Sunday, December 24
Playoff scenarios 101: Who needs what




For weeks, Gary Moeller has been telling his Detroit Lions and their fans to stop worrying about the playoffs.

Walter Rasby
The Lions, who edged the Jets to keep their playoff hopes alive, need to beat the Bears.

"I'd say, with all sincerity, 'Let's not be premature about this. By the time there's two weeks left, it'll all be crystallized,' " the head coach said from his office at the Pontiac Silverdome Monday afternoon. "Well, we're down to the last week and it's not exactly crystallized, is it?"

Not exactly. But things were finally crystallizing on Sunday.

Moeller's 9-7 Lions -- which entered the Bears game on the playoff bubble, just needing a win to get in -- were beaten on a 54-yard field goal with two seconds remaining and are out.

Heading into the final weekend, an almost unbearable number of playoff possibilities and permutations still existed. Our word for the week, class, is scenarios.

With the Bucs' victory last Monday night, the 10-5 New Orleans Saints are in the NFC playoffs, along with the Giants (11-4), Vikings (11-4) and Eagles (10-5).

That left one spot, which was up for grabs between the Lions, Rams and Green Bay Packers. The Rams got it by virtue of their win over the Saints and the Bears' upset of the Lions.

The AFC is a far murkier enterprise. Tennessee (12-3), Baltimore (11-4), Oakland (11-4) and Denver (11-5) are in, but not a single division winner has been crowned. That leaves four teams alive for the remaining two spots.

The 10-5 Dolphins and the 9-6 Jets can both get in with victories next Sunday, at New England and Baltimore, respectively. The 9-6 Colts need to defeat Minnesota and have either Miami or New York lose. If all three AFC East teams lose, the Dolphins would be in, along with the 8-7 Steelers, providing they beat San Diego.

Any questions? Now that the chaos is over in Florida, MSNBC will be devoting its entire prime-time schedule to sorting out the various playoff implications. How about that for some serious hardball?

Here is a look at the seven teams clinging to playoff hopes, listed in order of each one's likelihood of success and their rooting interests:

Jets now enter Baltimore's no-flight zone
"Hey, how you doing?"

It was Al Groh, the New York Jets' head coach, calling Monday evening.

"Probably better than you," came the answer.

The Jets, who have suffered back-to-back losses to Oakland and Detroit, are up against it. Yes, they are 9-6 and control their destiny, but that destiny will place them in Baltimore on Christmas Eve. The Jets' offense that has scored two touchdowns in two weeks faces what is likely to be the stingiest modern-day defense ever.

After the Jets suffered their oddly passionless 10-7 loss to Detroit, Groh -- a Bill Parcells disciple in his first season -- did not tear up the place. He was calm, almost pathologically placid.

"When you make that walk to the locker room, you don't have much time to think about what you want to say," Groh said. "It would be human nature to react to that by being despondent or lashing out. But, at that point the game is over. Whatever you say can only impact the next game. You ask yourself, 'Do I want this to have a positive or negative effect on the next game?'

"I chose to have a positive effect."

Think back to the beginning of the season. The Jets were not seen as a big factor in the playoffs. They have overachieved at times and won a number of close games. Nine of their 15 games, in fact, have been decided in the final minute.

Before the season began, Groh told the media he liked his team.

"I meant that," Groh said Monday. "I said if we play in a certain fashion, we can make ourselves hard to beat, every week. As bitter a loss as that was yesterday, if you think about it, we were hard to beat."

Groh talked about the bounce of the ball. If it had rolled south Sunday instead of north after Jets linebacker Marvin Jones knocked it away from running back James Stewart, the Jets would already be in the playoffs. As it was, Detroit guard Jeff Hastings beat Jets linebacker Dwayne Gordon to the ball by a split-second for the winning touchdown with 5:43 left.

Groh spoke with optimism about the task ahead.

"Well, we're certainly not going to set an objective of scoring 28 points," he said of the trip to Baltimore. "It's like going down to Tampa Bay. They're pretty good, too. But through different ways, we scratched and gouged and I think we scored 21 points (in a 21-17 victory on Sept. 24).

"In most games there are circumstances that put you in position to score points. You make a lot of those circumstances, be it with turnovers or big run backs or whatever. We have to make some of those things happen. We may not have the most all-stars, but we're going to fight like hell to win this game. This is another game where we have to make ourselves hard to beat."

Good luck, Groh was told.

"We'll take a little bit of that, probably, too," he said.

Dolphins: Go Ravens!
The Dolphins always seem to swoon in December.

Under Jimmy Johnson, the Fish were 6-9 in December -- a surprisingly weak finish for a team that made the playoffs for three straight seasons.

Well, Dave Wannstedt's team was sitting at 10-3 and in control of the competitive AFC East, but back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay (16-13) and Indianapolis (20-13) have left Miami reeling. Nevertheless, the division title is still the most likely, uh, scenario. The odds favor the combination of a victory at New England and a Jets loss at Baltimore.

Miami's defense has been solid -- only the Ravens and Titans have allowed fewer points -- but the offense has gone to South Beach since Damon Huard was injured. And that hurts, because the last four games have all been decided by a touchdown or less.

Quarterback Jay Fiedler (13 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) has a torn left rotator cuff and has been inconsistent. The wideouts have disappeared. The Dolphins had a chance to match the Colts Sunday, with the ball at their 35-yard-line and three minutes to play, but Fiedler was picked off by Jeff Burris.

It was the third straight loss at home for the Dolphins. The prospect of playing at Foxboro Stadium is probably quite appealing.

Lions: Go Bucs!
Like the Jets, the Lions are 9-6. Why is it that this 9-6 feels so much more hopeful?

Because the Lions hung on to beat the Jets on the road, 10-7, and play Chicago (4-11) in the regular-season finale. So, if the Lions finish 10-6 are they in?

In a word, yes -- thanks to Tampa Bay. Well, sort of.

The Lions merely need to win and hope the Saints and Rams don't tie in their Christmas Eve blowout in the Big Easy. In the unlikely event of a tie, Detroit still can get in with a Tampa Bay loss at Green Bay.

Wait, there's more. Even if the Lions lose, they can get in with two St. Louis losses and a Green Bay loss to the Bucs.

Colts: Go Ravens!
After three straight losses following a 7-3 start the Colts were left by many (this scribe included) for dead.

Now, after back-to-back wins over Buffalo and Miami, they are in reasonable shape for a playoff berth. All they have to do is beat Minnesota and have the Ravens knock off the Jets. This is not as ridiculous a turn of events as you might think.

First of all, the Jets' best chance to score against Baltimore is sacking Trent Dilfer in the end zone. The Colts, on the other hand, have found a rhythm on offense. His name is Edgerrin James.

James carried 32 times against the Dolphins and gained 112 yards. It was his eighth 100-yard game of the season and it, frankly, wore out Miami.

The Vikings have a soft underbelly against the run; Green Bay's Ahman Green ran for 161 yards Sunday as Minnesota lost its second straight game. How many times will Manning hand the ball to James on Christmas Eve? The over-under is 35.

Steelers: Go Ravens, Patriots, Vikings!
The least troublesome result in this house of cards is a Pittsburgh victory at 1-14 San Diego. That much, anyway, seems to be a lock.

For the Steelers to return to the playoffs for the first time since 1997, the Jets must lose at Baltimore and the Colts must fall to the Vikings. In this circumstance, the Miami Dolphins (win or lose at New England) would win the AFC East and the Steelers would get a wild-card invitation.

Clearly, the Jets have issues and with Minnesota aching to find itself again after two straight losses, motivation should not be a problem.

Jets: Go Vikes, Chargers!
Things have gotten a little squirrely in Hempstead. Once 9-4, the Jets have lost two straight games (a 31-7 embarrassment at Oakland and Sunday's listless loss to Detroit) and are in deep, deep trouble.

Technically, the Jets control their destiny; a victory in Baltimore vaults them into the playoffs. But New York employs an offense that got only a garbage-time touchdown at Oakland and a 1-yard score by Curtis Martin on Sunday that immediately followed Victor Green's interception.

The Ravens have permitted all of 145 points (9.67 per game), and are on pace to set the 16-game record for fewest allowed. Beyond that incentive, Baltimore has a shot at the home-field advantage for the playoffs.

Assuming the Jets lose (as close as there is to a certainty in this life and this wacky league), they can actually back in to the playoffs. For this to happen, the Colts and Steelers must lose. While Indianapolis has its hands full with Minnesota, Pittsburgh has the pleasure of playing at San Diego.

Rams: Go Bears!
What a difference a game makes. If the Rams had beaten the Tampa Bay, the defending Super Bowl champions would have locked up a playoff berth and the Bucs would be scuffling.

As it stands, the Bucs are in and the Rams are probably not going to qualify for the playoffs.

Here is their only shot: First, the Rams must take care of their own business with a victory at New Orleans, which is hardly a stone-cold lock. If that happens, then a Chicago victory over Detroit would allow St. Louis in.

This is not the scenario the Rams envisioned when they got off to that en fuego 6-0 start.

Packers: Go Bears, Saints!
OK, admittedly, this one is a bit of a reach.

The Packers, who have finished in a blaze, winning three straight games, must win a fourth. Considering that the last two victories have come over Detroit and (gasp!) Minnesota, and the Bucs are coming off an emotional Monday night appearance, this isn't a completely ridiculous thought.

The tricky part here is a Detroit loss to Chicago. The Lions already handled the Bears in Chicago and now they get to play them in the comfort and safety of the Silverdome. The other shoe that has to drop is a New Orleans victory over St. Louis.

Daunting, but hardly impossible.

Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com.







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