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Friday, August 18
Roy Oswalt



REPORT FILED: AUGUST 18

Two tidbits of information before we begin.

First of all, I received a very nice e-mail from Jesus Colome's agent, Rob Plummer, last week. Mr. Plummer tells me that there was never any intent at deception with regards to Colome's birthday, and that the whole thing was an honest error in the Oakland media guide. Everyone (except media people like me who got their info from the media guide) knew how old Colome really was, so this isn't one of those freaky Adrian Beltre/Rafael Furcal birth certificate "inaccuracy" things.

Secondly, this year I'm once again going to speak at the Arizona Fall League Fantasy Baseball symposium. It's a lot of fun, and I urge anyone interested to look into going. You can find more information about this at http://www.baseballhq.com/afl2000/home.html.

Roy Oswalt
Houston Astros
Position: RHP Height: 6-0 Weight: 175 Born: 8/29/77

Year Team Level G GS IP H R ER BB K W-L ERA SV
1999 Michigan A 22 22 151.1 144 78 75 54 143 13-4 4.46 0
2000 Kissemmee A 8 8 45.1 52 15 15 11 47 4-3 2.98 0
2000 Round Rock AA 16 15 106.2 89 31 24 20 119 10-3 2.03 0

Ever heard of this guy? Probably not. That will change soon.

Oswalt isn't a glamour prospect; he wasn't a first-round pick, isn't a gigantic hulk on the mound, and doesn't throw 98 mph. But don't underestimate this guy: he can really pitch.

The Astros originally drafted Oswalt in 1996, as a 23rd-round pick out of high school in Mississippi. He didn't sign right away, but instead attended junior college. That's called the "draft and follow" approach of drafting, and the Astros are one of the teams that makes extensive use of that tactic.

Oswalt's record in the low minors was mixed. He was mediocre in 1997, then excellent in short-season ball in 1998. Last year in the Midwest League, Oswalt attracted attention with his excellent 13-4 record. On the other hand, his ERA of 4.46 wasn't too good, especially by Midwest League standards. On the third hand, his 143/54 K/BB ratio was solid, and a better indicator of future success than the won-loss record or even the ERA.

Oswalt started this season in the Florida State League, and pitched well enough in eight starts to earn a promotion to the tough Texas League. To say that Roy has done well for Round Rock is an understatement: he's been brilliant.

A 10-3 record and 2.03 ERA hold up in any league, but a deeper look at his numbers reveals a truly superb season. 119 strikeouts in 106.2 innings is terrific, but combine that with just 20 walks, and you have a tremendous K/BB ratio. Also note his hits-to-innings ratio: just 89 hits allowed is excellent.

Scouts like Oswalt for his stuff: he owns a 92-94 mph fastball, a good curve, and an improving changeup. Obviously his command and control are sharp, and he knows how to pitch.

Great numbers and good scouting reports make Oswalt one of my favorite unheralded prospects.

Mailbag questions
Chris F. writes: I can't believe more isn't being made of this. Leslie Brea, considered the second-best prospect the O's received in their huge trading-deadline purge, announced that he's five years older than people believed. This changes him from being one of the O's best pitching prospects to essentially a non-prospect. Do you believe the Mets knew about this before the trade? Do the Orioles have any recourse for this?

From what I understand, the Mets suspected that Brea was older than he claimed, but had no specific information about how old he actually was. I had heard rumors about Brea while he was still in the Mariners system a couple of years ago, so if the Orioles didn't at least have some warning about Brea, they weren't paying attention. I doubt the Orange Birds will have any recourse about the transaction; as long as a player is healthy, it is awfully hard to invalidate a transaction.

As for Brea being worthless, even though he is really 26, that doesn't mean he won't turn into something worthwhile. He does throw hard, and lots of pitchers develop in their mid-to-late 20s. Yes, Baltimore didn't get the young pitcher that was advertised, but it's not like Brea is Tim Belcher or something.

Bernard A. writes: What are the chances of Troy Cameron making it to the majors? I know he's struggling and Chipper Jones is blocking his path to the majors. What's the overall scouting report on him?

Cameron was drafted in the first round by the Braves in 1997. He has raw power, but has been unable to translate his strength into actual production at the plate. He hit 21 homers in the Sally League in 1998, then 22 in 1999. He moved up to the Carolina League for 2000, but has struggled badly against better pitching, hitting just .207 with 115 strikeouts in 108 games.

Does he still have a chance to develop? He's only 21, so yes, it isn't too late for him. But he has a lot of work to do. Chipper Jones is the least of Cameron's worries; he has to master A-ball pitching before he can even think about the majors.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
 


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