Playoffs 2000:Dr. Jack's Breakdown: Pacers-Lakers

Dr. Jack's Breakdown: Pacers-Lakers
By Dr. Jack Ramsay
Special to ESPN.com

Pacers (56-26) vs. Lakers (67-15)

Hall of Fame coach Dr. Jack Ramsay provides analysis for ESPN on ESPN Radio, SportsCenter and NBA Today. Here he breaks down the playoffs for ESPN.com. The color analyst for the Heat, Ramsay's impressive résumé includes making the playoffs in 16 of his 20 seasons as coach and winning an NBA title with Portland in 1977.
Throughout the 2000 playoffs, Dr. Jack will break down each series from the backcourts to intangibles. Look for his analysis from the first round all the way through to the NBA Finals.

BACKCOURT

EDGE

I'd say it's a pretty even backcourt matchup. The two teams have great players in Reggie Miller and Kobe Bryant and two veteran, skilled players in Mark Jackson and Ron Harper, who don't really dominate the game but who are important to their team. The matchup between Miller and Bryant is a great one. The only question is if coach Phil Jackson will want Kobe chasing Miller around and risk foul trouble because Miller moves without the ball better than anybody in the game. But Kobe loves challenges and is a very good defender. Miller has the major defensive problem of handling Kobe. At point guard, Harper's size will limit Jackson's post-up game, which has paid dividends for the Pacers. They will try it, though. Off the bench, Travis Best will face Derek Fisher, a very good defender, who will try to limit Best's penetration and offensive production. In the Pacers' win over the Lakers on Jan. 14, Best had a big game off the bench with 12 points and six assists. Also for the Lakers, Brian Shaw, who played a huge role in the Lakers' Game 7 win over Portland, can come off the bench as a point or two guard. He will get his whacks at Miller.

EVEN

FRONTCOURT

EDGE

I like the Pacers because of the matchups at forward. Dale Davis has the edge over A.C. Green, and Jalen Rose has the same' advantage over Glen Rice. It's a tough matchup for both Green and Rice. Davis is bigger than Green and a very strong board man. The only advantage for the Lakers is when Robert Horry enters the game. He can draw Davis away from basket and can put the ball on the floor. Rose, however, needs to play a very high-quality game. He had a poor Game 6 against the Knicks. The Finals might give Jalen an opportunity to do some good things for the Pacers because Rice defensively can't handle him. Rose can put the ball on the floor and post up, and Rice is an afterthought in the Lakers' offense. Rick Fox will come in the game to spell Rice, but Rose can handle him, as well. Austin Croshere is the first big forward to enter the game for the Pacers, and he can handle both Green and Horry. But it's his first Finals. After a big Game 1 against the Knicks, he disappeared quietly into the woodwork. The Pacers need something from him to be competitive. At center, Shaquille O'Neal is the problem for the Pacers. Rik Smits can't stop Shaq. Davis may be asked to defend Shaq, and little-used 7-footer Zan Tabak may come in to bang around. But the Pacers have nobody to match Shaq. I'm sure they watched the Portland series with interest, though. They will play off Harper and Green, daring them to shoot. Meanwhile, Smits can shoot and take Shaq away form basket, working off screens. If Smits gets his game going, he can be a problem for the Lakers.

BENCH

EDGE

The plusses for the Lakers are Horry, Shaw and Fisher. When the Lakers were at their best during the season, the bench gave them defense and occasional scoring. That's how they need to excel against the Pacers. The plusses for the Pacers are Croshere, Best, Derrick McKey and Sam Perkins. They have a nice combination that can score and defend. McKey is a solid defender, and Perkins, if he's used at center, can draw Shaq out as a three-point threat. Otherwise, Perkins can't defend Shaq. In Perkins, if you use him at center and just draw Shaq out, they have the three-point threat. But he can't defend Shaq. Nobody can.

EVEN

INTANGIBLES

EDGE

It's the first trip to the NBA Finals for most of the players. The Pacers are the more veteran team, even though the Lakers have several players with Finals experience, including Harper, Green, Horry, Shaq and Shaw. The Lakers have seemingly regressed in their game since the regular season. Actually, I'm surprised how repetitious and unproductive they have gotten with their offense. They need to step up on offense, get the ball to Shaq, take advantage of Kobe's skills, and get some shots for Rice. They were fortunate to have won the Western Conference finals. The Lakers can't be pleased with what they are doing. If they make good decisions, that can be an intangible. On the other side, the Pacers are thrilled to be in the Finals. They see this as a chance to win the title. And they believe they can. They might have a higher level of self-confidence then the Lakers have. But it could explode in the first game.

PREDICTION

Lakers in six. But I don't like the way they are playing. If they don't play better, they can be beat. I think the problems have been the offense and Shaq's passive defense. Team defense, not the triangle offense, was the reason the Lakers became the NBA's best team. The Lakers were first during the season in field-goal percentage allowed, and Shaq was the major difference. He has had a softer defensive game in the playoffs. If he continues in that direction, the Lakers will open the door for the Pacers. And if they don't revitalize the offense, the Lakers could lose.