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 Tuesday, May 16
Knight in the NCAA Tournament
 
 By Greg Collins
ESPN.com

Some feel what Indiana coach Bob Knight does off the court shouldn't matter -- he's a basketball coach who's paid to win basketball games.

But while no one can argue against Knight's 763 career victories or three national titles, a look at Indiana's recent performances in the NCAA Tournament raises a few questions about Knight's coaching ability in big games.

First, the nuts and bolts: Knight has a 43-21 record over 24 NCAA Tournament appearances and has won three NCAA titles. He has taken Indiana to the Final Four two other times, losing in the national semifinals each time.

However, Indiana has not made it to the Sweet 16 nor been seeded better than No. 6 since 1994. That's a good point to split our examination of Knight's tournament performances -- first we'll examine the days of Indiana as a tournament favorite, then the recent years of Indiana as a middle-of-the-pack entry.

One note of clarification: The NCAA Tournament did not begin seeding teams until 1979. Before that period, it is statistically impossible to determine if Indiana overachieved or underachieved in the postseason. Knight's tourney record from 1973-1978 was an impressive 11-3 with one national title (one victory came in a Final Four consolation game, which the NCAA stopped playing in 1982).

It was that stretch in which Knight built much of his winning reputation. However, the game has changed since then, and because of that and the inability to rate those seasons statistically, we will leave them out of our study.

Indiana as a protected seed
From 1979 to 1994, a Knight-coached Indiana team received a No. 1 seed twice (1987 and 1993), five No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds and two No. 4 seeds. Those are 11 "protected" seeds (meaning if seeding holds, the team is supposed to make it to the Sweet 16) in 14 possible NCAA Tournaments (Indiana did not make the field in 1979 and 1985).

Of those 11 tournaments, the Hoosiers lost before their seed was predicted to bow out of the field eight times. That means only three times did Indiana reach the level it was expected to, albeit two of those years were NCAA title seasons.

Of the eight "underachieving" seasons as a protected seed, four of those losses came to teams seeded No. 6 or worse. The two most embarrassing losses were first-round defeats as a No. 3 seed (to No. 14 Cleveland State in 1986) and a No. 4 seed (to No. 13 Richmond in 1988). Not exactly the stuff of a coaching legend.

Over that span, Indiana was upset 10 times, although it needs to be said that five of those losses came to teams seeded a mere one slot below the Hoosiers. Indiana pulled five upsets of its own, three of which came against teams seeded one spot above the Hoosiers. Indiana's biggest tournament "upset" from 1979 to 1994 came in 1984 when the No. 4-seeded Hoosiers defeated No. 1 North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

Indiana in the middle of the pack
Since 1995, the NCAA Tournament road has been much more bumpy for the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn't received anything better than a No. 6 seed, which it earned three times over that six-year span. Because of that, Indiana has been expected to win fewer tournament games based strictly on seeding, but even with lowered expectations, the Hoosiers have had trouble in the postseason.

Indiana has advanced past the first round only twice in the last six years despite being a "favored" seed five times -- as a No. 7 in 1998, when the Hoosiers defeated No. 10 Oklahoma in overtime; and as a No. 6 in 1999, when they beat No. 11 George Washington.

The Hoosiers have also felt the sting of the first-round upset three times -- twice as a No. 6 losing to a No. 11 (1996 and 2000), and once as a No. 8 to a No. 9 (1997).

Perhaps the most damning evidence against Knight and the Hoosiers is at no point over the last six years has the team advanced farther than its seed predicted.

The Hoosiers as a whole
Combining the two periods, you get the following statistical breakdown:

  • Indiana's average NCAA Tournament seed: 4.3
  • Average seed of team which eliminated Indiana: 6.8
  • Number of teams upset by Indiana, according to seeds: 5
  • Number of times Indiana was upset, according to seeds: 13
  • Average seed differential of upsets pulled by Indiana: 1.6
  • Average seed differential of upsets suffered by Indiana: 3.6

    Five upsets over 20 years isn't a great ratio, but it's not that bad. But what Indiana did following up some of those upsets again tarnishes its accomplishments. After defeating No. 4 Temple in 1994, the fifth-seeded Hoosiers promptly lost to No. 9 Boston College in the next round. In 1984, No. 4 Indiana celebrated its upset of No. 1-ranked North Carolina (a team that included Michael Jordan, Sam Perkins and Brad Daugherty) by losing its next game to No. 7 Virginia in the regional final.

    Indiana hasn't pulled an upset in the NCAA Tournament since 1994 and hasn't reached a Final Four since 1992. Some might argue that, with more players leaving college early for the NBA, a program like Indiana which usually keeps its players for four years would flourish due to such stability. Instead, it has been just the opposite.

    Only two other men -- John Wooden and Adolph Rupp -- have won as many NCAA titles as Bob Knight and only Dean Smith took more teams (27) to the tournament than The General. That sort of success can hide being on the losing end of 13 upsets in 20 seasons. When it comes to remembering Knight, both should be included in his legacy.

    Greg Collins is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com.
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