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Thursday, December 30
War Room: Lions at Vikings


Detroit offense vs. Minnesota defense
LIONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 9
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 57
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 27
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 39
Turnover differential -9
Detroit's lack of a running game came back to haunt them again last Saturday against the Broncos. While the popular response to the near-shutout would be to bash QB Charlie Batch, such judgment is unfair. Although Batch was visibly rusty and didn't see the field like he normally does, the second-year leader was facing padded pass defenses because Denver simply didn't respect Detroit's ground game.

The Lions are contemplating a move back to Gus Frerotte, based on how each quarterback performs this week in practice. The rumored return of shifty ex-starter RB Ron Rivers didn't materialize on Christmas but the team will sorely need him this week.

This is a must-win game for the Lions because a loss would put them on the road in the first round of the playoffs. If Bobby Ross doesn't rush Rivers back into action, the fate of the ground game will again rest on Greg Hill and nickel back Sedrick Irvin, neither of whom have established a consistent threat over the past month.

After starting slowly last week against New York, defensive coordinator Foge Fazio's run defense stiffened, holding the Giants to just 76 yards on 26 carries. For the first time in weeks, the Vikings' linebacker corps was extremely active, as MLB Ed McDaniel and OLB Dwayne Rudd combined for 19 tackles.

One area where the Vikings appear to have a definitive advantage in this finale is in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota's maligned defense totaled five sacks last week in the 34-17 rout of the Giants, four of which came from members of the defensive line.

Look for the Vikings to move DT John Randle up and down the line of scrimmage to find mismatches against the Lions' patchwork offensive line that gave up five sacks against the Broncos. A veteran Pro Bowler like Randle should wreck havoc against an inexperienced line, especially on the edges where OT's Tony Ramirez and Barret Brooks were poor last Saturday.

Aside from the pressure he faced, Batch's struggles were compounded by continued inconsistency from his receiver corps. TE David Sloan dropped a pair of early throws that would have given Detroit first downs and WR Germaine Crowell didn't come up with a perfect deep strike that would have been a sure touchdown. WR Herman Moore will replace the slumping Crowell in the starting lineup this week in order for the veteran to use his experience against some of the Vikings' young defensive backs.

Minnesota's secondary surrendered 297 yards to New York's Kerry Collins but it took him 31 receptions to compile those numbers. If the Vikings can defend the deep third of the field like they did a week ago, it will force the Lions to find rhythm in the short passing game that hasn't been present in their three-game losing streak.

Minnesota offense vs. Detroit defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 19
Sacks allowed 38
   
LIONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 10
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 21
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 45
Turnover differential +9
Big plays were the name of the game for the Vikings last week in the Meadowlands in what was team's most complete game of the year. Although the Giants held more than a 15-minute advantage in time of possession, the Vikings maximized their opportunities on offense, piling up 146 yards on 18 plays in the second half.

The most encouraging sign for Minnesota was the resurgence of RB Robert Smith, who scored his first touchdown in over a year on a 70-yard run in the fourth quarter. Smith's explosion and outside threat was complimented by the short-yardage and goal line success of RB Leroy Hoard, who scored a pair of touchdowns last Sunday. The Vikings' backfield duo will present a unique challenge for Detroit's linebackers because Smith threatens the edges and Hoard pounds the ball inside like few backs in the NFC.

Although Minnesota has scored more than two-thirds of its red zone touchdowns through the air, the threat of a diverse ground game will discourage the Lions from loading up on the perimeter. Last Saturday, Denver running back Olandis Gary piled up 174 second-half yards against the strength of Detroit's defense -- its front seven. The bulk of those yards came on patient cutback runs where the Broncos caught the Lions' front four slanting to one side.

This week, Detroit's defensive linemen and linebackers must do a better job of disengaging from their blocks at the point of attack. Expect the Vikings to deploy a number of running plays that require difficult combination blocks from center Jeff Christy, who will be asked to initially double-team defensive tackle Luther Ellis before reaching instinctive middle linebacker Stephen Boyd.

Detroit's thin secondary did a nice job of containing Denver's dangerous duo of Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey, hold them to just 11 catches and 89 yards. The difference this week is that George has a much bigger arm than Brian Griese. In the first meeting between these division rivals, George entered the game after Randall Cunningham struggled in the first half. Detroit safeties Ron Rice and Mark Carrier must pay special attention to Randy Moss and Chris Carter this week because George has the tendency to lock on his outside receivers and ignore the middle of the field.

The Lions won't exactly disregard the hash area but defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello would rather force George to beat them doing something he's not comfortable with. The key to Detroit's pass defense will be the play of its linebackers. Because they don't matchup well in man coverage, the Lions will go mostly with zone looks. OLB's Chris Claiborne and Allen Aldridge must get good depth in the drops to take away the long crossing routes that are a staple of Minnesota's play book.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN DET
Punt return avg. 18 11
Kickoff return avg. 8 22
Opp. punt return avg. 12 19
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 13 12
Time of possession 22 26
For the first time in three weeks, the Vikings' return teams didn't commit any fumbles. KOR Moe Williams became the third Viking in the past month to score on special teams with his 85-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter. Detroit's cover teams did an excellent job last week against Denver, holding the Broncos to just 17 yards on two kickoff returns. RS Desmond Howard showed tremendous burst on Christmas and was close to breaking more than one return. With the offense sputtering, Detroit needs Howard to provide good field position this week. Minnesota P Mitch Berger often out-kicks his coverage units and should give Howard the opportunities he needs.

Key matchups

  • Detroit WR Germaine Crowell vs. Minnesota DC Jimmy Hitchcock
    Many fans in Detroit have jumped on the Crowell bandwagon but his dropped touchdown pass on Christmas was a reflection of his inexperience. Hitchcock doesn't match up well athletically with Crowell, so look for him to give a big cushion and test Crowell's patience and concentration on underneath routes.

  • Detroit RB Ron Rivers vs. Minnesota MLB Ed McDaniel
    The Lions expect Rivers to return this week for the finale but there is still a possibility they could rest him for the playoffs. If he goes, Rivers should offer a better change of direction option for the Lions than they've had since his injury. McDaniel can't afford a sloppy performance like the one he had in the first meeting between these teams.

  • Minnesota RB Robert Smith vs. Detroit OLB Allen Aldridge
    Last Saturday, the Broncos focused their running game at Aldridge in the second half and Olandis Gary dominated. Smith's 70-yard touchdown against the Giants was the type of play that this team needs from him as the gear up for the playoffs.

    Minnesota will win if...

  • Their defense does a good job on first down. The Vikings must play tough against the run and force the Lions to convert long plays in the passing game. Minnesota will have a tough time stopping the Lions if QB Batch can dink and dunk his way down the field.

  • They find a way to run the football. Minnesota mustered just 60 yards rushing in the first meeting with the Lions but they could be catching a demoralized defense. Detroit was overpowered at the point of attack last week and gave up far too many yards on the cutback.

  • They find a way to convert touchdowns in the red zone. The Vikings' backfield duo will present a unique challenge for Detroit's linebackers because Smith threatens the edges and Hoard pounds the ball inside like few backs in the NFC. Although Minnesota has scored more than two-thirds of its red zone touchdowns through the air, the threat of a diverse ground game will discourage the Lions from loading up on the perimeter.

    Detroit will win if...

  • They play with emotion. For some unthinkable reason, the Lions have not come to play the past two weeks with huge playoff implications on the line. Now, with a wild card spot secured, it will be important for Bobby Ross' team to show up ready to play in a post-season atmosphere.

  • The front-seven works to get off their blocks. Denver dominated them last week on the ground because guys simply weren't disengaging and making tackles. If Detroit continues to slant its front four, the linebackers better be ready to contend with RB's Smith and Hoard running downhill.

  • Their playmakers step up on offense. While QB Batch was visibly rusty a week ago, he can't shoulder all the blame for the team's loss. The strength of this team, the receiver corps, is consistently not playing up to its ability but they'll face a suspect secondary on Sunday. Minnesota did an excellent job of eliminating big plays when these teams met at the Silverdome and they'll need another strong effort this time around.

    The War Room edge

    This game has huge implications for both teams. Whoever wins hosts a playoff game and the loser must go on the road in the first round. The Vikings probably would have won the first game between these teams if QB George had played the entire game and it's difficult to see the Lions' secondary holding up against him for four quarters. With plenty to play for the past two weeks, Detroit has simply chosen not to show up. Head coach Bobby Ross doesn't have any answers for his players' lackluster efforts but he needs to turn things around if the Lions want to have a chance in the playoffs. The Vikings will turn this one into a shoot-out and simply outscore the sinking Lions. Detroit enters the playoffs with a four-game losing streak.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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