesting to see if McDuffie takes what is given to him downfield. The more Bryant chances takes, the more dangerous this matchup becomes for the Titans.

  • Miami OT Richmond Webb vs. Jacksonville DE Tony Brackens
    The marquee matchup of the game comes in the trenches between these two standouts at their respective positions. Webb is still an outstanding offensive tackle, but it is clear that some of his quickness is eluding him. Subsequently, Brackens proved to be one of the top pass rushers in the league this season with 12 sacks, but he is coming off a knee injury and may not have the quickness off the ball that makes him so dominant.

  • Jacksonville OT Ben Coleman vs. Miami DE Jason Taylor
    This matchup poses the biggest problem to the Jaguars. With Tony Boselli out for the entire postseason, the Jags are in trouble at the left offensive tackle position. Ben Coleman is going to fill in, but he will have a steep task taking on one of the faster defensive ends in the league. Coleman should be able to handle himself in most run situations versus the undersized Taylor, but in pass protection he may run into problems with Taylor's speed and quickness, which means the Jags may be forced to give him help.

    Miami will win if...
  • J.J. Johnson is a 100-yard rusher. The Dolphins finally proved that they can run the football to win last week against the Seahawks, when they rushed for 108 yards and dominated time of possession. Miami needs to get a similar performance from the offensive line and Johnson in order to stay in this game on the road against a Jacksonville team that led the league in regular season sacks with 57.

  • DT's Daryl Gardener and Tim Bowens protect MLB Zach Thomas. Against a running back with such great change of direction, the Dolphins need to do an excellent job up front on defense. Zach Thomas is one of the more active middle linebackers in the NFL and is counted on to be the playmaker against the run. If the Jaguars are able to get out and reach Thomas, Miami is in for a long day trying to stop Fred Taylor & Co.

  • Dan Marino gets more production from his tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Marino is going to face a much heavier and consistent pass rush than he saw last week against the Seahawks, which means that he is going to need more help from his safety valve receivers. His tight ends and running backs have been almost non-existant in the passing game this season. If they can give more production in the short zone, it will force the Jaguars to play more honest on throwing downs.

    Jacksonville will win if...

  • They establish balance on offense. The Jaguars have still yet to reach full potential on offense with the type of talent that they possess at the skill positions, but they have shown flashes of full balance on offense, and there is not a defense in the league that can stop this unit when they are firing on all cylinders. The key on Saturday is spreading out the attack to neutralize the speed of Miami's defense. If the Jaguars are struggling in one aspect of their offensive attack, it will allow for the Dolphins to gang up to defend that tendency.

  • They hold up at the offensive tackle positions. With Boselli out and Leon Searcy playing with an ankle sprain, the Jaguars find themselves concerned about what is usually their strongest position on the field. Ben Coleman takes over for Boselli at left tackle while Searcy will play injured on the right side. It will be interesting to see if communication breaks down, causing some assignment problems.

  • Defensive coordinator Dom Capers takes risks to get pressure on Dan Marino. The Jaguars must get to Marino. The entire Jaguar defensive system is predicated on pressure, which means that CB's Aaron Beasley and Fernando Bryant will be left in a lot of man-to-man situations on Miami's receivers. Even though Marino is not at the top of his game, he still have enough left in his arm, and is crafty enough to get his receivers the ball against single man coverage on the outside.

    The War Room edge
    This game could be a lot closer than most people would expect. The Jaguars' biggest concern is going to be at the offensive tackle position where Tony Boselli is out for the playoffs and Leon Searcy is playing with an ankle sprain. The Dolphins will struggle to put points on the board, but so will the Jaguars, who are forced to limit some of their playcalling to adjust to the problems up front. Miami is not going to pull off the upset because they simply make too many mistakes on both sides of the ball and will likely turn the ball over more than Jacksonville. Still, Miami will keep it close because of their ability to apply pressure on defense with great team speed.

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