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Sport Sections
Monday, April 2
Juan Cruz
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

REPORT FILED: OCTOBER 28

Greetings from cloudy, rainy Arizona. I was planning on giving you a report on a Friday afternoon Arizona Fall League game, but alas, Mother Nature has played a cruel joke and decided to deluge the desert with rain. Ah, well. Let's do a regular prospect report instead.

Juan Cruz
Chicago Cubs
Position: RHP Height: 6-2 Weight: 160 Born: 10/15/80

Year Team Level G GS IP H R ER BB K W-L ERA SV
1999 Eugene A 15 15 80.1 97 59 53 33 65 5-6 5.94 0
2000 Lansing A 17 17 96.0 75 50 35 60 106 5-5 3.28 0
2000 Daytona A 8 7 44.1 30 22 16 18 54 3-0 3.25 0

The Cubs have made considerable strides upgrading their historically weak farm system. They have drafted better in recent years, and have upgraded their Latin American scouting program. Case in point: Juan Cruz, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1997.

A year ago, Cruz was a nobody. He was just another young pitcher with a live arm but a 5.94 ERA in short-season baseball. He moved up to the full-season Midwest League for 2000, and through early May it looked like even that was a mistake. His ERA was near 10.00; he had no command, and was basically overmatched by Midwest League competition.

Then something clicked. He developed more consistent mechanics, and suddenly he was able to place his 96 mph fastball, sharp slider, and adequate changeup in the strike zone. He started to overpower people, running off a streak of 10 excellent starts that lowered his ERA almost seven points.

The Cubs decided to see how he would do at a higher level, and promoted him to the Florida State League for the final five weeks of the season. Frankly, I wouldn't have done that ... I would have kept him in the Midwest League and let him continue his cycle of success, gaining confidence and experience in the process. But I'm not running a farm system, so my opinion doesn't count. The Cubs judgment proved correct: he started seven games for Daytona and did just fine. He was named the No. 2 prospect in both the Midwest and Florida State Leagues in the recent Baseball America survey, a strong testament to the progress he made this season.

So, the question now is, will he maintain this progress? Obviously, you have to love anyone who throws strikes at 95 mph. But I'm just a bit concerned that, considering how suddenly it all came together for him, it could suddenly fall apart again. He's still very young, and it's possible the improvement could stick. But I'm not especially impressed with Chicago's record with young pitchers, and I'm afraid they are going to push him too quickly.

If I were running the Cubs, I would stick Cruz in the Florida State League to start next season, and leave him there for at least 12-15 starts before considering a promotion to Double-A. He shouldn't even smell the majors before the end of 2002. Cruz needs to prove he can maintain the refinements he made in 2000. Hopefully the Cubs will show greater foresight with him than they have with guys like Kyle Farnsworth, Ruben Quevedo, and Carlos Zambrano.

Mailbag questions
Mike B. writes: Ty Wigginton has put up some pretty good numbers, last year in Binghamton and now in the AFL. Yet I've never heard him listed as a top prospect in the Mets' organization. Is he legit and does he have a future in the big leagues?

Wigginton has legitimate power, having slugged 20 homers this year in Double-A and hitting .285. I have two major concerns for him. Firstly, he is not a good defensive player, being adequate at best at second base. Secondly, his strike zone judgment is poor. He walked just 24 times while fanning 107, which is not a ratio that translates well to the major leagues.

The Mets seem to project Wigginton has a super-utility type. He could play left field, third, second, and first in their ideal world, with enough bat to pinch-hit, platoon, and cover for anyone injured at those positions. It's a good plan, if he learns to take more pitches. He drew 56 walks in 1999, so he should be able to get some of the patience back if he works at it.

Expect to see Wigginton in Triple-A next year, working on his glove versatility and his command of the zone.

Andrew writes: I am a big fan of your column and a big fan of the White Sox. What does Aaron Rowand's 2000 season mean for future development? I know it was below expectations, but not absolutely horrible.

Your assessment is fair. Rowand didn't hit as well as the White Sox expect or want, but he did manage to slug 20 homers and steal 22 bases. On the other hand, he hit just .258 and drew just 38 walks, while fanning 117 times.

Scouts like to compare Rowand to a young Tim Salmon, and he does have strong raw power. But he has to improve his approach at the plate for it to fully manifest itself. Rowand could probably hit 20 homers in the majors right now, but his batting average and on-base percentage would be prohibitively low. Expect him to be in Triple-A next year. He'll have to improve his plate discipline to avoid getting stuck as a high minor league slugger in the Adam Hyzdu mold.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.		 


ALSO SEE
Down on the Farm 2000 archive