ESPN.com - NCF/BOWLS99 - Fowler: Checking in from the Big Easy

Tuesday, January 4
Fowler: Checking in from the Big Easy

By Chris Fowler
Special to ESPN.com

Greetings from Blacksburg South! New Orleans has been taken over by hordes of maroon and orange-wearing wackos. Virginia Tech fans outnumber the Seminole faithful by five to one. Sunday night on Bourbon Street, it was 10 to one.


	Virginia Tech fans are making the most of their team's appearance in the title game.

The edge on the street will translate into a big edge in crowd numbers and decibels for the Hokies Tuesday night in the Superdome. This is the one stadium used for the BCS title game in which crowd noise can have a significant impact on the game. It'll likely be 75-25 Tech supporters, with the Sugar Bowl old hat by now to the FSU fans.

Corey Moore has said the place will become "Terrordome" South, in reference to his nickname for Tech's cozy Lane Stadium.

How might all this impact the game? I don't think it will bother the 'Noles at all. If they can overcome the eardrum-rattling bedlam of the Swamp, the Hokie hollering won't faze them. However, having the crowd behind them could make the Tech players more comfortable with the whole unfamiliar national title game circus.

Tech has an unparalleled penchant for creating a quick landslide, burying opponents with big plays (mostly on defense and special teams). They've done this mostly at home, and if the raucous crowd makes them feel at home, it could help.

It certainly helped underdog Alabama crush Miami here in the '93 Sugar Bowl and didn't hurt the Gators' chances against FSU three years ago.

Of course, it can also have zero impact. The Buckeye majority was quickly silenced by FSU's defensive dominance here two seasons ago. The Hokies need to make good things happen to utilize this edge.

Hokies seem fresh; Seminoles confident
At their walk-through Monday afternoon, the Hokies all said they still felt fresh after practicing on the grass fields at Tulane all week. The Seminoles canceled their final workout. Tech's guys certainly didn't seem tight, but that doesn't mean much.

Often, teams look real loose until they come out for warmups for the title game.

FSU's guys maintain that they played tight last year against Tennessee, largely because they were unsure about the readiness of inexperienced emergency starting quarterback Marcus Outzen. They certainly played tight, and soon began pointing fingers in the offensive huddle when things broke down. Peter Warrick spent a good bit of the game pouting about not being able to get the football. The skill players and offensive linemen got after each other, which was disastrous.

That will not happen this time. Not with "old man" Chris Weinke leading them. He'll have command of the huddle, and besides, this year's FSU team is, I'm told, much more cohesive than last year's. The Seminoles have preached their hunger ... their confidence ... their readiness. Now it's time to show it.

The quarterbacks
The quarterback matchup is as compelling as it gets: 27-year-old pocket passer versus 19-year-old multi-threat phenom, both in their first title game.

FSU's Weinke has waited nine years for this chance, six years riding the bus in the Blue Jays' farm system. If he wins, he goes pro. No doubt in my mind. If he loses, he still might go.

Nine years ago, Virginia Tech's Michael Vick was a 10-year old pup, who already had a gun for an arm that amazed kids in his neighborhood.

Both carry an enormous burden in their offenses. Especially if you believe, as I do, that Virginia Tech will not simply move Corey Simon and Jerry Johnson aside and pound away with up-the-middle runs. A meager inside running game means Vick will have to create big plays on the option or with his left arm.

Vick may be the nation's most efficient passer, but he was not very efficient when opponents forced him to throw. In the two games that Tech attempted more than 17 passes, Vick was under 50 percent in both, including his 1-for-10 start at West Virginia. If Shyrone Stith and Andre Kendrick aren't squirming through creases in the FSU interior line, it could be a long night for the Hokies. FSU defensive coaches mostly fear the broken play, something you can't plan for. In nine of Vick's ten games, he's had a scramble of 20 yards or longer. That's a pretty amazing stat, creating big plays with that consistency.

I don't think Vick will wilt under the heat of the 'Noles' defense, which will try to intimidate him just the same way the Tech defense would go after a freshman QB: by jawing at him and hitting him as often as possible, even if it means surrendering a play or two ... or a 15-yard personal foul, for that matter.

Keys
1) Tackling by Tech's linebackers and defensive backs. The Hokies must prevent 6-yard passes from becoming 40-yard gains. Warrick and Ron Dugans and "Snoop" Minnis will have ample chances to bust big plays on the Tech secondary. If they are tackled well, FSU will have to march the field slowly, and that has been very tough to do against Tech. Something to watch is second-half tackling. Corey Moore told me the Tech LB's are prepared to play every snap, without much rotation of backups. Jamel Smith and Michael Hawkes had better be ready for a four-hour war on the rug. Fatigue makes poor tacklers of many a great player.

2) Tech must run. As I said before, this is a run-oriented team that succeeds throwing mainly as a surprise tactic against defenses stacked for ground support. Making the 'Noles defend the width of the field, and stretching them deep with Andre Davis is key.

3) Davis must get off the line of scrimmage jams of the FSU corners. Not having split end Ricky Hall will hurt. Tech's depth at wide receiver is not that good. Hall's absence as a punt returner is even more important. He broke open the Miami game with his touchdown return and had one called back against Syracuse.

4) Depth. FSU uses far more players. Tech uses as few players as any team that's played in a title game since, perhaps, single-platoon football. Title games are long, drawn-out affairs that seem to take forever, and when you add the "dome factor" which seems to sap energy more than an outdoor stadium, it could be a factor. The 'Noles tell me that depth and conditioning are the reasons why they are so dominant in the second half. This is a truly amazing stat: In the last four games, opponents have converted exactly one third-down play against FSU in the second half! Out of 28 attempts. I've never heard of a third-down stat like that in my life.

And the winner is ...
Normally, I leave the predictions to Corso and Herbstreit. But since I have an almost perfect record picking the ten "national title" games I've covered, I'll give it a shot.

FSU wins. The Seminoles' X-factor (Warrick) is a senior who could not possibly be more motivated than he is after two failures in title games, a career without scoring a TD in a bowl game, and snubbings from the Heisman and Belitnikoff voters. Depth and Warrick win out, in a close, low-scoring game.

Hope you'll join us Tuesday night from the floor of the dome for our pregame coverage before ABC takes over. That's it. I'm off to Bourbon Street again.

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