If last year's meeting was any indication, Sunday's matchup between the St. Louis Rams and the Minnesota Vikings could be a wild one, a high-scoring affair between two of the league's offensive powerhouses.
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| Robert Smith could be the difference for the Vikings. |
Last year in Week 2 at the Trans World Dome in St. Louis, the Vikings prevailed 38-31. Looking at film of that game, there were some really good matchups. Even though many of the players have changed -- in particular, no Brad Johnson or Tony Banks, the starting quarterbacks in that game -- the schemes and the concepts are much the same. I believe we can expect Sunday's game to be a similar wide-open game.
Quarterback Jeff George is playing well, having most of his success on first down against base defenses and coverages. On first-and-10, his quarterback rating (102.0) is the best in the NFL. No doubt, the play of Robert Smith has given the Vikings balance in their offense since Smith returned from a hernia injury. Over the last eight games, Smith's rushing average is up to 4.9 yards per carry. His average totals have been 21 carries and 102 rushing yards.
Despite the change in offensive coordinator to Ray Sherman, the Vikings have been able to generate the type of explosiveness they enjoyed under Brian Billick last season. Billick always talked about big plays, and that remained part of their offense under Sherman's direction. In fact, they have 80 plays of 20 yards or more during the regular season, the most in the NFL -- more even than the Rams. With the running of Smith, the throwing of George and the ability to make explosive plays, the Vikings are a difficult team to defense.
However, the Rams defense has been an underrated unit. They don't give anything to the opposing offense. On the outside, the Rams play high-pressure, man-to-man coverage. They don't give teams a soft, double zone, allowing the dink-and-dunk passes underneath. As a group, the Rams defensive line has played as well as any in the league. On first down, they are the NFL's best defense against the run, giving up only 2.9 yards per rush.
Meanwhile, the Vikings defense, which has struggled all season, still didn't play well last week. The Dallas Cowboys blew it against the Vikings with dropped balls and penalties. I didn't think the Vikings stopped them; the Cowboys stopped themselves. The Vikings defense allows a lot of yards, but that can be deceiving. The one thing that the Vikings defense does is play situations well. Their defense becomes outstanding in the red zone, on third down, near the goal line and in short-yardage situations. Teams move the ball up and down the field on them, but the Vikings are stingier with their nickel defense.
The Vikings defense will have to improve dramatically to slow down the Rams, whose offensive firepower rivals their own. The Rams offense is a matchup nightmare, especially with the presence of Marshall Faulk. Every time Faulk touches the ball, he averages 7.1 yards per touch, by far the best number in the league.
Looking at last week's game, the Cowboys, out of an empty backfield, were able to get Chris Warren matched up twice against Vikings linebacker Dwayne Rudd, and Warren beat Rudd both times. One time Warren dropped the ball on a corner route, and the other time Troy Aikman missed him on a corner route. If the Vikings go with the same coverage scheme, then Faulk will be lined up in the slot against Rudd, and that is a mismatch.
Regarding Kurt Warner, the league's MVP, I have to admit that I probably fell into the same trap as everyone else. Because he lacked NFL experience, I figured he might be effective for only a few games, or at least until defenses figured him out. But that hasn't been the case. The Rams quarterback has gotten better every week in his reading progression. Warner is a very accurate passer, and offensive coordinator Mike Martz does an outstanding job of setting him up for success in the offense.
Without a doubt, the Rams are the quickest offensive team in football. The Vikings attack teams with speed, but in terms of speed and quickness, the Rams are even better.
Here are the keys to Sunday's NFC divisional playoff game for each team:
Minnesota Vikings
1. Look sharp: Because of the way the Rams defense plays, a quarterback must be accurate with his throws, sticking the ball into the right spots, in order for his team to win. George will need to be sharp and precise with his throws or the Rams will capitalize. During the season the Rams intercepted 29 passes, second in the league.
2. Protect George: Looking at the Vikings-Rams game last year, Rams defensive tackle D'Marco Farr really gave the Vikings' interior offensive line some problems with his quickness. He got off the ball quickly and got penetration in the backfield. The Vikings must prevent Farr's penetration inside. I also thought defensive end Kevin Carter, with his quick outside rush, gave Vikings tackle Korey Stringer some problems as well. So, Farr and Carter are two players that the Vikings need to worry about.
3. Win time of possession: The Vikings defense needs to depend on the offense getting them a lead. If the defense has to play 65-70 snaps, they will get worn down and routed. The Vikings need to limit the number of defensive snaps on the field. That means they need to use Robert Smith to control the clock better. Otherwise, the Vikings will be in trouble if they have to defend both the run and the pass. In the secondary, Kenny Wright was cut in training camp and then brought back. Robert Tate was a wide receiver six weeks ago, and now is their nickel cornerback. They have gone through a lot of changes, bringing Jerry Ball and Chris Doleman back.
St. Louis Rams
1. Defend on first down: This is critical for St. Louis. What the Rams defense wants to do is get the Vikings in the known passing situations. They can then use their exotic coverage schemes and their blitz schemes. I don't think they will blitz George a lot, but they will get pressure with their four down linemen. The Rams must be alert for George throwing when he is most effective, on first down. They want to stop George on first down and force him to throw the ball in known situations on second and third down. They can then come with their nickel and dime packages and can attack the quarterback.
2. Pressure from the edges: The Cowboys were able to get outside pressure off the corner. But the problem was that they got no push up the middle so George was able to step up in the pocket. The Rams will want pressure on the outside from George and make George step up, but then compress the pocket in his face. That means Farr and Ray Agnew must penetrate inside.
3. Fire away: The Rams will spread out their offense and try to score early and often. Their philosophy is to score and get the defense in the known situations. In fact, in the first quarter this year, the Rams have outscored opponents 123-49. In the first half, the difference is an incredible 293-134. Of Warner's 41 touchdown passes, 29 have come in the first half. The Rams love to start fast and get out of the blocks.
Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski serves as a studio analyst for ESPN on Edge NFL Matchup and Monday NFL Countdown.
