ESPN.com - College Basketball - Forde: Tubby's tenure at Kentucky may be shorter than expected

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 Friday, October 27
Tubby may follow son out of Lexington
 
 By Pat Forde
Special to ESPN.com

LEXINGTON, Ky. -- When the subject is broached, Tubby Smith does a most un-coachly thing. He does not backpedal like Deion Sanders. Evasive maneuvers are at a minimum. Denials do not fill the air.

The subject is Smith's future as the basketball coach at Kentucky. More specifically, it is the speculation that floated home with him from the Sydney Olympics: Smith is contemplating a jump to the National Basketball Association -- and if he jumped, The League might just catch him with open arms.

Tubby Smith
Tubby Smith laughs while talking with reporters during the team's media day. One topic that came up often was his future at Kentucky.

"You've got to be happy about that," Smith said of being considered an attractive NBA coaching candidate. "What else would you want them to say? It's better than them saying the opposite, that they don't like you. It's great to be wanted.

"It's not anything that I'm thinking about. When it's time, it's time. And that time may never come. But I'd never say never."

Smith later modifies those comments slightly, saying "I don't know if there's a better than job than Kentucky." But it does not qualify as classic Coachspeak.

Usually when job rumors percolate, they are vigorously refuted -- even when there's something to them. When the rumors turn out to be true, the coaches usually just shrug and move on.

So Smith's non-denial denial could be construed as disinterest in playing that game -- even if it could hurt recruiting. Or it could be construed as speculation too substantial to refute. Or Smith could be sending a message to a cocksure fan base that has at times treated its championship coach harshly: that it is possible to walk away from UK.

For a populace that came to love seeing the game played at a Pitino's Bombino's tempo, Smith's style of play has been disappointingly deliberate -- to the point of plodding last season. There are two upset losses to arch-rival Louisville; the decision to make his gutty-but-underqualified son, Saul, a two-year starter at point guard; a steady stream of off-court discipline problems; and Kentucky's earliest flameouts in years in the SEC and NCAA tournaments last March to also consider.

And don't forget the fact that fellow Pitino protégé Billy Donovan is running, gunning and winning in the same division.

Add all this together and what you have is more dissatisfaction than any winner of 86 games and an NCAA title in three seasons is accustomed to dealing with.

(The NBA) is not anything that I'm thinking about. When it's time, it's time. And that time may never come. But I'd never say never.
Tubby Smith,
Kentucky head coach

So it's conceivable that Smith could simply walk away. He was reportedly appraised last spring with something ranging from curiosity to lust by three NBA franchises: Atlanta, Washington and New Jersey. He said he wasn't interested in an NBA job then. But there are several pertinent circumstances to consider this time around:

  • Saul Smith's career comes to a close with Kentucky's final game this season. Saul plays with the heart and desire that would make him a fan favorite -- as a backup. As a starter it has been a divisive topic. The numbers from Smith's junior year simply did not compare to the junior seasons for Kentucky's previous four point guards, Sean Woods, Travis Ford, Anthony Epps and Wayne Turner. And the fans know it.

    It would have been borderline cruel for Tubby to leave his son after last season for the NBA. After this year they could leave arm in arm.

  • Smith spent six weeks during an important recruiting time with the U.S. men's Olympic basketball team, giving him ample opportunity to interface with NBA players, coaches and front-office personnel.

  • Smith's lead recruiter, George Felton, just left Kentucky to be an NBA scout at absolute recruiting crunch time.

  • Smith is watching coaches with inferior resumes earn superior pro money. Lon Kruger is being paid $2 million by the Hawks. Leonard Hamilton, who has won three career NCAA Tournament games, is raking it in from the Wizards.

  • Smith's contract, extended in 1998 through 2002-03, hasn't been touched since. He has three years left on the deal. Coaches always seem to be clamoring for a minimum of four years for "job security," but Smith says he is unmoved to approach athletic director Larry Ivy about an extension.

  • Smith simply has not seemed to enjoy the glamourized/pressurized existence in Lexington, where the praise and blame and attention are all doled out in outsized doses. The hero worship comes hand-in-hand with stratospheric expectations and short memories.

    Smith denies dissatisfaction with his job -- "I don't know why people don't think this job is enjoyable," he said -- but he's certainly not got it wrapped around his finger the way Pitino did.

  • Oh, and ESPN's Dick Vitale says he does not believe Smith is spending time maneuvering to land a new job, but agrees that he would be "an attractive guy. He's well-respected and well-liked." An NBA insider who also has ties to the college game says he "would not be surprised at all" to see Smith on the next level next year.

    Of course, a lot can happen between October and April. Kruger and Hamilton could join John Calipari, P.J. Carlesimo, and, yes, Pitino in the conga line of recent college-to-pros flops and sour the market for their former colleagues. Or Smith could win so big that he comes to love it in Lexington.

    But it would be far from shocking to see Tubby Smith contemplating a job change next spring.

    Pat Forde of the Louisville Courier-Journal is a regular contributor to ESPN.com
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