ESPN.com - ncb - Numbers filter out early frauds from favorites

	Stat of the Week
	Remember our friends at Arkansas-Pine Bluff? The Golden Lions (1-10) finally have a win, but have still lapped the field with the most lopsided scoring margin per game in the country. Three other "contenders" have some serious catching up to do:
	Arkansas-P.B.	-37.0
	Prairie View A&M	-23.2
	Md.-E. Shore	-22.7
	Grambling	-22.0

Reading this week's "Sweet 16" selections on ESPN.com got me to thinking. Even though we won't project the full 64-team NCAA field until Jan. 22, it is never too early to suggest who can (or cannot) win the national championship on April 2.

Let's assume for a moment the actual champion will come from ESPN.com's group of teams. And, just to be safe, let's add to these 16 another four teams who have been highly ranked at some point this year, or who have played themselves into the national picture.

So, going way out on a limb here, we are saying the 2001 national champion will come from the following list of 20 teams (in alphabetical order):

Arizona, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Mississippi, North Carolina, Syracuse, Stanford, Tennessee, USC, Wake Forest, Wisconsin.

How can we best keep an eye on these teams heading toward March? What statistical comparisons can be made to guide us on which ones are peaking and, or which are declining? Who are the elite? Who are the frauds?

What follows is an in-depth breakdown of what we'll call "The January 20," using statistics charted especially for these teams. It's an adjusted winning percentage, which considers who teams have beaten. Wins over RPI top 50 teams count twice as much, while victories over teams in the top 25 RPI rankings are tripled. Wins over all sub-150 teams (through Jan. 10) don't count.

This stat also punishes teams for losses to sub-100 teams. These losses count double, while a loss to a sub-150 team really hurts -- quadrupling a team's loss total.

We'll re-visit these same 20 teams in the first column of February and the first column of March, comparing now to then (and back again).

	Winning D-I Record	Adjusted Percentage	Adjusted D-I Record	Adjusted Percentage
Stanford	11-0	1.000	16-0	1.000
Georgetown	14-0	1.000	9-0	1.000
Tennessee	15-1	.938	19-1	.950
Duke	14-1	.933	17-1	.944
Wake Forest	13-1	.929	15-1	.938
Michigan State	13-1	.929	12-1	.923
Mississippi	13-1	.929	12-1	.923
Syracuse	14-1	.933	11-1	.917
Kansas	10-1	.909	8-1	.889
Iowa	12-2	.857	13-2	.867
North Carolina	12-2	.857	12-2	.857
Illinois	12-3	.800	16-3	.842
Iowa State	12-2	.857	10-2	.833
Wisconsin	10-3	.769	14-3	.824
Florida	11-2	.846	8-2	.800
UConn	12-2	.846	7-2	.700
USC	11-2	.846	7-3	.700
Arizona	7-5	.583	10-5	.667
Seton Hall	10-3	.769	5-3	.625
Maryland	11-4	.733	5-4	.556

This is a crude measurement, to be sure, but quite effective in confirming the apparent national elite. No one would argue with Stanford, Tennessee, Duke, Wake Forest and Michigan State appearing at or near the top of these rankings.

Only Georgetown, aided by its presumably temporary undefeated status, is a real anomaly with regard to Adjusted Winning Percentage. And, due to nine sub-150 wins, the Hoyas will drop considerably if and when they suffer their first loss.

Also note the adjustments made at the bottom of the list to Arizona and Maryland. The Wildcats, despite a marginal won-loss record, gain a seemingly sensible 84 points in Adjusted Winning Percentage. The Terps, without a single RPI top 50 win, lose a whopping 177 points -- the largest adjustment in either direction for any of "The January 20".

Now lets move on to the "offensive quotient" of these 20 teams.

It's one thing to score a bunch of points. But how much is a team scoring above or below what its opponents typically allow? This isn't scoring margin, but the incremental offensive advantage (or disadvantage) for any team against a given set of opponents.

For example, if Duke scores 12 points more than North Carolina A&T typically allows, that represents a significant incremental offensive advantage. The opposite would be true if Duke scored 12 fewer points than North Carolina A&T allows.

	Average Ppg	Opponents Ppg Allowed	Offensive Quotient
Duke	93.8	61.9	+24.7 ppg
Florida	91.3	71.4	+19.9 ppg
Tennessee	86.5	68.8	+19.7 ppg
Maryland	93.1	74.3	+18.8 ppg
Florida	91.3	71.4	+19.7 ppg
Syracuse	79.9	61.5	+18.4 ppg
Iowa State	83.8	67.6	+16.2 ppg
Kansas	85.0	69.9	+15.1 ppg
USC	82.5	67.4	+15.1 ppg
Arizona	81.0	66.4	+14.6 ppg
Wake Forest	81.8	69.4	+12.4 ppg
Michigan State	84.0	72.7	+11.3 ppg
Stanford	85.3	71.9	+13.4 ppg
North Carolina	79.2	68.8	+10.4 ppg
Seton Hall	82.9	73.0	+9.9 ppg
Illinois	80.5	71.9	+8.6 ppg
Iowa	77.1	68.1	+8.2 ppg
Georgetown	83.7	75.9	+7.8 ppg
UConn	80.4	74.7	+5.7 ppg
Mississippi	76.0	72.4	+3.6 ppg
Wisconsin	60.3	66.3	-6.0 ppg

Now, to be fair to Wisconsin in particular ... let's look at the "defensive quotient," which is simply the reverse of "offensive quotient." We'll measure the incremental defensive advantage of one team versus a given set of opponents.

	Average Ppg Allowed	Opponents Average Ppg	Offensive Quotient
Wisconsin	55.3	73.0	+17.7 ppg
Stanford	62.2	76.2	+14.0 ppg
Michigan State	62.5	76.3	+13.8 ppg
Wake Forest	58.2	71.3	+13.1 ppg
Mississippi	62.5	75.3	+12.8 ppg
Kansas	68.6	78.4	+9.8 ppg
Illinois	68.7	76.8	+8.1 ppg
Georgetown	63.5	70.7	+7.2 ppg
Arizona	70.3	77.1	+6.8 ppg
Florida	64.8	71.3	+6.5 ppg
Syracuse	65.4	71.7	+6.3 ppg
Iowa	69.5	75.5	+6.0 ppg
Iowa State	68.0	73.9	+5.9 ppg
Duke	67.6	72.4	+4.8 ppg
Tennessee	73.8	77.7	+3.9 ppg
Maryland	71.3	74.5	+3.2 ppg
North Carolina	68.4	71.2	+2.8 ppg
UConn	70.9	73.3	+2.4 ppg
Seton Hall	76.6	76.6	+/-0.0
USC	71.7	71.4	-0.3 ppg

And finally, we come to the "adjusted scoring margin." This category combines the offensive and defensive quotients for that team. It is a much more accurate representation of a team's relative strength (or weakness) vs. its own schedule.

Non-adjusted scoring margin is certainly of value -- if your team wins by 25 points per game, it's probably pretty good. But adjusted scoring margin puts that team in the truer context of its opposition. In other words, did your team overachieve, or underachieve, against the hand it was dealt?

	Scoring Margin	Offensive Quotient	Defensive Quotient	Adjusted Scoring Margin
Duke	26.2 ppg	+24.7	+4.8	29.5 ppg
Stanford	23.1 ppg	+13.4	+14.0	27.4 ppg
Florida	26.5 ppg	+19.9	+6.5	26.4 ppg
Wake Forest	23.6 ppg	+12.4	+13.1	25.2 ppg
Michigan State	21.5 ppg	+11.3	+13.8	25.1 ppg
Kansas	16.4 ppg	+15.1	+9.8	24.9 ppg
Syracuse	14.5 ppg	+18.4	+6.3	24.7 ppg
Tennessee	12.7 ppg	+19.7	+3.9	23.6 ppg
Iowa State	15.8 ppg	+16.2	+5.9	22.1 ppg
Maryland	21.8 ppg	+18.8	+3.2	22.0 ppg
Arizona	10.7 ppg	+14.6	+6.8	21.4 ppg
Illinois	11.8 ppg	+8.6	+8.1	16.7 ppg
Mississippi	13.5 ppg	+3.6	+12.8	16.4 ppg
Georgetown	20.2 ppg	+7.8	+7.2	15.0 ppg
USC	10.8 ppg	+15.1	-0.3	14.8 ppg
Iowa	7.6 ppg	+8.2	+6.0	14.2 ppg
North Carolina	10.8 ppg	+10.4	+2.8	13.2 ppg
Wisconsin	5.0 ppg	-6.0	+17.7	11.7 ppg
Seton Hall	6.3 ppg	+9.9	+/-0.0	9.9 ppg
UConn	9.5 ppg	+5.7	+2.4	8.1 ppg

So, what have we learned from all these numbers? Well, measuring "The January 20" in these new categories suggests the following (in no particular order):

Don't give up the ship at Arizona.

Syracuse and Kansas may be even better than we think.

I've been dead-on (so far) in calling Connecticut the most overrated team among true national contenders.

UConn may not even belong on these lists, along with Seton Hall and maybe Maryland. In retrospect, perhaps Virginia, Cincinnati and/or Alabama should have been included. We'll know for sure in a month or so.

Duke, Florida and Tennessee -- especially Duke -- are every bit as good offensively as they appear on television. And Wisconsin is that much worse.

Does it surprise anyone that Wisconsin, Stanford and Michigan State rank 1-2-3 in "defensive quotient"? It's a good thing for the Badgers, too, whose "offensive quotient" is the only significant negative on any of these lists.

Stanford and Michigan State are the most balanced teams (offensively and defensively) in the land.

Duke, Stanford, Wake Forest and Michigan State are the true national elite. Florida, which ranks with them in "adjusted scoring margin," has overindulged on patsies.

Kansas, Syracuse and Tennessee are "the next wave."

USC (not enough defense) and Wisconsin (not enough offense) cannot win the national championship.

The Big East (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Connecticut) is probably a paper tiger.

Maryland is a fraud.

Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com. He is also contributing editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, www.collegebaskets.com. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.

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