REPORT FILED: JUNE 30
Here are two guys dominating the Texas League this year: Alex Cabrera of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Pena of the Rangers.
Alex Cabrera
Arizona Diamondbacks
Position: 1B Height: 6-3 Weight: 235 Born: 12/24/71 Bats: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 2000 |
Tucson |
AAA |
11 |
41 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
.317 |
.333 |
.537 |
| 2000 |
El Paso |
AA |
52 |
207 |
55 |
80 |
19 |
2 |
34 |
80 |
25 |
51 |
3 |
3 |
.386 |
.453 |
.990 |
One of the most common questions I have received this year is this: Who the heck is Alex Cabrera?
The numbers this guy posted in the Texas League before his recent promotion to the majors are mind-boggling. 34 homers in 52 games? 80 RBI? .990 slugging percentage? Sure, this is the Texas League, and El Paso is a big-time hitter's park. But even if you deflate these numbers by 20 percent to account for park and league effects, they are still excellent.
So, who is this guy?
Cabrera was originally signed by the Cubs out of Venezuela. He demonstrated power potential in the low minors. My friend Eddie Epstein put Cabrera in the first edition of the Minor League Scouting Notebook in 1995, giving him a Grade C-. Although he hit 24 homers and batted .278 at Class A Peoria in 1994, Cabrera showed very poor strike zone judgment, drawing just 19 walks and fanning 92 times in 121 games. The Cubs concluded that Cabrera's inability to make consistent contact, as well as his poor defense, would prevent him from doing well in the high minors. He was released in 1996.
Cabrera drifted to the Mexican League, playing there in 1997 and 1998. He spent 1999 in Taiwan, hitting .325 with 18 homers for the China Trust Whales. The Diamondbacks, willing to sign players with any sort of pedigree, picked him up as roster filler for 2000.
He began this year in Triple-A, but was demoted to Double-A after 11 games in order to give El Paso prospect Jack Cust some protection in the lineup. He completely annihilated the opposition, and with Erubiel Durazo bothered by a wrist injury, he's now getting a chance to show what he can do in the majors.
What can we expect from this guy? First of all, at age 28, he can't really be considered a "prospect" in the sense that he won't improve much beyond what he already is. That doesn't mean he can't contribute of course, and obviously his power is for real.
I saw Cabrera play a couple of weeks ago before his promotion. He has a huge swing, and couldn't catch up with Wichita pitcher Junior Guerrero's 94-mph fastball, fanning twice against him. While Cabrera drives the ball a million miles when he makes contact, he still has problems controlling the strike zone. Even this year he's been striking out once a game. He does his best work against mediocre pitching, and has difficulty catching up with above-average fastballs, or at least he did in the game I saw. He isn't much of a defensive player, and his best role would be as a DH.
If someone gave Cabrera 500 at-bats, I expect he'd hit 25-30 homers, strike out 150 times, and hit anywhere between .230 and .270.
Carlos Pena
Texas Rangers
Position: 1B Height: 6-2 Weight: 210 Born: 5/17/78 Bats: Left
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1999 |
Charlotte |
A |
136 |
501 |
85 |
128 |
31 |
8 |
18 |
103 |
74 |
135 |
2 |
5 |
.255 |
.365 |
.457 |
| 2000 |
Tulsa |
AA |
75 |
280 |
63 |
88 |
17 |
1 |
17 |
69 |
58 |
51 |
7 |
0 |
.314 |
.432 |
.564 |
Carlos Pena was Texas' first-round pick in 1998, out of college at Northeastern University. I'm very impressed with the progress he has made this season. Cabrera's dominance of the Texas League has obscured Pena to some extent, but Pena is a much better prospect due to his youth.
Pena's 1999 season in the Florida State League was mildly disappointing. He hit 18 homers and 31 doubles, and showed himself willing to take a walk. But his batting average was disappointing, and he struck out too often. Some observers felt he was too passive at the plate, and might struggle at higher levels. On the other hand, he was just 21 years old, having been a bit younger than most of the college players in his draft class, giving him plenty of time to improve and develop.
This season has gone very well for the young slugger. He's nearly matched his home run output for all of last year, and is on course to break 30 homers. He's done this while raising his batting average and improving his strike zone judgment, an excellent sign regarding his ability to make adjustments. He's even shown the ability to steal some bases this year despite little natural speed, and in general is playing with more confidence. Scouts have always liked his work ethic and intelligence.
Pena has good range around the bag and a strong arm, but is still a bit error-prone, having made 10 miscues so far this year. He is not an iron-glove by any means, and will be a defensive asset in the majors once he gets more experience.
The Rangers have no intention of rushing Pena before he is ready, and it's a good bet he'll get at least a half season of Triple-A under his belt before he gets a full opportunity in the majors. Although he doesn't project as a 50-homer force in the majors or anything, he should be an excellent across-the-board player at first base, contributing to future Rangers teams with both his bat and his glove.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2000 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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