ESPN.com - ncb - Too much, too soon for Tar Heels?

Kentucky 93, North Carolina 76
It's not the Kentucky part I want to talk about, even though it is amusing to watch the mainstream media scrambling to get back on the UK bandwagon. To me, three narrow November losses -- two to ranked teams before most schools had even played an exhibition game -- are not enough to push the panic button.


	Did last year's NCAA Tournament run fool the media into ranking the Tar Heels too high to start this season?

But I don't live in Lexington, and my point today is really about North Carolina.

Do you know which major national power had the following preseason resumé?

It scraped into the 2000 NCAA Tournament with a 9-7 conference record.

It was a mediocre 18-13 (.580) prior to its first NCAA game.

It was an unimposing No. 8 seed in the tournament bracket, a seed which many thought was too high given the team's year-long inconsistency.

It got hot at the perfect time, winning four straight games for the only time all season, to reach the Final Four.

Neither the coach nor most important player from this team returned for the 2000-01 campaign.

You know the team in question is North Carolina. I know the team in question is North Carolina. Everyone within range of Dick Vitale's voice knows the team in question is North Carolina.

Yet somehow, because the team is C-A-R-O-L-I-N-A, the media just had to give it a Top 5 ranking and a boarding pass to Minneapolis. When are we going to learn that it doesn't work that way?

Teams that dramatically out-perform their NCAA seeding, then return the same nucleus the following season, are almost inevitably going to fall short of their new expectations. Why? Because those expectations are based on four games, while the prior year's tournament seeding was based on four MONTHS.

Now I'm not saying the current Tar Heels aren't a good team; obviously, they are. All I'm saying is that there was no intelligent basis for calling them a preseason Top 5 team. Take a star point guard (Ed Cota) and accomplished coach (Bill Guthridge, two Final Fours in three years) away from most any other program, and we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

Stat of the Week

You'd think the boys at Harvard would be smart enough to know better. Yet here it is, the worst foul-shooting performance of the season belongs to the Crimson.

Lowest FT Percentage/Single Game

.235 (4-17): Harvard
(at Albany, Dec. 2)

.250 (2-8): Samford
(at Xavier, Nov. 28)

.250 (1-4): St. Peter's
(vs. Seton Hall, Nov. 27)

.286 (2-7): Loyola-Chicago
(at Notre Dame, Nov. 22)

.318 (7-22): Nebraska
(vs. Winthrop, Nov. 27)

.333 (4-12): Sacred Heart
(vs. Rider, Nov. 27)

.333 (2-6): Cal-State Fullerton
(at Oregon State, Nov. 17)

.368 (7-19): American University
(vs. Loyola-Md., Nov. 25)

.375 (6-16): Fordham
(vs. Charlotte, Nov. 17)

.399 (12-30): Texas-San Antonio
(at Kansas State, Nov. 18)

The "lowest" single-game free throw percentage actually belongs to Pittsburgh, which missed its only foul shot against Nebraska on Dec. 2. But we'll not penalize Pitt for not getting fouled enough.

Look at the '97 Arizona Wildcats. Lute Olson's team won the national championship with one of the greatest NCAA Tournament runs of the modern era, defeating three No. 1 seeds (Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky) along the way. Yet the Wildcats were a No. 4 seed that backed into the tourney with a pair of lackluster regular season losses. They were an above-average team in their own conference.

Our response? Preseason No. 1 status the following year. Arizona's response? Humiliation at the hands of Utah in the 1998 West Regional final.

Heck, this analysis has even applied to Carolina. Dean Smith's Tar Heels won the 1993 NCAA championship, then returned all five starters for the 1993-94 season. UNC was a logical preseason No. 1 choice. Yet that Carolina team, with every conceivable advantage going for it, did not make it beyond the NCAA second round.

So, when the critics attack Matt Doherty & Co. this week, they should really be howling at themselves.

Wisconsin 61, Xavier 46
I've got to admit I have no idea what the ramifications of Dick Bennett's departure will mean for Wisconsin this season. It could turn into a sentimental, "We did it for Coach" story. Or the Badgers could really backslide once the Big Ten schedule begins.

What I do know is that Bennett's successors gave their mentor one heckuva valedictory on Saturday. The opponent, Xavier, has been among the nation's highest-scoring teams for almost every season of the Pete Gillen-Skip Prosser era. The Musketeers were the coaches' choice to win what appears to be a resurgent Atlantic 10 this year. The Badgers were coming off the emotional win over Maryland and the even more emotional departure of Bennett.

The result? Wisconsin, which held opponents to 55.8 points per game last year, put on another defensive clinic. And Xavier, which has never really learned to apply its high-octane approach on the road, left town to the chants of "overrated."

The Musketeers might be; we just don't know yet. Dick Bennett certainly was not.

Calling their bluff
The readers may have to help me on this; information on the subject has been a little hard to come by. I can't tell you "why" (yet), but I can tell you "what" team has been the absolute worst in Division I so far this season.

Drum roll, please ... the "winner" is Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

The Golden Lions are eligible for the SWAC title and an NCAA bid this season after completing a Division I provisional period. If that happens, at least based on early-season results, I'll walk to Pine Bluff and sing the school song naked at the center of campus.

In 688 Division I games (through Sunday, Dec. 3), only eight have ended in 50-point blowouts. You'll notice the Golden Lions figure all too prominently.

50-plus point blowouts

New Mexico State 113, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51 (Nov. 27)

Arizona 101, St. Mary's 41 (Dec. 2)

Florida 100, Florida Atlantic 42 (Nov. 27)

Alabama 110, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53 (Nov. 25)

Mississippi 98, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47 (Nov. 18)

UTEP 110, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60 (Nov. 29)

St. Joseph's 103, Western Carolina 53 (Nov. 17)

Gonzaga 92, Idaho 42 (Nov. 25)

Against New Mexico State, Arkansas-PB was trailing by 40 points (54-14) at halftime. A mere 45-point loss to Baylor, 85-40, didn't even make the list. For those scoring at home, that's an average margin of defeat of 53 points per game. Good thing the SWAC schedule (Dec. 16.) isn't too far off.

Live by the 3, Die by the 3
Everyone talks about how teams that "live" by the three-pointer often "die" by it. The truth of the matter is that teams can win or lose with all sorts of percentages from the arc. Take a look:

Highest 3-point pct./ Winning team	Highest 3-point pct./ Losing team
.917 (11-12): Drexel (vs. Delaware, Dec. 3)	.667 (10-15): St. Peter's (at Boston College, Nov. 19)
.800 (8-10): Stetson (at Charleston Southern, Nov. 27)	.643 (9-14): Northeastern (at Miami, Nov. 25)
.800 (4-5): E. Washington (vs. Bradley, Nov. 24)	.636 (7-11): Illinois (vs. Duke, Nov. 28)
.769 (10-13): Utah State (vs. South Florida, Nov. 18)	.636 (7-11): Northern Illinois (vs. Belmont, Nov. 18)
.750 (6-8): North Carolina State (at Old Dominion, Dec. 2)	.615 (8-13): Buffalo (vs. Niagara, Nov. 17)
.727 (16-22): Notre Dame (vs. Loyola-Chicago, Nov. 22)	.611 (11-18): Bradley (at USC, Nov. 18)
.727 (8-11): Villanova (vs. Fairfield, Nov. 14)
.714 (5-7): San Diego (vs. Oregon State, Dec. 2)

Lowest 3-point pct./ Winning team	Lowest 3-point pct./ Losing team
.000 (0-10) Tulane (vs. Nicholls State, Nov. 17)	.000 (0-10): Georgia Southern (at Winthrop, Dec. 3)
.083 (1-12): Kansas State (vs. Texas-San Antonio, Nov. 18)	.000 (0-14): Santa Clara (at Pacific, Nov. 22)
.091 (1-11): Jacksonville (at Jacksonville State, Dec. 2)	.040 (1-25): Florida A&M (at Troy State, Nov. 30)
.100 (1-10): St. Joseph's (vs. Old Dominion, Nov. 29)	.042 (1-24): Navy (vs. Rice, Nov. 18)
.100 (1-10): San Francisco (at Appalachian State, Nov. 25)	.059 (1-17): Cincinnati (vs. Notre Dame, Nov. 25)
.100 (1-10): Toledo (at SE Missouri State, Nov. 24)	.063 (1-16): New Mexico State (vs. St. Bonaventure, Nov. 17)
8: Memphis (vs. Temple, Nov. 17)	.071 (1-14): Houston (vs. Air Force, Nov. 16)

Florida A&M (1-for-25) has to get some kind of award for continuing to launch 3-pointers at Troy State. And, if we went a little further on the second list of bricklayers, you wouldn't have to read too closely to notice how Stetson (8-for-10) defeated Charleston Southern on Nov. 27. Stetson made 1 for 10 from behind the arc.

Box Score Banter

On Friday, check out the full "Box Score Banter" for more E-mails and responses. Remember, it's the part of this column when your E-mail thoughts, insights, suggestions, etc. have a forum (jlunardi@home.com). It's also your chance to see your name in cyberspace. Some of the early-season responses have been priceless:

I just got home from the Illinois State at Central Michigan game. What a joke: 64 fouls, enough to tie your season high. I can't stress enough how boring this game was. There was absolutely no continuity. It took forever, and I really like to watch basketball.
I took my niece to her first college basketball game. Do you think she'll ever go back? Someone needs to tell these referees that we don't pay to see them blow their whistles. When something affects the game, yes. But a tiny bump in the backcourt with no loss of possession? At least we got to see Tarise Bryson score 41, including 17 of 18 from the free throw line.
The only thing worse than this kind of game was last week at Toledo, when Detroit got called for 10 fouls to 1 for the home team. I think the Rockets shot 30 free throws to 5 for the visitors. What a joke.
-- Daniel Bauman,
Madison Heights, Mich.

I'm right with you, Dan. And your recall of Detroit-Toledo is pretty sharp. Personal fouls were 22-10, favor Detroit, and free throws were 26-5, favor Toledo. But don't let your niece give up the game just yet!

RPI watch
I promised not to use the initials R-P-I until at least January. However, with some unofficial team RPI data floating around already in cyberspace, let me warn you: Pay no attention. The data sample used to calculate these early season power ratings is so small as to be meaningless.

Don't believe me? A team in the current RPI Top 10 (Ohio University) has only played one game. Enough said.

Conference RPI rankings are another story. We'll be talking about them very soon.

Game notes
What do you think these losing coaches were talking about on the bus ride home? Well, the winning teams were all at home. We're not making this up ...

Loyola-Md. 76, Delaware 72 (Nov. 27): Free-throw differential, Loyola 37-13.
Wright State 92, Alabama A&M 82 (Nov. 27): Free throw differential, Wright State 51-15.
Lafayette 60, Columbia 50 (Nov. 29): Free throw differential, Lafayette 19-2.
Evansville 79, Georgia Southern 72 (Nov. 29): Free throw differential, Evansville 31-4.
Purdue 79, Appalachian State 65 (Dec. 2): Free throw differential, Purdue 41-18.
IUPUI 78, Middle Tennessee State 70 (Dec. 2): Free throw differential, IUPUI 38-3.

Virginia Tech and Syracuse played a "non" Big East game on Dec. 2. The Hokies were scheduled into the Carrier Classic before joining the Big East for the current season. Ironically, the teams do not meet in a conference game this year under the league's new scheduling format.

Mississippi State used a national season-high 17 players in a Nov. 30 victory over Alabama A&M. What I want to know is, how many teams even have 17 players?

Temple's Lynn Greer finally sat down after playing the first 238 minutes of the season.

Joe Lunardi is a regular in-season contributor for ESPN.com. He is also contributing editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, www.collegebaskets.com. Write to Joe at jlunardi@home.com.

ALSO SEE

Chat with Joe Lunardi, Friday at 2 p.m. ET

Nov. 30: Email Banter

ESPN.com: HELP | ADVERTISER INFO | CONTACT US | TOOLS | SITE MAP
Copyright ©2000 ESPN Internet Group. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information are applicable to this site. Employment opportunities at ESPN.com.