It's hard to believe the number of fans who are already clamoring for "Bracketology." Regular readers know this feature as the time we begin
projecting the NCAA Tournament field.
While it may be true that my three favorite letters are R-P-I, trust me
when I say it is way too soon to think about March. For instance, Toledo
holds the No. 1 ranking in the current RPI Report (published by
Collegiate Basketball News, it is the only true RPI data available to
the public).
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Stat of the Week
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It is so easy to wax nostalgic at holiday time, when every conversation is legally required to include at least one mention of the good ol' days. Well, in college basketball's good ol' days, there was this dirty trick known as the two-point basket.
How quickly these teams forget:
Fewest 2-point FGs
5: Wisconsin
(at Temple, Dec. 14)
5: Princeton
(at Monmouth, Nov. 25)
6: SE Louisiana
(at Mississippi, Dec. 13)
6: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
(at Illinois, Dec. 6)
6: Citadel
(at William & Mary, Dec. 2)
6: Air Force
(vs. Houston, Nov. 16)
7: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
(at Wisconsin, Dec. 16)
7: BYU
(vs. Southern Utah, Dec. 14)
Even more amazing than these incredibly low numbers is that three of the
teams listed here (Wisconsin, Air Force, and BYU) actually won the game.
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Nothing against the Rockets, who may win the Mid-American Conference
and, or secure an at-large spot in the NCAA bracket, but I don't know
anyone who believes Toledo will be an RPI top 10 team two months from
now. As we like to remind people, December RPI numbers are like April
batting averages. They are for amusement only.
But thanks for asking. You can look for the first ESPN.com bracket
projections in mid- to late-January.
Now, just because we cannot intelligently project the NCAA field doesn't mean we can't analyze the early-season performances of individual teams. My very unscientific analysis suggests the following distinctions so far this season:
BIGGEST OVERACHIEVER
Wake Forest.
BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVER
Massachusetts.
You may have your own candidate(s) in each category, but it is hard to argue against either of these teams as strong nominees. Let's start with Wake.
The Demon Deacons were a losing team (7-9) in their own conference last
year. And, even though that conference was named the ACC, it sent a very
un-ACC-like three teams to the NCAAs.
Wake did rebound to win the NIT, and the return of five starters was cause for justifiable optimism this season. But not even Billy Packer would have forecast an 8-0 start (with wins over Michigan, Kansas and Georgia) and a No. 6 national ranking.
While much of Wake Forest's improvement has been linked to the move of Robert O'Kelley away from the point guard position, our research uncovered more shifts in team performance than could be attributed to any single player. Take a look at Wake's comparative stats:
| Wake Forest |
1999-2000 |
2000-2001 |
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Points Per Game
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69.8
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80.4
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Field Goal Percentage
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43.4
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52.4
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Field Goal Defense
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40.6
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35.1
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3-Point Shooting
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30.9
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36.9
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3-Point Defense
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32.0
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25.7
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FT Percentage
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67.4
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72.0
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Rebound Margin
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Plus-6
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Plus-5.9
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Assists Per Game
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13.3
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18.5
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Turnover Margin
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Minus-0.5
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Plus-4.5
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Steals Per Game
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6.1
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9.0
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Blocks Per Game
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4.2
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6.1
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Unlike Wake Forest, Massachusetts lost two starters (forwards Chris Kirkland and Mike Babul) from last season. But an infusion of young talent was supposed to lift the Minutemen back to the NCAAs after a
two-year absence. That and the presence of fifth-year senior guard Monty
Mack had many experts suggesting UMass might dethrone Temple in the
Atlantic 10.
Well, the Minutemen are 2-7 and circling the wagons around embattled
coach Bruiser Flint. A team that was barely above average last winter
has taken more hits this year than the Electoral College.
Numbers don't lie:
| UMass |
1999-2000 |
2000-2001 |
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Points Per Game
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68.6
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65.9
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Field Goal Percentage
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42.9
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39.8
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Field Goal Defense
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41.2
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43.4
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3-Point Shooting
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33.9
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30.4
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FT Percentage
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65.0
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63.3
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Rebound Margin
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Minus-2.6
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Minus-4.0
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Turnover Margin
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Plus-2.4
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Minus-0.8
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So much for "Refuse to Lose."
Right margin, wrong score
Although complete data is not yet available from the NCAA, team scoring appears to be up during the 2000-01 campaign. Certainly the number of truly low-scoring games continues to drop.
And then came Saturday: Michigan State 46, Kentucky 45.
Most observers were highly critical of this contest. It reminded some of
the Spartans' 53-41 victory over Wisconsin in last year's Final Four.
Any minute now, someone will probably run the tape of the infamous North
Carolina-Virginia ACC title game. That snooze-fest led to the shot
clock, increased calls for three-point shooting and other wacky
proposals.
Everything except Prop 48 was seemingly blamed on that one game.
Let's hope cooler heads prevail this time. Yes, Michigan State posted
the second-lowest winning score of the season. Yes, the combined 91
points were fourth-lowest of the year. No, the Hall of Fame in
Springfield isn't likely to play this game on a continuous loop in its
lobby.
But nobody did anything wrong. The ball just didn't go in the basket.
Two teams known for differing (but very effective) defensive styles each
forced the other into sub-40 percent shooting. Get over it.
State's Charlie Bell had a horrible shooting day, making just 1 of 11 shots from the field and 1 of 7 from behind the 3-point arc. But
he produced eight assists, seven rebounds and two steals against only
one turnover. In a low-scoring game, that amounts to a winning player.
Each team had 16 assists on its 18 field goals, an Assist-to-FG ratio of
nearly .900 (.888). These are among the top single-game figures of the
year and represent smart team basketball under trying conditions.
In other words, only really good teams would be able to post such numbers
when the all isn't dropping.
We already knew Michigan State was really good. It says here that
Kentucky is, too.
Since we're on the subject, what are the lowest- and highest-scoring games of the year? This is especially timely considering that the weekend past produced two of the leaders in each category.
| Lowest Scoring Games |
Highest Scoring Games |
87: Columbia at Lehigh, Dec. 11
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213: Howard at Georgetown, Dec. 16
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90: Rutgers at Princeton, Dec. 14
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213: N. Texas at Texas A&M-C.C., Dec. 2
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91: Kentucky at Michigan State, Dec. 16
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213: VCU at Texas A&M, Dec. 2
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94: Arkansas-L.R. at Marquette, Dec. 9
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213: Brown at Wagner, Nov. 17
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94: William & Mary at VaTech, Nov. 20
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208: TCU vs. Minnesota, Nov. 25
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95: Jacksonville at High Point, Dec. 9
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202: TCU vs. Siena, Nov. 24
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Perfect ... and imperfect performances
It's been a while since we looked at individual player box score lines. Here are my nominees for the top 10 single-game performances of December:
Theron Smith, Ball State (vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 8):
16-26 FG, 4-5 3PT, 4-4 FT, 12 REB, 3 STL, 1 AST, 40 PTS, 37 MIN.
Jason Williams, Duke (at Temple, Dec. 2):
10-12 FG, 8-10 3PT, 2-2 FT, 3 AST, 2 REB, 30 PTS, 34 MIN
Todd Billet, Rutgers (vs. James Madison, Dec. 2):
11-14 FG, 5-8 3PT, 10-11 FT, 3 AST, 2 REB, 37 PTS, 40 MIN
Ron Williamson, Howard (at Georgetown, Dec. 16):
13-22 FG, 11-17 3PT, 4-6 FT, 4 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL, 41 PTS, 38 MIN
Adam Fellers, Campbell (vs. Jacksonville State-OT, Dec. 4):
11-20 FG, 6-13 3PT, 7-8 FT, 4 AST, 3 STL, 35 PTS, 43 MIN
Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall (vs. Norfolk State, Dec. 4):
8-12 FG, 5-6 FT, 12 REB, 10 BLK, 1 AST, 21 PTS, 27 MIN
Joe Crispin, Penn State (vs. Pitt, Dec. 6):
13-22 FG, 7-9 3PT, 3-5 FT, 5 AST, 3 STL 1 PF, 36 PTS, 34 MIN
Kevin Houston, St. Bonaventure (vs. Siena, Dec. 13):
8-15 FG, 4-7 3PT, 12-13 FT, 8 REB, 1 STL, 0 TO, 32 PTS, 29 MIN
Darius Rice, Miami (vs. Central Florida, Dec. 9):
11-19 FG, 6-9 3PT, 7-8 FT, 4 REB, 1 AST, 35 PTS, 32 MIN
Leon Brisport, Stony Brook (at Columbia, Dec. 9):
7-10 FG, 21-25 FT, 13 REB, 35 PTS, 38 MIN
These five guys, meanwhile, should expect some coal in their stockings:
Rasual Butler, La Salle (vs. Seton Hall, Dec. 2):
5-29 FG, 2-12 3PT, 1-2 FT, 14 REB, 4 TO, 3 PF, 2 AST, 13 PTS, 37 MIN
Kevin Braswell, Georgetown (at Louisville, Dec. 5):
1-11 FG, 0-3 3PT, 4-7 FT, 9 AST, 5 PF, 4 STL, 3 TO, 6 PTS, 31 MIN
Tony Akins, Georgia Tech (vs. Georgia, Dec. 7):
1-12 FG, 0-7 3PT, 0-0 FT, 6 AST, 2 PTS, 26 MIN
Monte Mack, UMass (vs. Connecticut, Dec. 12):
0-9 FG, 0-6 3PT, 3-4 FT, 2 AST, 1 TO, 3 PTS, 29 MIN
Imari Sawyer, DePaul (vs. Kansas, Dec. 12):
4-17 FG, 2-9 3PT, 4-7 FT, 8 AST, 5 TO, 14 PTS, 40 MIN
Box Score Banter
On Friday, check out the full "Box Score Banter" for more E-mails and responses. Remember, it's the part of this column when your E-mail thoughts, insights, suggestions, etc. have a forum (jlunardi@home.com). It's also your chance to see your name in cyberspace. Some of the early-season responses have been priceless:
"Great column! Get ready to hold your nose while I tell you about the
Dec. 9 game between William & Mary and my alma mater, American U. W&M
shot 28 percent, while AU shot 32 percent.
Some of the outstanding performances that night included Tom Strobehn
0-4, Sherman Rivers 0-12, Jernavis Draughn 0-5, Ronald Hearns 0-8, and
Brian Williams 0-3. Those five guys were a combined 0-for-32!
By the way, American won, 54-50. As a team, AU is shooting 55 percent
from the foul line. Is anyone doing worse?"
-- Tom Klitus
Through eight games now, the Purple Eagles are still hovering at 55.3
percent from the line. We've not found anyone lower ... yet!
Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com. He is also
contributing editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook,
www.collegebaskets.com. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.
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