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Monday, May 7
Updated: May 9, 1:37 PM ET
Still time to change their minds
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
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One thing has become clear over the past month: just about anyone can declare for the NBA draft. But for those having trouble figuring out their true worth in the draft, reality hits underclassmen in the form of an invite to Marty Blake's pre-draft camp in Chicago.
It's clear to most which players belong in the league and which ones should return to school. But for those underclassmen still on the fence about staying in the draft or returning to school, the list that matters now is the one being drawn up by Blake.
|  | | Kevin Lyde will need summer school to get eligible for next season after returning to Temple. |
An invite from the NBA's director of scouting to participate in his camp for both seniors and underclassmen validates these early-entries' decisions. An invite to the June 6-9 party means certain underclassmen should stay in the draft at least until mid-June. Then, if they can further impress scouts during a number of individual workouts with the teams, they'll hopefully convince a team to take them in the first round.
For the others, it's a reality check.
The deadline to declare is Sunday. And with more than 30 underclassmen already on the early-entry list, a campaign has begun among the schools and the NBA to push a few players back to school.
NBA scouts said last week at the Nike Desert Classic draft camp that the league has more than enough underclassmen in the draft – and the total grew in the week leading up to Sunday's deadline with official announcements from North Carolina's Joseph Forte, St. John's Omar Cook, Seton Hall's Samuel Dalembert and Stanford's Jason Collins. Possible announcements from Memphis signee DaJuan Wagner and Florida signee Kwame Brown would make the first round even richer.
What this all means is players who came out early expecting to go in the first round should think seriously about returning to school. Tito Maddox and Kevin Lyde did and decided to return to Fresno State and Temple, respectively. But there are maybe a dozen underclassmen who still have unrealistic goals of being chosen in the first round.
Quick decisions by players such as DePaul's Bobby Simmons, N.C. State's Damien Wilkins, Pepperdine's Brandon Armstrong, Clemson's Will Solomon and Arizona's Jason Gardner may not have been the best decisions now that so many underclassmen are testing the NBA waters. Alabama's Gerald Wallace could also be added to this list, but also could still play his way into a promise that he would be selected in the first round. That's a real possibility, just like DeShawn Stevenson and Leon Smith were able to do over the last two drafts.
The deadline to return to school is still over a month away (June 20), leaving players with plenty of time to reevaluate their decisions. As long as the players don't sign with an agent, they can withdraw their names up until a week before the June 27 draft. But rumors have circulated that some players listed above have already signed with agents. Unless it's proven and the NCAA is aware of such signings, then it's a non-factor if the players return to school.
The process of returning to school, meanwhile, isn't an exact science, either. Even the players who actually stayed in school instead of withdrawing from the spring semester are nowhere near ready to go back – yet.
All but Lyde stayed in school and for him to return he's got to go to summer school. USC junior Sam Clancy, who declared for the draft on Monday, has the best chance to get into the first round of this group, while Kentucky's Keith Bogans and Tayshawn Prince, Indiana's Kirk Haston and Gardner are still trying to get into the first-round picture.
Kentucky wasn't actually against Prince and Bogans declaring – if it works out the way it did for the Wildcats with Jamaal Magloire. The Wildcats' center declared two years ago, went to Chicago, got humbled and returned to play better as a senior for Kentucky. The Wildcats could be a national contender with a more driven Bogans and Prince.
But the fear that they aren't first-round quality hasn't struck these potential returnees just yet.
"I'm still 75 percent leaving and 25 percent coming back," Gardner said. "I'm still debating. If I play in Chicago then I would be able to see how I do. NBA coaches would give me what I need to work on for next season."
Gardner said he sees a challenge in both decisions. If he returns, then he's got the challenge in front of him of trying to make Arizona a contender should the Wildcats lose four of five starters. If he stays in the draft, then Gardner has to deal with the possibility that he's a likely second-round pick. First-round picks get guaranteed money for three years, can get picked up for a fourth and are a restricted free agent in year five.
Second-round picks don't get guaranteed money. They usually don't get more than a one-year deal and not more than around $350,000.
"Everybody assumes since I was the last one that I was coming out because everyone else was leaving," Gardner said of Arizona teammates and fellow early entry candidates Richard Jefferson, Michael Wright and Gilbert Arenas.
"Some think I'm afraid to come back," Gardner said. "My senior year in high school we lost a bunch of seniors and we ended up top five in the state (of Indiana). I'm not afraid of challenges. We would have a lot of work to do at Arizona. We would be young, but with coach (Lute) Olson we would overcome it."
The biggest fear, if there is one, for these players is becoming the next Terence Morris.
The Maryland senior forward has seen his stock drop from being a lock for the lottery two years ago to possibly sliding out of the NBA draft in June. But the problem for these underclassmen is they're taking more of a gamble. They would likely be second-round picks, not first-round, and give up their chance to be in the first round and get guaranteed money whenever they were draft eligible again. One scout said players who know they're in the first round should go because they may never see that money again.
"There really is no guarantee," Gardner said. "Everyone tells you in this round or that round. But you've got to have confidence in yourself and listen to the right people."
But in the end it will come down to actions.
Gardner doesn't have an invitation to Chicago yet. He doesn't have workouts scheduled yet. He said it's because the teams are waiting for the underclassmen list to be finalized this week. He's not in jeopardy by waiting another month to see if it's worth staying in the draft. However, getting a read on his or the status of other underclassmen in the draft shouldn't be too difficult.
If they haven't guessed it by now, they should know they're not locks for the first round. And being left off Blake's list will make each think twice about staying in the draft.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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