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Sport Sections
Monday, April 2
Antonio Perez
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

REPORT FILED: NOVEMBER 17

"Plans that we make come to naught
Or half a page of scribbled lines"

--Roger Waters, "Time"

"I'm in the hi-fidelity First-Class travelling set
I think I need
A Lear Jet"

--Roger Waters, "Money"

With apologies to all Pink Floyd fans, I have DARK SIDE OF THE MOON playing as I write this, and these two lines reminded me of the Seattle shortstop situation. The first, of course, refers to the Mariners' dreams of having Alex Rodriguez forever in their lineup, a hope dashed by his monetary demands. You can figure out what the second one is about.

I'm not sure what Roger Waters would make of my parallels, but Roger, if you're out there, I, for one, thought AMUSED TO DEATH was brilliant.

Anyhow, while the Mariners aren't exactly happy about A-Rod going free agent, they have to take some solace in the presence of Antonio Perez in their farm system.

Antonio Perez
Seattle Mariners
Position: SS Height: 5-11 Weight: 175 Born: 7/26/81 Bats: Right Throws: Right

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1999 Rockford A 119 385 69 111 20 3 7 41 43 80 35 24 .288 .376 .410
2000 Lancaster A 98 395 90 109 36 6 17 63 58 99 28 16 .276 .376 .527

Perez was originally property of the Cincinnati Reds, a result of their renewed scouting emphasis in Latin America. A Dominican, he came to the Mariners as a key component of the Ken Griffey Jr. trade last year.

A tremendous athlete, Perez has what scouts call a "live body." He looks great in uniform, exuding energy from his muscles. He is very fast and very strong. Unlike most "tools" players you hear about, he actually has some idea how to play the game. His plate discipline is good and improving. He strikes out a bit, but he draws his share of walks. When he pays attention, he adjusts well to pitching sequences. He has power to all fields, and while he may never be a 40-homer threat in the A-Rod mode, he must be respected. Some observers compare him to Roberto Alomar in style and talent.

I don't think Perez is going to hit for a great batting average as he moves up. His .276 average from last year is nothing special for the California League, especially at Lancaster, which is a hitting haven. But given his decent strike zone judgment and the big uptick in his power numbers this year, I'm confident in his ability to be productive at higher levels. I don't know if he's going to be a .330 hitter or a .280 hitter, however.

Perez has all the tools he needs to play great defense. Range, hands, and arm strength all rate above average or better. He does get sloppy at times; he made 27 errors last year, which isn't bad at all for an A-ball shortstop, but it does show he won't be getting any Gold Gloves soon. He also needs to work on his baserunning. He relies mostly on his pure speed right now, and needs to do a better job of reading pitchers.

The main worry that people have about Perez is immaturity. He doesn't always pay attention, and has a bad habit of botching routine plays or getting mentally distracted. That isn't unusual for a 19-year-old, but it is something he will have to overcome.

Overall, I'm very impressed with what Perez did last year. The Mariners must avoid the temptation to rush him. He will need a full year of Double-A and probably a full year of Triple-A before he is ready.

Mailbag question
John M. writes: I would like to ask you a couple of questions about J.R. House, whom you wrote about last week. How much does House's age factor into his status as a prospect? I noticed that he was 19½ when he graduated from high school and that fact alone surely has helped him at every level that he has played. Also, how many strikeouts is not that many for a power hitter? If you extrapolate his strikeout totals over a 500 at-bat season he would have had more than 100. While that is not worrisome for a player with his power at the major-league level, it surely should be worrisome for someone doing it in the Sally League.

Good questions, John. I'm not especially worried about House's age. He played 2000 at age 20, which isn't overly young for the Sally League, but isn't old, either. It's not like he was some 24-year-old slugger from NCAA Division I ripping A-ball pitching with a slider-speed bat.

As for the strikeouts, they have to be considered in context. He had 91 strikeouts in 420 at-bats. Project that out to 500 at-bats ... we get 108 strikeouts, if my fuzzy math is right. He walked 46 times, which would be 55 walks in 500 at-bats. A 55/108 BB/K ratio is not outstanding, but it is far from terrible, either. If it was 130 strikeouts or something, I'd be worried. But 108 is an acceptable number if the walk rate is decent, which it is.

Still, both of your concerns are valid. Let's place a small asterisk by House's name, and see what happens next year.

Blake Z. writes: Recently, I re-read a 1999 piece of yours on Jorge Toca and Russell Branyan. We know what happened to Branyan, as he spent considerable time with Cleveland this year. What happened to Toca? Would you happen to have his minor-league stats from the 2000 season handy?

Toca spent the year at Norfolk in the International League, and didn't do particularly well: .272, 25 doubles, 11 homers, 17 walks (blech) in 453 at-bats. He has emerged as a line-drive contact hitter, but the power that he showed in 1999 was pretty much AWOL last year. He must raise his walk rate to get his on-base percentage to useful levels. Given the fact that he is going to be 30 in January, I'm not optimistic about his chances to be a decent player.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.		 


ALSO SEE
Down on the Farm 2000 archive