By David Aldridge Special to ESPN.com  The NBA Finals are set. They start Saturday in Los Angeles.
The Western Conference finals are like the NFC Championship used to be a few years ago, when the Cowboys and Giants and 49ers and Packers slugged it out. The true championship, the smart guys say, will be decided here.
Lakers versus Blazers, Phil versus Scottie, Shaq and Kobe versus Sheed and Smitty. The two best teams in the league, they've been eyeing each
other all season. Talk of one gets the other all riled.
Subplots abound. Phil Jackson and Scottie Pippen, each looking for that post-Michael title that will solidify him as worthy in his own right. Does anyone know the triangle (and how to sabotage it) better than Pippen? Does anyone know how to push Pip's buttons better than Big Chief Triangle?
The principals: Ron Harper vs. Damon Stoudamire; Kobe Bryant vs. Steve Smith. If I'm the Blazers, I make Harper beat me again and again from the perimeter. Smith has no chances guarding Kobe in space; I suspect Portland will put Pippen on Bryant and leave Smith on Rice. Stoudamire was pretty good against Utah and with his quickness, he should be able to get into the paint against Harper and Rice and force Shaq to step out -- unless Jackson puts Kobe on him. The potential switches are intriguing in and of themselves. EDGE: Portland. Starting forwards The principals: Glen Rice vs. Scottie Pippen; A.C. Green vs. Rasheed Wallace. Rice will have to put the ball on the floor in this series. Whether it's Pippen or Smith, both will play him for the jumper. The reason they can is because the Blazers will no doubt double-team Shaq with the 6-foot-11 Wallace, figuring Pippen can get to Green in time to negate weakside action. Big-big double teams are one of the few things the Daddy still needs to show he can beat. And Pippen is quicker in the paint defensively than anyone the Lake Show has seen. L.A. has no one who can handle Wallace on the block, and unlike Chris Webber, Sheed has consistent perimeter skills. Of course, Sheed could be in the locker room with multiple Ts on him by the time it matters. He must keep his head and stay out of foul trouble trying to help Sabonis. If he does, the Blazers win. EDGE: Portland. Starting centers The principals: Shaquille O'Neal vs. Arvydas Sabonis. The Diesel has feasted on Sabas the last two playoffs. Too quick, too big, tough physical. He's gotten Sabonis in foul trouble; Sabonis has never made Shaq come out by consistently hitting the 18-footers he drains against everyone else. But Sabonis is healthier now after spraining his ankle late in the regular season. Shaq will put up huge numbers; no one can stop him. But Portland can double him with bigs: Wallace, Brian Grant, maybe even Jermaine O'Neal. The Spurs gave Shaq problems when they brought Tim Duncan and Will Perdue to give help to David Robinson. It's the only thing that's left to try. EDGE: Los Angeles. The benches The principals: Derek Fisher vs. Greg Anthony; Rick Fox vs. Detlef Schrempf; Robert Horry vs. Brian Grant; Brian Shaw vs. Bonzi Wells. No one talks about these matchups, and they'll probably determine the series. If Horry can keep the peripatetic Grant off the offensive glass and get his hands on some loose balls; if Fisher can do what John Stockton couldn't and shake Anthony; if Fox can hit a couple of 3-pointers and loosen up things for Kobe's sorties to the hole; if Shaw gets in the passing lanes and strips Wallace in the paint, the Lakers cruise at home and probably steal one on the road. If Grant exposes L.A.'s fours underneath and gives weakside defensive support; if Schrempf has Emerald City Flashbacks and hits double figures a time or two; if Anthony plays flypaper D down the stretch and comes up with a key steal; if Wells forgets he shouldn't be playing in key spots and abuses the Lakers on the block like he did Jeff Hornacek, the Blazers gain a split of the first two games and put doubt in the Laker minds. I'm guessing the former happens more than the latter. EDGE: Los Angeles. The coaches The principals: Phil Jackson vs. Mike Dunleavy Each has trusted, capable assistants who know the nuances of the other team. Both can play the media game -- Dunleavy is already planting the seed about O'Neal's illegal defenses; Jax can bait and belittle with the best of them. I'm figuring that sometime in this series, the Lakers will be in trouble. Maybe down 2-1 with Game 4 in the Rose Garden. Maybe down 3-2 going back to the Staples. And at that moment, Jackson will come up with something. Maybe in a team meeting, maybe in the media room afterward. But he'll come up with something to calm his team's jangled nerves. It's why he's here. EDGE: Los Angeles. Intangibles Home court doesn't really matter in this series, though it can get loud at the Rose Garden, and it has been surprisingly raucous in the Staples Center of late. These Blazers were built with the Lakers in mind. GM Bob Whitsitt has always been fond of collecting big men; he's consistently resisted all entreaties for Jermaine O'Neal and Grant. And now, the Blazers have 24 fouls to use on the Diesel, and they won't leave any in the holster. Pippen was brought here to take Bryant down; Smith and Schrempf were imported to bring veteran savvy to a combustible group. The Blazers coasted the last month of the regular season; we all thought it was Laker Fatigue after L.A.'s big victory in Portland on Leap Day. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. But the Blazers are playing huge right now. The Lakers have played well when they had to. They've rarely faced adversity in the playoffs, but when they did, they responded with monster efforts. It says here that they'll face more in this series than they will in the Finals. Which tells you which way I'm leaning. THE PICK: Lakers in seven. | ||||
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