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Monday, March 19
Numbers add up to Elite Eight
ESPN.com
Which teams left have what it takes to win the national title? Like you, ESPN.com has been wondering the same thing for three nearly five months.
In October, everyone looked like a contender on paper. From December through February, some proved their point on the court, while others stumbled. Now, after the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the number of contenders is down to a Sweet 16. But, of those who moved on this past weekend, which really have the stuff to win it all in two week?
When it gets down to games in the Sweet 16, the following five keys always come into play. A point guards must be able to control the game. A team's halfcourt defense must be able to make stops, while on the other end an option inside must be available in crunch time.
Coaches will always is questioned, which means the right decisions must be made. Oh, and good old fashion luck is always a nice bonus.
Here are eight teams ESPN.com thinks can win it all. Eight teams who at least have enough of each of these keys to add up to a title contender on paper in March.
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POINT-GUARD PLAY
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5
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4
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4.5
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4
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3.5
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3
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3.5
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2.5
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Duke: Jason Williams is the best point guard in the country, let alone the top playmaker in the tournament. He's bum ankle is fine after torching Missouri with 31 points.
Arizona: Jason Gardner scored 12 points, had three assists, one turnover and three steals in the win over Butler. Not bad for a national-title contending point.
Illinois: Frank Williams was the Big Ten MVP and that gives the Illini the advantage at this position over every team except Duke. Williams scored 11 points and had 10 rebounds in the win over Charlotte. He had only four assists but only one turnover.
UCLA: Earl Watson has the experience and the court savvy to lead the Bruins to Minneapolis. Watson isn't turning the ball over and he's getting the Bruins into their offense early and often.
Maryland: Steve Blake hasn't been as masterful in this tournament but he's still capable of leading the Terps to the title. He caused problems for Jason Williams -- at times -- when they met and could be a thorn for Kevin Braswell (Georgetown) and Mike McDonald (Stanford).
Stanford: Mike McDonald and Julius Barnes have been criticized for being the weak link on this team. But they keep holding their own and the latest challenge came from Jameer Nelson and St. Joe's. The Achilles Heel was Earl Watson (UCLA) and Jason Gardner (Arizona). It's not their best position but it shouldn't be the difference between winning and losing the title.
Michigan State: The Spartans don't have a clear advantage at this position this season. Charlie Bell is really a two-guard playing the playmaker and he had seven turnovers against Fresno State. Taylor is a pure point and had only one in 23 minutes. They need to take care of the ball if they're going to advance to the title.
Kentucky: Saul Smith and Gerald Fitch have to find Tayshaun Prince and Marquis Estill. If they can do that then they can make up for their deficiencies. For Smith it's his erratic shooting. For Fitch it's his lack of experience.
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INSIDE THREAT
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3.5
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4.5
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3.5
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3
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3.5
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5
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4
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4
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Duke: Carlos Boozer might be back for Thursday's game against UCLA but Shane Battier is starting to go inside more often. He was 12 of 13 from the line against the Tigers -- a sure sign that he intends to battle underneath the boards. But Nate James could be more of a factor. Casey Sanders and Matt Christensen simply need to be defense stoppers.
Arizona: See Michael Wright muscle his way to a basket in the win at Stanford last week. Wright continues to be staple inside and enough of a presence to give the Wildcats a chance. Loren Woods just needs to be a defender and not take bad shots inside.
Illinois: This is a hard one. Brian Cook had a breakthrough game against Charlotte with 16 points but five of his 13 shots were 3s. He doesn't like to bang inside. The Illini need more out of Marcus Griffin, Sergio McClain and Robert Archibald to feel secure about their post production.
UCLA: When Dan Gadzuric wants to be a factor, he's strong enough to give them the balance they need. T.J. Cummings and Matt Barnes could take some of the pressure of Gadzuric.
Maryland: Lonny Baxter has been a staple underneath for the Terps. Baxter was a load against Georgia State, scoring 19 points and grabbing 14 boards. But he's got to make more than 5 of 11 free throws to be reliable.
Stanford: Jason Collins became the better scorer between him and his brother Jarron. The Cardinal can go to Jason inside for a putback or a post-move and feel comfortable with him on the perimeter. He scored 22 against the Hawks and will be tough to stop from this point forward.
Michigan State: The Spartans are better off inside than they were a year ago. Andre Hutson is a reliable threat underneath and had 12 and eight against the Bulldogs. Al Anagonye is a capable complimentary player with 13 Sunday. But the difference has to be Zach Randolph, who had only six against the Bulldogs. If he's a factor in the paint, then the Spartans can own the lane.
Kentucky: Estill emerged as the No. 1 target in the paint. He responded with a monster game against Iowa with 22 points on 9 of 11 shooting. He wasn't dismayed by Reggie Evans and matched his minutes to his points. If he's on target in Philadelphia then the Wildcats have a chance
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COACHING
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5
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4.5
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4
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4
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4
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4.5
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5
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4.5
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Duke: Need we even ask? Mike Krzyzewski's time is in March.
Arizona: Lute Olson won a national title in '97, but if that's not enough he seems just as driven even after suffering a tragic loss when his wife died in January.
Illinois: Bill Self coached Tulsa to the Elite Eight last year and has the Illini on track to get back to the same round. His preaching of toughness is a quotient that might be a difference maker.
UCLA: Criticize Steve Lavin if you want, but at last check he has been to four Sweet 16s in five seasons.
Maryland: Gary Williams gets criticized for not getting to the Final Four, but he's still got the win totals and the overall program success to back up his teaching skills.
Stanford: Mike Montgomery runs a ton of plays, but he's got the experience of going deep in the tourney with an '98 Final Four appearance. He's hungry for one more.
Michigan State: Last time we checked, Tom Izzo won the national title last year and has been in four straight Sweet 16s and two straight Final Fours.
Kentucky: Tubby Smith won a national title in '98 and turned around a team this year that seemed lost and unfocused.
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HALF-COURT DEFENSE
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4
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4
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4
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4
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4
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3.5
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4.5
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3
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Duke: It can be suffocating at times, especially further out on the perimeter. Duke has had its lapses, especially against Maryland and its defense isn't infallible.
Arizona: The Wildcats shut Butler down offensively, limiting them to 23 percent on 3s. Arizona has the talent to pressure and pester in a halfcourt game.
Illinois: The Illini toughness makes them a hard team to score on when they're focused. They've had stretches where they've lapsed defensively. It hasn't come in this tournament, so far.
UCLA: The Bruins shut down Hofstra and Utah State in the halfcourt in the second half. That's good enough for now. Both teams went into second-half funks because the Bruins tough defense, that includes some halfcourt traps.
Maryland: When the Terps want to turn it on, they've got the defense to be a factor in the next two rounds. But that means they've got to be careful with where they gamble in their halfcourt pressure.
Stanford: No one was going to stop Marvin O'Connor Saturday, so don't get discouraged by that effort. The Cardinal do have the halfcourt, disciplined man-to-man set to stifle opponents from here on out.
Michigan State: When its tight, the Spartans play as good a defense in the halfcourt as anyone. Bell and Hutson are two of the best on the ball defenders at their position and give good help defense away from the ball. Fresno State was 2 of 16 on 3s and that's because they didn't get many open looks.
Kentucky: Kentucky can be forgetful at the defensive end and the intensity contributes to some breakdowns in giving up penetration and open looks. Duke or UCLA, two quicker teams, could be tough for the Wildcats to defend in an Elite Eight matchup.
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GOOD OLD LUCK
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3.5
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4
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4.5
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4
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4
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4
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4.5
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4
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Duke: The Blue Devils haven't needed any luck -- yet. But injuries to Boozer and Williams aren't good signs.
Arizona: Arizona didn't need much luck in the first two rounds, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats aren't due for a little in the next two.
Illinois: Haven't been challenged enough to warrant any need for luck. Should be due for some down the road.
UCLA: Getting Utah State in the second round was a nice bonus. Haven't needed to be lucky to win, but they might need a little to get past Duke
Maryland: Already used a little in getting past George Mason in the first round. The Terps were ripe for an upset in the first round but survived a gritty game by the Patriots.
Stanford: Definitely. St. Joe's had the best shot of any team to beat a No. 1 seed Saturday in the final few minutes but couldn't seal the deal in San Diego.
Michigan State: Hey, they won it all last year and have gotten this far. You have to be both lucky and good to do that, but haven't needed any good fortune title defense -- yet.
Kentucky: Getting past Holy Cross in a one-possession victory should just about use up all the Wildcats' luck. Or, it could signal good fortune awaits.
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TOTAL
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21
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21
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20.5
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19
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19
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20
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21.5
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18
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So, the numbers say Stanford out of the West; Arizona out of the Midwest; Duke out of the East and the Spartans will repeat. But the only numbers that count are on the Metrodome scoreboard on April 2. All these number really prove is how close these eight teams are, and how much fun the next week should be.
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