REPORT FILED: SEPTEMBER 15
Alert reader Dave Snyder wrote me a note regarding my article about Jimmy Rollins last week.
Thanks for the review of Jimmy Rollins. However, I think you were a bit hard on him. Suggesting that he will be nothing other than a utility infielder or a "credible" starter is a bit harsh.
Dave then wrote a detailed defense of Rollins, pointing out his significant and consistent improvements across the board, as well as his solid glove work, his strong work ethic, and his youth. Looking back at the article, I think Dave is right; I was too hard on Rollins, and I like him more than the article may imply.
I'm mentioning this for two reasons. Reason one, I try to be accountable for what I write, and if I feel I've made an error in judgment or if my writing was unclear, I'll try and correct it. Secondly, today's subject, Vernon Wells, actually put up numbers a notch weaker than Rollins did this year. If I'm going to say that Wells has a shot at being a great player, I better recognize Rollins' accomplishments and potential. I try to be evenhanded about the way I judge players. One of my goals as a writer is to be logical and consistent in my approach. It doesn't always work that way, but that doesn't stop me from trying.
Vernon Wells
Toronto Blue Jays
Position: OF Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 Born: 12/8/78 Bats: Right Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1999 |
Dunedin |
A |
70 |
265 |
43 |
91 |
16 |
2 |
11 |
43 |
26 |
34 |
13 |
2 |
.343 |
.403 |
.543 |
| 1999 |
Knoxville |
AA |
26 |
106 |
18 |
36 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
17 |
12 |
15 |
6 |
2 |
.340 |
.400 |
.519 |
| 1999 |
Syracuse |
AAA |
33 |
129 |
20 |
40 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
21 |
10 |
22 |
5 |
1 |
.310 |
.357 |
.481 |
| 1999 |
Toronto |
AL |
24 |
88 |
8 |
23 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
4 |
18 |
1 |
1 |
.261 |
.293 |
.352 |
| 2000 |
Syracuse |
AAA |
127 |
493 |
76 |
120 |
31 |
7 |
16 |
66 |
48 |
88 |
23 |
4 |
.243 |
.313 |
.432 |
A year ago, Wells was hot stuff. Now, after a mediocre 2000 season, he's regarded as a question mark. Lots of fantasy players as well as Toronto Blue Jays fans pinned great hopes on Wells after his spectacular 1999 season, only to be disappointed with his performance this year. Despite his problems, I remain high on Wells and I still think he's going to be a fine player.
Wells was Toronto's first-round pick in 1997, from high school in Texas, where he was compared to a young Ron Gant. After a decent but not spectacular 1998 season, he destroyed the Florida State League during the first half of 1999. He earned a promotion to Double-A, where he lasted just 26 excellent games before moving up to the International League. He did well for Syracuse, and managed to hold his own in late season action for the Blue Jays in September. He earned top prospect ranking in three different minor leagues according to Baseball America, which is quite a feat. I ranked him as the fourth-best prospect in baseball in the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook.
The Blue Jays gave Wells a chance to beat out Jose Cruz Jr. in spring training, but Wells lost the competition and he went back to Syracuse. This made sense: he had just 59 games of experience in the high minors, and there was no particular reason to rush him.
Wells got off to a slow start this year, and never really got on track. He did hit 16 homers and steal 23 bases, being caught just four times, showing his striking combination of power potential and speed. He also hit 31 doubles, an indicator of more power to come. But he hit just .243, and his overall production was much less than expected.
What happened? I think it was just a hangover of his rapid ascent in 1999. His strike zone judgment wasn't good for the Blue Jays last September, which was a fair indicator that he wouldn't be ready for the majors this year.
In general, I'm not especially worried about Wells. He drew an adequate number of walks this year, and his strikeout rate was within bounds. He needs to tighten up command of the zone, but he's not a wild swinger in the Derrick Gibson mode. His defense is fine, and he's increasingly confident and polished about the little things.
Although I won't be putting Wells in my top 10 prospects in 2001, I still think he is a very valuable property and a potential star. Another mediocre season might make me change my mind about that, but right now I expect Wells to have a breakout season in 2001.
Mailbag questions
Whit M. writes: Why did Chin-Feng Chen at San Antonio have such a dismal year? Did you see him play? He struck out alot (ech), he was caught stealing almost as often as he made it (double-ech), and his slugging percentage was .375 (triple-ech) in the Texas League of all places (quadruple-ech). What happened?
I wish I knew. I saw Chen once and he looked good in the game I witnessed. People I talked with who saw him more said that he looked like he was pressing, and just a bit overmatched against Double-A pitching.
For the record, he hit .277 with just six homers. Although he fanned 131 times in 133 games, he did manage to draw 61 walks, so we're not talking about a complete and utter failure here, just a major disappointment. He turns 23 in October, which isn't ancient but isn't super-young for a prospect, either. I guess we'll just have to see what happens next year; it is too early to give up on him.
Jon B. writes: I was wondering if you thought Reggie Taylor has made any progress this year. Do you see Philadelphia in his future any time soon?
Taylor hit .275 in 98 games, with 15 homers and 23 steals. He still has those great tools that scouts love, and while he has made some progress, I remain concerned. His walk/strikeout ratio was weak at 21/87 in 422 at-bats, and despite his speed, he was caught 13 times.
To be honest, I think it is very unlikely that Taylor will ever develop into any sort of star. I think he'll be a Chris Singleton-type, maybe having one good season at 27 or 28, but otherwise he will be best cast as a reserve due to his speed and glove.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | |
ALSO SEE
Down on the Farm archive
 |
