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Monday was D-Day around college football. Though the bowl season is
still weeks away, the first Bowl Championship Series rankings were
released. That's BCS, as in Big Controversy Starts.
|  | | If Peter Warrick falls to the No. 4 or 5 spot, the wheeling and dealing will begin. |
Only a year old, the BCS has already taken more shots than
Sylvester Stallone on Oscar night. And some criticisms are valid (what
exactly is a quartile, anyway?).
But sorry BCS Bashers, the system -- as flawed as it is -- has
actually been beneficial to college football. Want proof?
CBS' college ratings are up a whopping 35 percent. ABC's are up 11 percent. Compare that with the sagging NFL, NBA and Major League
Baseball numbers.
Attendance was up at most bowl games last year. And the Florida
State-Tennessee Fiesta Bowl was a legitimate No. 1 vs. No. 2
championship game -- something the game had failed to produce in three
of the previous four seasons before the BCS.
Now we'd still much prefer a playoff (either a 16-team format
encompassing current bowls or a Final Four two weeks after the bowls
end). But when SEC commissioner-BCS head honcho Roy Kramer flatly
rejects $2.4 billion from a Swiss firm for a 16-team, I-A playoff (as
he did last summer), don't look for one anytime soon. It will happen
about the same time Jim Gray and Pete Rose go to the race track
together.
Here's our look at BCS Week 1 with what those fateful letters
really mean to the contenders who aspire for the Sugar Bowl Jan. 4.
1. Florida State (Be Careful in Swamp): With WR Peter Warrick
grabbing passes again instead of clothes, the Seminoles control their
own destiny and couldn't care less about BCS computers. Though
questions remain about pass defense (shredded by Miami and Georgia
Tech) and the running game, FSU is a big game-proven team that has but
one goal -- atone for last year's Fiesta Bowl loss. Their championship
dreams go through Gainesville and nemesis Steve Spurrier on Nov. 20.
Bobby Bowden's Seminoles haven't won in the Swamp since their 1993
national title season.
2. Penn State (Be Careful of Spartans): With three near-losses,
the Nittany Lions and their sketchy offense might be a train wreck
waiting to happen. But then again, betting against JoePa late in the
year is never profitable. That regular-season finale Nov. 20 against
Michigan State in East Lansing looks ominous (Penn State was hammered
there 49-14 two years ago, their worst loss in 14 years). One more
chilling thought for Lions fans: Beano Cook has guaranteed Penn State
will go undefeated. Yikes!
3. Virginia Tech (Bad Cushy Schedule): The Hokies have that 1998
Kansas State look: Awesome team, pitiful schedule (currently 42nd and
falling). Coach Frank Beamer is not all at fault for the slate
(general Big East ineptitude), but softies James Madison and
Alabama-Birmingham don't help. However, BCS computers do love the
Hokies (No. 1 in four of seven computer polls). But remember, Virginia
Tech has gagged late in the season in each of the last three years.
And they have yet to face a real close game.
4. Tennessee (Better Cheer for Seminoles): Written off after the
loss at Florida and near-upset by Memphis in September, the
defending-champion Vols have a similar path to the Sugar Bowl to the
one FSU took to the Fiesta last year. Sure, they have to win out
(hardly tough with a superb defense) and get some help (Penn State,
Kansas State, Florida and/or Virginia Tech losing).
5. Kansas State (Big Cornhusker Showdown): Could last year's BCS
victims be this year's darlings? Sure, there's the usual joke schedule
(Temple, UTEP, Utah State). But surprisingly the Wildcats, who few
expected much of after last year's heartbreak, have a special look to
them after twice rallying from 21-point deficits on the road. Should
K-State have a similar start Nov. 13 in Lincoln against Nebraska,
forget about a third comeback. Still an upset there would likely send
Bill Snyder's Wildcats undefeated into the Big 12 Championship Game
Dec. 4. Sound familiar?
6. Florida (Better Crush Seminoles): Spurrier is returning to his
old ways. He's livid about the Gators undisciplined play; QB Doug
Johnson may be headed to the bench and he's popping off again (On
Alabama: "Bad things happen to teams that beat the Gators."). Let's
hope he goes back to throwing his visor. But when the Gators overwhelm
Georgia's suspect defense Saturday, the stage is set for the 12th and
decisive round of the ultimate game of the 1990s _ Bowden-Spurrier
(FSU leads, 6-4-1 this decade, but the Gators are 3-1 in Gainesville).
7. Nebraska (Bury Curmudgeon Snyder ): To have an outside shot at
New Orleans, the Cornhuskers must repay K-State for last year's 40-30
loss in Manhattan, the height of Nebraska's 1998 frustration. To do
that, Frank Solich has got to rev up his running game (eighth in the
nation, 254.9 yards per game) against the Wildcats' front seven (16th,
103.9). A win there would set up a rematch with pesky Texas (three
successive wins over Nebraska) in the Big 12 title game.
We still like the glittery look of a Florida State-Penn State Sugar
Bowl. But too much remains to make a definitive call. A November to
remember awaits.
John Lindsay is a columnist for the Scripps Howard News Service.
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