Series Breakdown: Red Wings vs. Avalanche
By Brian Engblom
Special to ESPN.com
With plenty of history between them, the Red Wings and Avalanche meet in the Western Conference semifinals beginning Thursday night. Check out which team has the edge, and then see what I think the outcome will be.
Matching up 5-on-5
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The Red Wings are a little deeper on the third and fourth lines. It makes a big difference when the third and fourth lines can dominate, score and control the game.
That's what separates the Red Wings. The adjustments from one game to the
next and one period to the next will be interesting. Adam Foote and Ray
Bourque will play against whichever Colorado believes is Detroit's top line.
It could be Steve Yzerman's line in some games, or Sergei Fedorov's line.
The same thing could be said for Nicklas Lidstrom, who will play against Colorado's top line. Will it be Peter Forsberg's line or Joe Sakic's? Detroit has so
many different line combinations that you are never sure what Scotty Bowman
might do. Will the Wings pit Fedorov
against Forsberg or Yzerman against Sakic, or the other way around? It's
difficult to say. Between the two teams, there will be a
lot of jockeying around. Colorado also has changed its lines
around, especially after Bourque and Dave
Andreychuk joined the team, and that was good preparation.
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Special teams
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Detroit can throw two outstanding power plays, one after the other, using about 10 different players -- and they are all good and effective. Both teams had nearly identical power-play numbers in the first round; they each scored seven goals, and the percentages were close (30.4 for Detroit, 25.9 for Colorado). Colorado has two excellent power plays as well and can use nine or 10 players, like the Red Wings. So, the pressure will be on the penalty killers and whichever team takes penalties at the wrong time. Detroit has always been excellent at killing penalties and gets a slight edge. In fact, the Red Wings were perfect (no goals allowed in 23 situations) in the first round, while the Avs allowed three power-play goals against Phoenix.
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Goaltending
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This is a dead heat. You can't pick between Patrick Roy and Chris Osgood. They are both experienced Stanley Cup winners who are playing extremely well. Osgood has shown he has the mental toughness; there was a tremendous amount of doubt about him two years ago, but he won the Cup. He reached that next level as a proven, Cup-winning goalie. Roy has his legend intact as a playoff performer.
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EVEN
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Intangibles
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Colorado is a different team since the Bourque and Andreychuk acquisitions. The Avs have a much higher confidence level and have raised their play. The Red Wings were 4-1 against Colorado during the regular season, winning the first four games before losing to the Avs on the final day of the season with many of Detroit's top players on the bench. But Colorado is a changed team, and I don't believe the season series means that much.
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PREDICTION
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Red Wings in seven. Special teams are going to be a big factor. There will be such a small margin for error. They will pound each other. The Red Wings showed a killer instinct vs. L.A. and want badly to return to the finals. |
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Brian Engblom, a former NHL star with Montreal, serves as an NHL analyst for ESPN and ABC.
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