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Washington offense vs. Indianapolis defense
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REDSKINS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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1
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Pass
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8
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Tot. Yds.
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3
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Scoring
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2
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Int's allowed
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13
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Sacks allowed
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22
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COLTS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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14
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vs. Pass
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20
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Total yds. allowed
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16
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# of Ints.
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10
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# of Sacks
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37
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Turnover differential
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-2
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A huge key to Washington's offensive success is how the team protects QB Brad Johnson. The 'Skins offensive line surrendered only two sacks to a Cardinal defense anchored by league sack leader Simeon Rice. A commitment to the running game also allows the Skins to open things up down the field, making WR Michael Westbrook's job a lot easier. This week, the Redskins need to continue to run the ball effectively against an Indianapolis defense that is capable of pressuring the quarterback, and will undoubtedly be looking to get after Johnson and take him out of his game. RB Stephen Davis is a big back who excels at running between the tackles, so look for the Redskins to pound the ball behind LOG Keith Simms (or Brad Badger - who has filled in when Simms has been hurt), OC Cory Raymer and ROG Tre Johnson. If the Redskins can dominate at the point of attack in the middle of the line of scrimmage, Davis will hit the line with speed, and has enough size and strength to carry tacklers and gain a lot of yardage after initial contact. Expect the Redskins to show a lot of three and four wide receiver looks to force the Colts to use their nickel and dime packages - which are among the team's worst defensive sets.
The Indianapolis defense seems to get better each week, provided it isn't facing QB's Drew Bledsoe or Dan Marino. Aside from Marino and Bledsoe, the Colts have held opposing QB's to a paltry 53.9% completion rate and 188 yards per game. This unit will have its work cut out for it this week against the Redskins' Johnson. Johnson is a veteran player who patiently progresses through his reads and has a stud running back to rely upon to open up the passing game. For the Colts to slow down Washington's high-octane attack, expect Colts' defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to do whatever is necessary to get after Johnson. Given the skill of the Redskin WR's, Fangio would prefer that pressure is created by the front four - DE's Chad Bratzke and Mark Thomas. Both have average physical skills, but have motors that just do not quit. The Colts will also need a big game from a secondary that has looked vulnerable when forced to show nickel and dime looks against teams that are deep at WR and can throw the football. Indianapolis nickel backs Tony Blevins and Billy Austin will probably match-up against veteran Redskin WR Irving Fryar, who seems to be getting more in tune with QB Johnson each week. When the Colts are forced to play nickel, the team has to practice solid, fundamental tackling as there will be more room for Washington's bruising RB Davis to work. Indianapolis lacks any big play presence in the secondary, but this has not been exposed because of the front seven's ability to pressure opposing QB's. The Indianapolis defense has 37 sacks this season.
Indianapolis offense vs. Washington defense
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COLTS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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17
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Pass
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6
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Tot. Yds.
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4
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Scoring
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3
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Int's allowed
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15
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Sacks allowed
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13
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REDSKINS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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24
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vs. Pass
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27
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Total yds. allowed
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28
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# of Ints.
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20
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# of Sacks
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36
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Turnover differential
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+4
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Indianapolis' offense has put up some tremendous numbers this season. The most impressive number of all, however, is the fact that QB Peyton Manning has only been sacked 13 times all season. The Indianapolis offensive line has jelled this season, and Manning is one of the best QB's in the game at getting the ball out to his receivers quickly. This week against a Redskin defense that has improved its play over the last several weeks, the Colts will need to be sharp offensively, and that starts by establishing the running game with rookie RB Edgerrin James. James' combination of speed and power will be a difficult match-up for the Washington linebackers, so look for the Colts to give James the ball early and often, putting him in the position to run through a smallish Redskin back-seven. WR Marvin Harrison is having a career year, and has had some of his biggest games this year against the premier cover corners in the NFL (Ty Law, Sam Madison and Deion Sanders), so expect Manning to look for Harrison this week against Washington's highly-touted rookie CB,Champ Bailey. Bailey tends to bite on ball-fakes and double moves, and Manning and Harrison are two of the best players in the league at executing these respective disciplines. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore will put Harrison in motion to take away the size and strength advantage enjoyed by Bailey, preventing the larger cornerback from jamming Harrison at the LOS.
Washington's defense, much maligned over the first half of the season, has been coming on in recent weeks. The play of DT Dana Stubblefield has been a positive factor - particularly against the pass - where his push up the middle has disrupted opposing QB's rhythm and forced hurries and throws on the run. The 'Skins face a daunting task this weekend: shutting down one of the most balanced and most dangerous offenses in the league. Washington needs to mirror the schemes used by the Jets both times against Indianapolis this year: bend but don't break. That requires that LDC Champ Bailey play a conservative game, not jumping the short routes, rather, allowing Harrison to catch the shorter balls and making solid tackles. Against Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James, Washington needs its defensive linemen to stay in their lanes - not allowing the dangerous James the room to make his cutbacks - and giving the teams linebackers the opportunity to come up and support the run. The linebackers will undoubtedly need help from the Washington safeties - SS Sam Shade and FS Lamont Evans - to contain one of the brightest young stars in the league in James. Some of the toughest aspects of James' game for defenses to game plan against are his skills as a receiver. Washington LOLB Shawn Barber will be saddled with the large responsibility of covering James or Indianapolis TE Ken Dilger, depending on the situation.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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WAS
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IND
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Punt return avg.
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23
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17
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Kickoff return avg.
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20
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16
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Opp. punt return avg.
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29
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31
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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25
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24
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Time of possession
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21
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13
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Washington has shown an ability to free KOR James Thrash on several occasions, while at the same time showing an inability to contain opposing return men - including a 68 yarder last week against the Cardinals. Colts rookie KR Terrence Wilkins has explosive speed and could cause problems for the Redskins this week. Colts PK Mike Vanderjagt will be the AFC representative in the Pro Bowl this season. Vanderjagt has made 20 consecutive field goals this season, including a game winning 54-yarder against Miami two weeks ago. The Redskins kicker, Brett Conway, has been inconsistent at times, and needs to be on the mark down the stretch.
Key matchups
Redskins RB Stephen Davis vs. Colts defensive front-seven
Davis is the most prolific scoring RB in the NFL and he has the advantage of a great passing game that really stretches a defense and opens up run lanes. The Colts will try to cover the Redskin WR's in single m/m matchups to allow their front-seven to blitz and stop the run.
Colts RB Edgerrin James vs. Redskins OLB Shawn Barber
Barber is a very athletic linebacker who has great speed and cover skills, but he will have his hands full with James if he is covering him out of the backfield. James is a nightmare matchup for a linebacker and he is a huge threat in the passing game.
Colts DE Chad Bratzke vs. Redskins LOT Andy Heck
Bratzke is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL and he goes against a very cagey veteran in Andy Heck, who is not nearly as talented as Bratzke. Heck would love to block Bratzke one-on-one, but he may require some help, which means the Redskins would have to leave a back in to block.
Washington will win if...
They run the football and make QB Peyton Manning a spectator. The Redskins are successful when the run the football not only because it sets up the passing game, but because it also keeps its suspect defense off the field. Washington is undersized defensively, and will have more trouble than most teams against the Colts' balanced offensive attack. The Redskins need to run the football over 30 times, allowing RB Stephan Davis to get into a rhythm while controlling the time of possession battle.
They don't give up big plays early to the Colts passing game. The Redskins have been playing a lot more zone coverage on defense, but expect a different look Sunday, using more "cloud" coverage to not only press the Colts' receivers at the line of scrimmage, but also taking away the deep third with soft coverage from its safeties. The Redskins are going to have enough trouble stopping the Colts running game because of its undersized linebackers, so preventing the big play becomes that much more critical in order to avoid a catch up situation against one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the league.
Their defensive front-seven can pressure Colts QB Peyton Manning. The Redskins need to get to Manning to disrupt the timing of the Colt's passing game. Washington has an athletic linebacking corps that is going to have to be active in the blitz scheme. Washington has two solid cover corners in Daryl Green and Champ Bailey, so they should be able to get away with an aggressive blitz package as long as they get to Manning.
Indianapolis will win if...
They continue to have balance on offense. The Colts are doing just about everything right on offense. they have one of the top running games with rookie RB Edgerrin James, and a prolific passing attack, featuring QB Peyton Manning and a slew of weapons in the receiving corps. The Colts still need to be able to run the ball, which they should be able to do against one of the worst run defenses in the league, using playaction off the run to catch the Redskins out of position.
They don't give up costly big plays on defense to the Redskins passing game. The Colts have had some breakdowns in its secondary because of over pursuit. The Redskins have a balanced offensive attack and are extremely effective throwing the ball down the field off the play fake. The Colts safeties need to be disciplined, not peeking in on the play fake and holding their ground in the deep third to give their corners help over the top.
Get RB Edgerrin James involved in the passing game early on. James is most effective when he is establishes himself as a versatile threat in the offense. When James gets involved as a receiver, it forces defenses to respect his speed out of the backfield, which forces the outside linebackers to keep contain and avoid getting upfield in the pass rush.
The War Room edge
The Colts are playing with tremendous pride, poise, and maturity and they face a team in the Redskins that is very similar to them, at least on offense. Both of these offenses can light it up and they both possess offensive balance, which makes it very difficult for opposing defenses to attack. However, the Colts are better and more consistent on defense than the Redskins and that will be the different in this game. Washington has a chance for an upset because they are desperate and need this game more than the Colts, but Jim Mora knows the advantage of home field advantage throughout the playoffs and he will have this young team focused. This should be a very entertaining offensive game with the potential for a lot of big plays, but the Colts' defense will make enough stops and force a couple of turnovers to be the difference.
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