| | If you think a California freeway is crowded, just try advancing through
the middle of a major conference to an NCAA at-large bid. This year's
list of bubble teams is especially noteworthy in the Big 12, Big East and
Conference USA.
The Big 12 places six teams in the field this week, all with "true" seeds
of four or five. Two teams, Missouri and Kansas, fell to No. 6 seeds on
this projection due to intra-conference bracketing guidelines. Yet it
seems unlikely all six of these teams can remain so high given the amount
of times they face one another down the stretch of the regular season.
The Big East and Conference USA are even more treacherous for middle-of-the-pack teams.
NCAA contenders in those conferences are fighting not only for seeding, but
also for their postseason lives.
By our count, up to nine teams in each conference have at least a puncher's
chance for an NCAA bid. Obviously not all will make it, nor are their
leagues strong enough to merit that kind of depth in the eventual 64-team
field. But it is rare indeed that so many "bubble" teams are still alive
at this stage of February.
West Region
March 16, 2000/Salt Lake City, Utah
(1) Stanford vs. (16) TAAC/Troy State
(8) Illinois vs. (9) Seton Hall
(5) Tulsa vs. (12) BIG WEST/Utah State
(4) Oklahoma State vs. (13) MCC/Cleveland State
March 16, 2000/Tucson, Ariz.
(3) Auburn vs. (14) NEC/Central Connecticut State
(6) Utah vs. (11) Miami, Fla.
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Pepperdine
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington
Midwest Region
March 16, 2000/Cleveland
(1) Cincinnati vs. (16) SWAC/Southern
(8) Kent vs. (9) North Carolina
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) MVC/Indiana State
(4) Texas vs. (13) IVY/Pennsylvania
March 16, 2000/Minneapolis
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) OVC/Southeast Missouri State
(6) Missouri vs. (11) UNLV
(7) St. John's vs. (10) California
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) SLC/Texas-San Antonio
East Region
March 17, 2000/Winston-Salem, N.C.
(1) Duke vs. (16) MID-CONT/Youngstown State
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Southern California
(5) Iowa State vs. (12) A-EAST/Hofstra
(4) Florida vs. (13) MAAC/Siena
March 17, 2000/Buffalo, N.Y.
(3) Connecticut vs. (14) CAA/James Madison
(6) Purdue vs. (11) St. Bonaventure
(7) LSU vs. (10) DePaul
(2) Arizona vs. (15) PATRIOT/Lafayette
South Region
March 17, 2000/Nashville, Tenn.
(1) Syracuse vs. (16) MEAC/South Carolina State
(8) Oregon vs. (9) North Carolina State
(5) Temple vs. (12) MAC/Akron
(4) Oklahoma vs. (13) SUN BELT/Louisiana-Lafayette
March 17, 2000/Birmingham, Ala.
(3) Indiana vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Appalachian State
(6) Kansas vs. (11) Marquette
(7) Maryland vs. (10) Fresno State
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Radford
Blue Ribbon bits
Teams preceded by their conference name in ALL CAPS are the current
league (or RPI) leaders. Teams from multiple-bid conferences, or who would
earn an at-large bid regardless of their league position, are listed
without such a prefix.
The Mountain West and WAC are without automatic bids this season.
Thus, there are only 29 conferences (instead of the maximum 30) which will
place an automatic qualifier into the NCAA field this year.
Please note that Syracuse (East) and Texas (South) cannot be placed in
their respective regions, as each host a regional final this year. Another
bracketing note: Cleveland State, the current leader of the Midwestern
Collegiate Conference, may not play in Cleveland as a host school in the
Midwest Region.
Who's hot? The following projected tourney teams are 10-0 in their last
10 games: Central Connecticut State, Cincinnati, Duke, Gonzaga and
Syracuse. Long Beach State is also 10-0 in its last 10 starts, but did not
quite make the cut this week.
Looking for impressive wins? Arizona (5-1) and Kentucky (5-4) own the
most victories against RPI Top 25 competition. Another tell-tale statistic
this time of year is a team's road record. Duke (7-0), Gonzaga (8-0),
Stanford (7-0) and Syracuse (6-0) remain perfect away from home.
Speaking of Syracuse, it will be interesting to see what a series of
difficult upcoming games does to the Orangemen's strength of schedule. This
week, the Orangemen have only the 135th-ranked schedule in the nation (and
an even less impressive non-conference schedule rank of No. 269).
Pay even less attention than usual to the polls when evaluating Kentucky.
With an RPI of No. 2, a schedule ranked toughest in the nation and the
current lead in the SEC standings, figure the Wildcats for a much higher
seed than the polls would suggest.
Did you know? The Mid-Continent Conference, as of Feb. 6, did not
have a single team with a winning Division I record.
Hard to believe, but it has been 15 years since Rollie Massimino coached
Villanova to the "perfect game" national championship over Georgetown.
This season, Massimino's Cleveland State Vikings have the inside track on
an automatic NCAA bid from the Midwestern Collegiate Conference (with,
ironically, both Villanova and Georgetown on the "bubble" at best).
One familiar name missing from this week's projection is UCLA. The
Bruins, for the moment, have played their way off the chart with a 3-6
conference record and 4-6 mark in their last 10 games.
Moving up (alphabetical order): Appalachian State, Ball State, California,
Central Connecticut State, Eastern Washington, Lafayette, Fresno State,
Hofstra, James Madison, Michigan State, Pennsylvania, Siena, Southern,
Texas-San Antonio, Utah State.
Going down (alphabetical order): Kent, Radford, Southeast Missouri State, Troy
State, Tulane, Wake Forest, Youngstown State.
Multiple-conference breakdown: Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Big East (5), Big Ten
(5), Pac-10 (5), ACC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Conference USA (3), MAC (2),
Mountain West (2), WAC (2), West Coast (2).
Last four in: California, Marquette, St. Bonaventure, UNLV.
Last four out: Virginia, Notre Dame, UCLA, SMU.
Joe Lunardi can be contacted at "jlunardi@sju.edu". He will also appear Monday nights (10:20 p.m. ET) and Saturday afternoons (2:20 p.m. ET) on ESPN Radio and chat every Friday at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN.com.
To order the adidas Blue Ribbon Tournament Preview, call 1-800-828-HOOP
(4667). This 80-page volume is prepared on Selection Sunday and rushed to
you in time for first-round games. BLUE RIBBON postseason reports -- including new online editions -- are also available at www.collegebaskets.com.
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