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Tuesday, December 10 More to plus-minus than meets the eye By E.J. Hradek ESPN The Magazine |
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Every statistic has its pluses and minuses. So, fittingly, the NHL's plus/minus stat has its own share of positives and negatives.
"When you consider that approximately 70 to 75 percent of the game is played at even-strength -- and the plus/minus is (more of) an even-strength stat -- you have to consider it a significant statistic," said Flames general manager Craig Button. "I look at it, but I do so in relation to the total picture." Other puckheads don't spend much time dwelling on it or any other statistics. "I don't pay much attention to stats," said Bruins coach Robbie Ftorek, who prefers to make his judgments based on what he sees from behind the bench. "Any players that worry about stats are in the wrong league." Of course, as a coach, Ftorek is concerned about just one statistic: wins. But, when a player is negotiating a new contract, he gets to hear a variety of statistical numbers, and plus/minus is among them. "Oh, you definitely hear it when it comes time to talk about contracts," said speedy Bruins forward Brian Rolston. "But, a lot of things go into that number. It shouldn't be a be-all, end-all number." While the plus/minus stat can be a good indicator of a player's two-way performance, a few factors should be weighed in considering the rating.
Last season, defenseman Lyle Odelein was a minus-28 in 65 games with the second-year expansion Blue Jackets. After being traded to the playoff-bound Blackhawks, Odelein was even through the last 12 games of the season. Second, the plus/minus stat favors the defensive-minded player. On a power play, a player gets a minus when his team surrenders a short-handed goal, but doesn't get a plus if his team scores. On the penalty kill, he gets a plus if his team scores a short-handed goal, but doesn't get a minus if he surrenders a power-goal goal. An offensive-minded player, such as a power-play specialist, will be in a minus-only position more often than his penalty-killing teammates, who are in plus-only situations more often. Also, late in a game, a losing team will have its best offensive players on the ice. Those players will be pushing to score, taking chances that can lead to goals against. Another minus. Meanwhile, the winning team will deploy their top defensive players, who will get scoring chances due to the risky play of their opponents. Another plus. Offensive players get a minus when an empty-net goal is scored against their team. The defensive players, on the ice to protect a lead, get a plus.
Not surprisingly -- perhaps because of this built-in bias -- offensive players don't have much use for the number. "What can I say about it?," asked Penguins forward Alexei Kovalev. "If I make a good play and we don't score, then one of our other players makes a mistake and the other team scores, I get a minus?" Rolston figures that defensive players, especially defensive defensemen, probably keep a closer eye on their plus/minus. "I think it's something they can hang their hat on," Rolston said. "Goal scorers look at goals, playmakers look at assists, stay-at-home defensemen look at plus/minus." In some cases, on some teams, the plus/minus stat can single out certain players. "When I see a plus player on a team that has a lot of minus players, I'm impressed," Button said. "And, when I see a single minus guy on a team with many plus players, I start to think about what role that player serves on that team. In some cases, it makes sense; in others, it doesn't." Bruins GM Mike O'Connell also looks at the plus/minus numbers, but notes they can be misleading. "It's an indicator, but I don't think it tells the whole story," O'Connell said. "But, in the long haul, it is a positive thing to be a plus player." As a defenseman, during the 1970s and 80s, O'Connell had a little different view of the statistic. "If I was a plus, it meant something," O'Connell joked. "But, if I was a minus, it didn't." E.J. Hradek writes hockey for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at ej.hradek@espnmag.com. |
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