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Sunday, December 24 By Greg Garber ESPN.com | |||||||||
For weeks, Gary Moeller has been telling his Detroit Lions and their fans to stop worrying about the playoffs.
The Dolphins always seem to swoon in December. Under Jimmy Johnson, the Fish were 6-9 in December -- a surprisingly weak finish for a team that made the playoffs for three straight seasons. Well, Dave Wannstedt's team was sitting at 10-3 and in control of the competitive AFC East, but back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay (16-13) and Indianapolis (20-13) have left Miami reeling. Nevertheless, the division title is still the most likely, uh, scenario. The odds favor the combination of a victory at New England and a Jets loss at Baltimore. Miami's defense has been solid -- only the Ravens and Titans have allowed fewer points -- but the offense has gone to South Beach since Damon Huard was injured. And that hurts, because the last four games have all been decided by a touchdown or less. Quarterback Jay Fiedler (13 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) has a torn left rotator cuff and has been inconsistent. The wideouts have disappeared. The Dolphins had a chance to match the Colts Sunday, with the ball at their 35-yard-line and three minutes to play, but Fiedler was picked off by Jeff Burris. It was the third straight loss at home for the Dolphins. The prospect of playing at Foxboro Stadium is probably quite appealing. Lions: Go Bucs! Like the Jets, the Lions are 9-6. Why is it that this 9-6 feels so much more hopeful? Because the Lions hung on to beat the Jets on the road, 10-7, and play Chicago (4-11) in the regular-season finale. So, if the Lions finish 10-6 are they in? In a word, yes -- thanks to Tampa Bay. Well, sort of. The Lions merely need to win and hope the Saints and Rams don't tie in their Christmas Eve blowout in the Big Easy. In the unlikely event of a tie, Detroit still can get in with a Tampa Bay loss at Green Bay. Wait, there's more. Even if the Lions lose, they can get in with two St. Louis losses and a Green Bay loss to the Bucs. Colts: Go Ravens! After three straight losses following a 7-3 start the Colts were left by many (this scribe included) for dead. Now, after back-to-back wins over Buffalo and Miami, they are in reasonable shape for a playoff berth. All they have to do is beat Minnesota and have the Ravens knock off the Jets. This is not as ridiculous a turn of events as you might think. First of all, the Jets' best chance to score against Baltimore is sacking Trent Dilfer in the end zone. The Colts, on the other hand, have found a rhythm on offense. His name is Edgerrin James. James carried 32 times against the Dolphins and gained 112 yards. It was his eighth 100-yard game of the season and it, frankly, wore out Miami. The Vikings have a soft underbelly against the run; Green Bay's Ahman Green ran for 161 yards Sunday as Minnesota lost its second straight game. How many times will Manning hand the ball to James on Christmas Eve? The over-under is 35. Steelers: Go Ravens, Patriots, Vikings! The least troublesome result in this house of cards is a Pittsburgh victory at 1-14 San Diego. That much, anyway, seems to be a lock. For the Steelers to return to the playoffs for the first time since 1997, the Jets must lose at Baltimore and the Colts must fall to the Vikings. In this circumstance, the Miami Dolphins (win or lose at New England) would win the AFC East and the Steelers would get a wild-card invitation. Clearly, the Jets have issues and with Minnesota aching to find itself again after two straight losses, motivation should not be a problem. Jets: Go Vikes, Chargers! Things have gotten a little squirrely in Hempstead. Once 9-4, the Jets have lost two straight games (a 31-7 embarrassment at Oakland and Sunday's listless loss to Detroit) and are in deep, deep trouble. Technically, the Jets control their destiny; a victory in Baltimore vaults them into the playoffs. But New York employs an offense that got only a garbage-time touchdown at Oakland and a 1-yard score by Curtis Martin on Sunday that immediately followed Victor Green's interception. The Ravens have permitted all of 145 points (9.67 per game), and are on pace to set the 16-game record for fewest allowed. Beyond that incentive, Baltimore has a shot at the home-field advantage for the playoffs. Assuming the Jets lose (as close as there is to a certainty in this life and this wacky league), they can actually back in to the playoffs. For this to happen, the Colts and Steelers must lose. While Indianapolis has its hands full with Minnesota, Pittsburgh has the pleasure of playing at San Diego. Rams: Go Bears! What a difference a game makes. If the Rams had beaten the Tampa Bay, the defending Super Bowl champions would have locked up a playoff berth and the Bucs would be scuffling. As it stands, the Bucs are in and the Rams are probably not going to qualify for the playoffs. Here is their only shot: First, the Rams must take care of their own business with a victory at New Orleans, which is hardly a stone-cold lock. If that happens, then a Chicago victory over Detroit would allow St. Louis in. This is not the scenario the Rams envisioned when they got off to that en fuego 6-0 start. Packers: Go Bears, Saints! OK, admittedly, this one is a bit of a reach. The Packers, who have finished in a blaze, winning three straight games, must win a fourth. Considering that the last two victories have come over Detroit and (gasp!) Minnesota, and the Bucs are coming off an emotional Monday night appearance, this isn't a completely ridiculous thought. The tricky part here is a Detroit loss to Chicago. The Lions already handled the Bears in Chicago and now they get to play them in the comfort and safety of the Silverdome. The other shoe that has to drop is a New Orleans victory over St. Louis. Daunting, but hardly impossible. Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE
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