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PAGE 2


Tim Kurkjian
Friday, February 9
Health care reform



How well these five come back from injuries will decide the NL balance of power. As seen in the Feb. 19 issue of ESPN The Magazine.

Comeback Player of the Year? Here are five NL guys sure to appear on anyone's preseason ballot. All missed a big part of 2000 because of injury. Their comebacks may determine the league's winners and losers.

If John Smoltz's approach to the accordian means anything, he'll be 100% by Opening Day.
Mark McGwire
Big Mac has worked out 2 1/2 hours a day, five days a week to rehab his right knee and strengthen his back. "I feel like I'm 18 years old," he says. In the first half of 2000, the Cards hit the most homers in baseball (149) and were on pace to obliterate the single-season ML record of 264. But in the second half, mostly without McGwire, they hit just 86.
At stake: If McGwire plays at least 130 games, the Cards will blow through the NL Central.

Craig Biggio
One of the game's sturdiest, most aggressive players had ACL surgery on his left knee in August, an operation that normally takes a full year to recover from. Biggio's not normal. "I feel like a rookie," he says. Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker is a bit more cautious: "I don't think he's going to have the speed or the range by Opening Day that we've come to expect."
At stake: If Biggio can't come close to his 1999 form, 2001 in Houston will look an awful lot like 2000.

John Smoltz
He says his right elbow is 80% and will be 100% by Opening Day. Bank on that. There is not a more committed player in sports. Consider his approach to learning the accordion: "I practiced hours and hours. I didn't need anyone to motivate me." Sure, John, but a lot of teens are self-starters. "I was 4."
At stake: If Smoltzie wins 15, the Braves win the NL East-again.

Ugueth Urbina
July elbow surgery worked. In winter ball, he threw in the low 90s with a baffling change-up. Now he has to sharpen his slider. "We're not going to baby him this spring," says Expos GM Jim Beattie. Healthy, Urbina is a top closer, attractive to any team in need of one. (Hello, Rangers.)
At stake: If Ugie's okay, some contending team will get better fast.

Larry Walker
The right elbow was surgically repaired, and he's throwing and swinging without pain. He says the right knee's 100% too. Walker played just 87 games last season and, knowing something could snap at any time, played without his usual abandon. "In four years," says Rockies coach Rich Donnelly, "I've never seen him swing that badly." Healthy, he's one of the game's five best players.
At stake: If Walker can play only 90 games, the Rockies will tumble -- but if he plays 150, they'll win the NL West.

ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com.

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