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Sunday, August 13
Luke Prokopec



REPORT FILED: AUGUST 11

First off, a correction from last week. I received several e-mails regarding Jesus Colome, pointing out that his birthday was actually March 23, 1979. This was revealed this spring, as another case of an inaccurate birthday being listed for a player born in Latin America. That means he is 21 rather than 20, still very young of course and still a stellar prospect.

And in case you wanted to know even more about Colome and some other players in the Oakland organization, check out this web page: http://baseball_gal.tripod.com/Colome.html. It's amazing what you can find on the internet these days.

Today we switch to the National League and look at another pitcher several people have asked me about, Luke Prokopec of the Dodgers.

Luke Prokopec
Los Angeles Dodgers
Position: RHP Height: 5-11 Weight: 175 Born: 2/23/78

Year Team Level G GS IP H R ER BB K W-L ERA SV
1999 San Antonio AA 27 27 157.2 172 113 95 46 128 8-12 5.42 0
2000 San Antonio AA 18 18 101.2 90 28 26 17 113 7-2 2.30 0

Prokopec is an Australian originally signed by the Dodgers as a catcher/outfielder in 1995. He didn't do well with the bat, so rather than just releasing him, the Dodgers moved him to the pitching mound because of his strong arm.

Prokopec was a hot property after his strong 1998 season. He went 8-5, 2.69 in 20 California League starts, then went 3-0, 1.38 in five starts in Double-A at the end of the season. He had a terrific combined K/BB ratio of 173/46, and began appearing on top prospect lists. The Dodgers brain trust praised him as one of the best prospects in the system, with predictions that a major league job could be his by 2000.

It didn't happen. As quickly as Prokopec's stock rose, it fell again after a weak 1999 season for San Antonio. Although he maintained very good control numbers, his strikeout rate fell and his hits/per/inning shot up, resulting in a 5.42 ERA. It looked like he had been overhyped as a prospect, and his status fell so badly that Los Angeles removed him from the 40-man roster.

Well, move forward another year and all of a sudden he is hot again. Luke is now looking more like the pitcher who blitzed the Cal League two years ago, with exceptional control numbers, a high strikeout rate, and terrific ERA. His name is being mentioned again as a prospect, and indeed, anyone with numbers like that in the Texas League deserves respect. We may see him in September, and he'll have an outside chance at earning a major league job next spring, though a season in Triple-A is both advisable and likely.

We know his numbers, but what does he throw? Prokopec's fastball generates mixed reviews. It is timed anywhere from 88 to 92 mph; when I've seen him it has been in the lower range, but I've heard reports of better velocity from Texas League observers. His curveball and changeup are both very good, and when he is confident in his stuff and throwing strikes, he keeps hitters off balance. He throws hard enough that he isn't a true finesse pitcher, but he's not exactly a power guy, either. I would compare him to a younger Kevin Tapani: good but not great velocity, with excellent command when all is going well.

Prokopec is probably the kind of guy that will need some adjustment time at each level, so don't expect him to take the Pacific Coast League by storm, or rush his way into the rotation. Long-term, I like his chances to be a solid major league pitcher. He's still just 22, and has plenty of time left to develop.

Mailbag questions
Adam W. writes: Hey John, how far away is C.C. Sabathia from helping the Indians in some capacity?

You have to love Sabathia's combination of talent and skills. He's huge, he throws very hard, he has a killer curveball, and he has shown surprisingly good pitching aptitude for a guy who is supposed to be raw. I expect we will see him being given a chance to make the rotation next spring.

Personally, I think they need to be careful. He has a history of injury, and he just turned 20 a few weeks ago, so there is no need to rush him. Given Cleveland's need for pitching, it will be tempting to push him due to his exceptional talent, but I really think Sabathia will need a year of Triple-A before he is ready to step forward in the majors. I tend to be cautious with young pitching; perhaps after their depressing experience with Jaret Wright, the Indians will be too.

Zach M. writes: I was wondering what you thought of the White Sox paying $5.3 million to Joe Borchard? Is he worth it?

Well, obviously the White Sox think he is. Scouts love Borchard's combination of athleticism, speed, and strength. If he develops the way they expect, he will be a multi-skilled, multi-tooled outfielder. Until he gets to play the jury has to be out.

He could develop into a J.D. Drew clone ... but he could also develop into Shea Morenz. Remember him? Everything people said about Borchard they said about Morenz, the former University of Texas quarterback and Yankee first-round pick, who was supposed to be the next Mickey Mantle, but who hasn't been able to turn his athletic tools into baseball skills.

Michael A. writes: Is Ben Petrick going to be the Rockies' catcher next year, or will Brent Mayne still be starting?

I think the chances are good that Petrick will be the starter. He has nothing left to prove in Triple-A, at least with the bat. The questions are about his defense. He doesn't make a ton of errors, but there are concerns that he isn't good at throwing out runners.

Frankly, I think that's overrated as an issue, but most managers are very concerned about it. If the Rocks are satisfied with his glove next spring, Petrick should be the man, though they will probably keep Mayne around as insurance should the youngster get hurt or have defensive troubles.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
 


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