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NFL

Monday, January 3
War Room: 49ers at Falcons

The War Room

San Francisco offense vs. Atlanta defense

49ERS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 3

Pass 23

Tot. Yds. 13

Scoring 24

Int's allowed 19

Sacks allowed 33

FALCONS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 29

vs. Pass 6

Total yds. allowed 15

# of Ints. 12

# of Sacks 39

Turnover differential -18

These two teams meet for the second time in four weeks but they couldn't be entering this game with different emotions. The Niners, who rolled to a 26-7 victory over the Falcons in Week 14, lost a tough game in overtime last week after leading the entire way against the Redskins.

A rib injury clouds RB Charlie Garner's status for Sunday's game and if he can't play rookie Terry Jackson will start in his place. A fourth quarter fumble by Jackson was the turning point in last week's loss and it will be a huge blow to the Niners if the dependable Garner is unavailable for the finale.

San Francisco used a ball-control scheme to wear down the Falcons in early December, piling up 181 yards on the ground against one the league's worst run defenses. Atlanta's front four, which was simply out-muscled at the point of attack by the Niners, must play sound gap-responsible defense against an athletic offensive line that pulls and traps very effectively. OLB Keith Brooking, who led the Falcons with 15 tackles at 3Com Park, and the rest of the linebacker corps must be careful not to play too aggressively and overpursue against San Francisco's shifty running backs.

Although he would like to stick with a ground-oriented attack, offensive coordinator Marty Mohrninweg might start with a short, high-percentage passing game to ease QB Jeff Garcia into the flow. This game plan worked well before against Atlanta's top-notch secondary, although Garcia's longest completion went for just 22 yards.

Because Garcia doesn't have the arm to beat them down the field, look for the Falcons to play a lot of tight press coverage on the outside to disrupt the timing of the Niners' passing game. If that's the case, TE Greg Clark must be effective between the hashes to influence the safeties toward the middle of the field. Clark who finished with four catches for 46 yards in San Francisco, did his job in the previous game but Garcia was still only able to complete five passes to his perimeter receivers.

The Falcons need a strong effort up front from their front four, who registered just two sacks in San Francisco. In last week's game against the Cardinals, no member of defensive line coach's Bill Kollar's unit recorded more than two solo tackles. Atlanta has the definitive advantage athletically against San Francisco's weak pass-blocking group so expect to see a lot of twists and stunts up front.

Atlanta offense vs. San Francisco defense

FALCONS OFFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28

Pass 18

Tot. Yds. 26

Scoring 27

Int's allowed 19

Sacks allowed 49

49ERS DEFENSE

Ranking in the NFL:

vs. Run 17

vs. Pass 31

Total yds. allowed 29

# of Ints. 13

# of Sacks 32

Turnover differential -11

The two keys in last week's 37-14 win over Arizona were turnovers and rushing. In a rare feat this season, the Falcons didn't turn the ball over and backup RB Byron Hanspard provided an unexpected lift with 102 yards on 26 carries. Quite simply, Atlanta will need to run the football to be competitive on Sunday.

In their Week 14 meeting, the Falcons rushed for just 38 yards on 12 carries and their ineffectiveness on the ground in the first quarter forced them to abandon the run altogether in the final 45 minutes. San Francisco's run defense didn't have to face Pro Bowler Stephen Davis last week but they did a nice job in holding reserve Skip Hicks to 48 yards on 13 carries.

One area the Falcons can definitely hurt the Niners is on screen passes out of the backfield to FB Bob Christian, who had 100 total yards from scrimmage last week. Washington slipped third-down backs Larry Centers and Brian Mitchell out of the backfield 10 times for 121 yards on Sunday night, often catching San Francisco out of position on the blitz.

Defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. has alternated between using OLB's Ken Norton Jr. and Lee Woodall on the blitz to generate pressure, which means Christian will be an easy hot read for QB Chris Chandler all day long.

If the Falcons can establish some offensive balance, it will give Chandler time to find his receivers. Because they have shuffled their receiver corps all season, Atlanta's passing game lacks the chemistry it had a year ago. The play-action passing game will give Chandler the time he needs to find receivers because he can no longer simply anticipate where his receivers are going to be.

San Francisco's maligned secondary gave up far too many big plays again last week considering the Redskins' offense was operating without a ground threat. The Niners were shredded for 471 yards through the air but don't expect them to give the same respect to the Falcons' receivers that they gave Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell.

San Francisco matches up better athletically with Atlanta's marginal skill people, so look for them to play tighter coverage on the perimeter and force the smallish receivers to beat them physically.

Along with the outside linebackers, SS Tim McDonald also saw a lot of activity on the blitz.

Washington's running backs did a nice job of diagnosing the blitz and picking up McDonald, which exposed the soft play of the corners. If McDonald doesn't do a better job of disguising when he's coming, a smart quarterback like Chandler will adjust protections and burn the Niners with the vertical throw.

Special teams

NFL RANK
Category	SF	ATL
Punt return avg.	31	13
Kickoff return avg.	17	29
Opp. punt return avg.	21	2
Opp. kickoff ret. avg.	28	23
Time of possession	16	27

San Francisco P Chad Stanley did a horrible job in last week's loss, averaging just 34.2 yards on five attempts with a long of just 44 yards. The Niners' return teams were also unspectacular, committing far too many penalties that put the offense in poor field position. In their meeting three weeks ago, Atlanta RS Winslow Oliver returned a punt 58 yards for the team's only score but a critical fumble cost the team some points. Since that game, Tim Dwight has reassumed the punt return chores but Oliver remains deep on kicks. Between Dwight and San Francisco RS Roell Preston, the Georgia Dome's fast track should provide for some excitement on special teams on way or the other.

Key matchups

San Francisco OLB Lee Woodall vs. Atlanta interior OL
Because they haven't been able to pressure the quarterback with the front four, Defensive Coordinator Jim Mora Jr. has used Woodall increasingly on the blitz. Last Sunday, the Redskins couldn't find a solution for Woodall, who spent a good part of the night in their backfield.

Atlanta QB Chris Chandler vs. San Francisco DCs McDonald, Walker, and Prioleau
When his line protects well, Chandler still has Pro Bowl talent left in his tank, as he showed last week. Chandler could have huge game against a cornerback group that gives generous cushions and concedes almost everything under ten yards.

San Francisco FB Fred Beasley vs. Atlanta MLB Jesse Tuggle
With RB Garner's status in question, Beasley could assume an even greater role in the running game on Monday night. Niners' OC Dalman is executing his combination blocks better than at any time this season and Tuggle can't afford to hung up inside with a power back like Beasley pounding the ball up the middle.

San Francisco will win if...

They establish a rhythm on offense early. QB Garcia was sharp early last week and his play-making continued until late in the game when RB Garner left the game. If San Francisco can develop a nice run/pass mix early, the Falcons will have a hard time sticking to their attacking game plan.

OLB Woodall and Norton defend the screen better than they did a week ago. Although they did a solid job against the run, the Niners' linebackers were killed on screen passes. The Falcons worked FB Bob Christian into the passing game very nicely a week ago and he could have another big game if San Francisco doesn't diagnose plays better on Monday.

They can take away a dimension of the Falcons' offense. The Niners easily disposed of the Falcons very easily a few weeks ago because the never let them get their ground game untracked. By holding Atlanta to just 38 yards on 12 carries, San Francisco was able to play more nickel and dime coverage to help defend the pass against the Falcons' base set.

Atlanta will win if...

They get more out of their first down plays. Their non-existent running game in the prior meeting translated into too many third-and-long situations. The Falcons converted a season-low 2-of-18 third down attempts in that meeting because they simply don't have enough impact players in the passing game to make crucial plays.

They can contain San Francisco's ground game. The possible loss of Garner could hurt the Niners, who rolled up 181 yards (4.1 avg.) on the ground the last time around. The Falcons would be better off stacking the line this time around, forcing QB Garcia to beat them with his arm.

The front-four can put better heat on QB Garcia. Atlanta's front four has inconsistent all season, with one strong effort followed up by a lackluster one. The Falcons only sacked Garcia twice in the game at 3Com Park but the Georgia Dome turf should play to their quickness.

The War Room edge
The Falcons couldn't have played much worse than they did the first time around against the Niners. QB Chandler is a streaky passer and his performance last week against Arizona suggests he'll have the hot hand on Monday night. The key in this one will be which team runs the ball more effectively. Neither passing game stands a chance if it doesn't have a complimentary run threat. San Francisco played one of its better games last Sunday before self-destructing late. Another tough divisional loss will be a fitting end to the Niners' nightmare season.

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