The good news for new Chargers general manager John Butler is that
his No. 1 draft pick gained value because Virginia Tech quarterback
Michael Vick turned pro Thursday.
|  | | New Chargers general manager John Butler sits in a great spot. |
The better news is that he probably won't be able to trade it.
Vick packs the clout of potentially being the top player in this
draft even though he's a raw quarterback by NFL standards. Normally,
quarterbacks at the top of the draft are so valuable that teams pay a
ransom to move up to get them. The Chargers, for example, gave up a
second rounder, an additional first and two players in 1998 to move up one spot to draft Ryan Leaf.
Don't expect that kind of bidding this year. Six teams in the top 10 aren't in the market for quarterbacks. That leaves Seattle, which has two first-round choices, and Atlanta to bid on the top pick.
The Seahawks are looking to replace Jon Kitna, who is an unrestricted free agent after the season, but coach Mike Holmgren wants to hold onto his two choices to fix up the league's worst defense.
And while Vick would be a gate attraction for the Falcons (fifth pick) at the Georgia Dome, it would cost Dan Reeves a couple of first rounders or trading away his entire draft to move up four spots to get him.
"Lots of things will happen before that sorts itself out," Butler said Thursday at the conclusion of the East-West Shrine practice in Palo Alto, Calif. "We haven't really talked much about it. First, we're going to have to look at Michael like all other underclassmen and study them closely."
Butler's task is either simple or difficult. As a new general
manager with five years of security, Butler sits in a great spot. He'll want
to revamp his entire quarterback roster -- trading or cutting Leaf and
letting Jim Harbaugh and Moses Moreno go. By taking Vick first, he has a
huge first piece of next year's quarterback puzzle resolved.
He's then free to bring in a veteran starter through free agency to
buy time to let Vick develop. If needed, though, he has the Vick chip to
dangle in trade discussions until April.
"When there is what people perceive is an impact player in the
draft, that helps us with our pick, which I hope we never have again," said
Chargers coach Mike Riley, who endured a 1-15 season. "It really enhances
the draft no matter who it is or what year it is. If there is a guy out
there you can take who can help your team, that helps. If there is a guy you
can trade down and get some more picks, that's good.
"Either one of those things can be good for your team."
There are two problems of making such a trade, though. One is the
cost of draft-choice compensation. The other is the cost of paying the top
pick. A quarterback at the top of a draft may require a $60 million
investment over seven or eight years if you include escalator clauses and
incentives.
To start with, Arizona, Cleveland, Cincinnati, New England and San
Francisco are out of the bidding. They all have heavy commitments to their
starting quarterbacks. Again, the Seahawks could use a Vick, but Holmgren,
two years into his rebuilding process, can't wait the three years it would
take to develop Vick. The Falcons have a good quarterback in Chris Chandler,
but would like to get younger at the position.
Because they have some of the lowest revenues in the NFL, it's hard
to think that the Falcons could be big players in the Vick sweepstakes. It
would be out of the question for Reeves to instead look at Purdue
quarterback Drew Brees or even gamble a bit by trading down a few spots for
a draft choice and a lower draft slot in paying the first-rounder.
Brees' considered value is between the 10th and 15th in the first
round, a spot that is obviously elevated by team need.
The Bears, who have the eighth choice in the draft, are considered
by critics to be in need of a quarterback, but remember they reached two
years ago to make Cade McNown a first-rounder and his reviews haven't been
good.
"They had been saying that there might not be a No. 1 guy in the
draft," Riley said, referring to thoughts of the draft before Vick's
decision. "There might not have been a great market for a trade. His
decision changes the whole thing."
Butler is too smart a football evaluator to trade before the 10th
pick in the first round knowing that it's harder to get an impact player
after 10 choices. That gives teams below the 10th selection no shot of
trading up.
Take the Redskins, for example. Those might argue that with Brad Johnson
leaving in free agency and Jeff George being evaluated closely by Marty
Schottenheimer, owner Dan Snyder might go for Vick. No way.
"We only have four draft choices," Redskins vice president Vinny
Cerrato said.
The better bet is for the Chargers to take Vick. Of course, the team
won't tip its hand for three more months.
John Clayton is the senior NFL writer for ESPN.com.
| |
ALSO SEE
Vick looks out for No. 1, officially enters NFL draft
Mort Report: War raged over Vick's decision
Early NFL draft entries
Going early: LSU QB Booty hears the call to NFL
|
